---
title: "南亚科技毛利率85.7%,一张闪迪SD卡标价6500比索,涨至2023年的九倍"
description: "南亚科技创纪录的单季业绩,源于低价DRAM长约到期;这笔账单已经传导到零售货架,一张SD卡的标价涨到2023年的九倍多。闪迪10月29日发布的季报,将为这一风险定价。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Silicon"
published: 2026-10-12T13:22:53.894Z
modified: 2026-10-12T13:22:53.894Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/a-sandisk-sd-card-lists-at-6-500-pesos-nine-times-its-2023-price-as-nanya-posts-an-85-7-margin/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Memory, DRAM, NAND, Pricing, Sandisk"
---

# 南亚科技毛利率85.7%,一张闪迪SD卡标价6500比索,涨至2023年的九倍

> 南亚科技创纪录的单季业绩,源于低价DRAM长约到期;这笔账单已经传导到零售货架,一张SD卡的标价涨到2023年的九倍多。闪迪10月29日发布的季报,将为这一风险定价。

## 一张SD卡的标价,已是2023年的九倍

2023年,64GB [闪迪](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sandisk) Extreme Pro SD卡售价不到700菲律宾比索[1]。如今同一张卡、规格不变,[在闪迪自家菲律宾官方商店的标价已涨到6500比索](https://unbox.ph/news/did-sandisk-sd-card-price-hike/),该店同时仍挂着一条旧商品页,标价约2000比索[1]。两家相机零售商的价格介于两端之间,分别为2375比索和2675比索[1]。低价那条链接库存所剩无几,暗示旧批次正在清仓,更贵的一批随后就到[1]。

*Chart: **一张64GB卡、五个价格:闪迪官方新标价达旧标价的三倍多** 柱状图:一张64GB闪迪Extreme Pro SD卡以菲律宾比索计的五个价格,从2023年的不到700比索,到官方商店新标价的6500比索。*

*2026年10月,一张64GB闪迪Extreme Pro的各档标价,单位为菲律宾比索。2023年一栏为对当年市面零售价的回溯(不足700比索);官方商店旧标价为约数。资料来源:Unbox.ph。 [1]*

## 低价长约到期,南亚科技毛利率跳升六个百分点

产业链另一端于10月12日发布财报[2][3]。[南亚科技](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nanya-technology)[公布创纪录的第三季度业绩](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20261012PD236/nanya-technology-low-priced-dram-gross-margin-2026.html):营收新台币1336.5亿元,环比增长61.9%[3][4];毛利率85.7%,上一季度为79.5%[2][3]。仅9月单月营收就同比增长576.62%[4]。个中机制,公司披露写得很清楚:低价长期合约到期,DRAM平均售价环比上涨超过60%[2]。机构估算,第三季度出货量仅增长约5%,价格上涨约50%——拉动这个季度的是价格,不是出货量[4]。

## 两端的关联是推断,而非引证

本篇查阅的来源中,没有一个把两端联系起来:南亚科技的毛利率来自DRAM合约,SD卡存储用的是NAND闪存,两个市场分别定价[2][5]。把两端读作[同一场由AI驱动的短缺](https://theinference.org/article/ai-s-power-bill-lands-on-the-cheapest-chips-in-your-car)——从合约续签一路传导到零售货架——是本文的解读,属于推断。可以证实的版本要窄一些:NAND晶圆价格已涨至历史新高,[零售渠道越来越难以消化](https://theinference.org/article/the-galaxy-s26-s-100-hike-is-a-memory-invoice-with-the-buyer-s-name-on-it)[5],而6500比索的标价正是出现在同一季度[1]。

## 第四季度逾六成供货已售出,价格更高

南亚科技第四季度供货已有超过60%签入合约,价格预计再涨约10%;公司目前只能满足客户需求的50%至60%,部分大客户已拿不到配额[3][4]。[集邦咨询(TrendForce)](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/06/news-nanya-dram-asp-seen-rising-10-in-4q26-winbond-also-sees-further-price-gains-as-memory-supply-stays-tight/)预计,[本季度常规DRAM合约价将再涨10%至15%,NAND合约价上涨15%至20%](https://www.techpowerup.com/353292/ai-server-demand-sustains-memory-contract-price-increases-in-4q26-while-consumer-side-pressure-persists)[4][5]。

## 闪迪自己的业绩指引已经趋平

闪迪截至7月的季度呈现同样的特征:营收环比增长51%,至89.7亿美元,增量约三分之二来自涨价;毛利率在两个季度内从50.9%升至84.6%[6]。此后三个交易日,公司股价累计下跌8%[7]。[对10月29日公布业绩的那个季度,公司给出的业绩指引将毛利率持平在83%至85%](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/12/sandisk-s-sales-fell-38-in-the-last-flash-memory-downturn-and-its-oct-29-report-is-the-next-test/)[6][8]。上一轮下行周期解释了市场为何紧张:2023财年营收下降38%,毛利率从33.3%跌至7.1%,价格掉头后两个季度内便转负[6]。

*Chart: **闪迪毛利率的一轮起落:从2023年谷底的-12.3%升至84.6%,新业绩指引持平** 闪迪季度毛利率折线图:2023年三季度跌至-12.3%,其后在2024年和2025年逐步回升,最近三个季度先后跃升至50.9%、78.4%和84.6%;2026年10月季度的业绩指引则持平在83%至85%。*

*闪迪季度毛利率,以占营收的百分比计,数据取自公司向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件,财季按对应日历季度标注。最后一个数据点是公司对10月29日公布业绩那个季度给出的业绩指引,即处于83%至85%区间的估计值。资料来源:闪迪向SEC提交文件中的季度数据,检索于2026年10月12日[13]。 [13]*

## 卖方目标价远高于现价

卖方对闪迪的一致目标价为2,113.92美元,10月5日股价为1,709.88美元;到10月12日,股价已跌至1,640美元附近,跌势只是让两者差距越拉越大[9][6]。在股价年内累计上涨628%的背景下,Rosenblatt给出的目标价为2,400美元,伯恩斯坦则为3,000美元[9][10]。日本券商大和[于10月8日将南亚科技目标价从650新台币上调至700新台币](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/daiwa-hebt-ziel-auf-700-twd-an-und-bestaetigt-kaufen-fuer-nanya-tech-aktie/70298865),理由是DRAM价格上涨以及DDR4预计将出现短缺;南亚科技股价现报527新台币,处于85至569新台币的52周区间上沿附近[3]。这些保护并非虚设:闪迪939亿美元的已签约营收设有价格下限[6][10]。只是,还没有哪一轮下行周期真正检验过这些下限[6]。

## 这轮涨势终将落幕:要么新供给入场,要么买家不再买单

中国的长鑫存储(CXMT)已把业务重心从消费级内存转向服务器,并[计划年底前推出DDR5 RDIMM(服务器使用的带寄存器内存模组)](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/12/news-cxmt-accelerates-4f%c2%b2-dram-push-eyes-year-end-server-ddr5-rdimm-launch/),采用4F²工艺;这种工艺的存储单元更小,同等面积下密度可提升30%至50%[11][12]。按营收计,长鑫已在全球DRAM市场排名第四,份额为9.5%,位列三星、[SK海力士](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix)和[美光](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron)之后[11]。眼下有两个观察指标:一是10月29日闪迪的财报里,涨价是否仍在拉动环比增长[6];二是那张标价6,500比索的SD卡是否还卖得动[1]。如果买家在长鑫的模组大规模出货之前就已停止买单,那么这轮周期将终结于需求,而非供给。

## Takeaway

南亚科技85.7%的毛利率,说明低价DRAM长约到期值多少钱;6500比索的SD卡,说明这笔账落到哪里;闪迪对10月29日季报给出毛利率持平的指引,这是买家是否继续买单的第一道硬考验。

## Sources

1. [Unbox.ph, Did Sandisk dramatically increase the price of its SD cards?, 12 October 2026](https://unbox.ph/news/did-sandisk-sd-card-price-hike/)
2. [DIGITIMES, Nanya gross margin hits 85.7% as low-priced DRAM contracts roll off, 12 October 2026](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20261012PD236/nanya-technology-low-priced-dram-gross-margin-2026.html)
3. [AD HOC NEWS, Daiwa hebt Ziel auf 700 TWD an und bestätigt Kaufen für Nanya-Tech-Aktie, 12 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/daiwa-hebt-ziel-auf-700-twd-an-und-bestaetigt-kaufen-fuer-nanya-tech-aktie/70298865)
4. [TrendForce, Nanya DRAM ASP Seen Rising 10% in 4Q26; Winbond Also Sees Further Price Gains as Memory Supply Stays Tight, 6 October 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/06/news-nanya-dram-asp-seen-rising-10-in-4q26-winbond-also-sees-further-price-gains-as-memory-supply-stays-tight/)
5. [TechPowerUp, AI Server Demand Sustains Memory Contract Price Increases in 4Q26, While Consumer-Side Pressure Persists (TrendForce), 1 October 2026](https://www.techpowerup.com/353292/ai-server-demand-sustains-memory-contract-price-increases-in-4q26-while-consumer-side-pressure-persists)
6. [The Motley Fool, Sandisk's Sales Fell 38% in the Last Flash Memory Downturn, and Its Oct. 29 Report Is the Next Test, 12 October 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/12/sandisk-s-sales-fell-38-in-the-last-flash-memory-downturn-and-its-oct-29-report-is-the-next-test/)
7. [Invezz, SanDisk stock is down 8% in three sessions: why are traders selling before earnings?, 12 October 2026](https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/12/sandisk-stock-is-down-8-in-three-sessions-why-are-traders-selling-before-earnings/)
8. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, Sandisk to Report First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on October 29, 2026, 29 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sandisk-report-first-quarter-fiscal-213000799.html)
9. [AD HOC NEWS, Sandisk stock heads into October 29 earnings after more than 600 percent gain, 5 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/sandisk-stock-heads-into-october-29-earnings-after-more-than-600-percent-gain/70235304)
10. [CoinCentral, SanDisk (SNDK) Stock Drops 17% in Q3 as Bernstein Sees 73% Upside, 1 October 2026](https://coincentral.com/sandisk-sndk-stock-drops-17-in-q3-as-bernstein-sees-73-upside/)
11. [TrendForce, CXMT Accelerates 4F² DRAM Push, Eyes Year-End Server DDR5 RDIMM Launch, 12 October 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/12/news-cxmt-accelerates-4f%c2%b2-dram-push-eyes-year-end-server-ddr5-rdimm-launch/)
12. [DIGITIMES, CXMT targets 2026 debut of 4F² DDR5 RDIMM in bid to challenge server DRAM rivals, 12 October 2026](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20261012VL204/cxmt-dram-ddr5-2026-manufacturing.html)
13. [Sandisk, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554)


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南亚科技毛利率85.7%,一张闪迪SD卡标价6500比索,涨至2023年的九倍 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/a-sandisk-sd-card-lists-at-6-500-pesos-nine-times-its-2023-price-as-nanya-posts-an-85-7-margin/zh-CN