---
title: "AEP's $100 billion plan serves 84 GW of signed load, with no equity number for the other $78 billion"
description: "The biggest US transmission owner has 84 GW of AI-era demand signed in take-or-pay contracts, and a $100 billion plan that leans on faster ratepayer recovery rather than an equity number. This week, Texas, the US Senate and Oklahoma opened the fight over who pays."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-11-10T14:46:04.655Z
modified: 2026-11-10T14:46:04.655Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aep-s-100-billion-plan-serves-84-gw-of-signed-load-with-no-equity-number-for-the-other-78-billion
language: en
keywords: "Utilities, Data Centers, Capital Plans, Transmission, Regulation"
---

# AEP's $100 billion plan serves 84 GW of signed load, with no equity number for the other $78 billion

> The biggest US transmission owner has 84 GW of AI-era demand signed in take-or-pay contracts, and a $100 billion plan that leans on faster ratepayer recovery rather than an equity number. This week, Texas, the US Senate and Oklahoma opened the fight over who pays.

[American Electric Power](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/american-electric-power), the utility that owns the nation's largest electric transmission system, [put the slides behind its $100 billion, 2027-2031 capital plan in front of investors](https://www.tradingview.com/news/urn:summary_document_slides:quartr.com:4536440:0-aep-84-gw-of-contracted-load-supports-a-100b-plan-targeting-13-rate-base-growth/) on November 8 [1][2]. The plan rests on 84 gigawatts of load contracted to arrive by 2031, in firm take-or-pay agreements where the customer pays whether or not it draws the power [3][4]. Demand is no longer the constraint; financing and political permission are, and both moved this week.

## The load is signed, the money is not

Contracted load rose from 69 GW to 84 GW in a single quarter, led by a 10.4-gigawatt campus in Piketon, Ohio, planned by SB Energy, an affiliate of Japan's SoftBank [4]. AEP raised the plan from $78 billion to $100 billion to serve it [4].

Rate base, the assets AEP earns a regulated return on, is guided to compound at more than 13 percent a year, and [operating earnings to grow 9 to 11 percent](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aep-reports-third-quarter-2026-earnings-expands-capital-plan-and-increases-growth-outlook-302921544.html) [3]. The hardware is the scarce part: [Tyler Page](https://theinference.org/markets/people/tyler-page), chief executive of power-plant developer [Cipher Digital](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cipher-mining), said on his earnings call, "There just aren't enough turbines and reciprocating engines in the world" [5].

## No equity number covers $78 billion of the plan

The financing is thinner. AEP said it would fund its latest addition, the $22 billion [we covered on October 29](https://theinference.org/article/american-electric-power-added-22-billion-of-spending-and-5-2-billion-of-stock-cfo-won-t-promise-24-again), with about 24 percent equity [4]. No equity number covers the remaining $78 billion of the plan [2].

Peers have sized theirs: [Ameren](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ameren), the Missouri and Illinois utility, expects about $5 billion of equity for its $38.1 billion plan, and [WEC Energy Group](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/wec-energy-group), a utility holding company with its own expanded capital plan, signed banks to sell up to $4 billion of stock [6][7]. AEP's slides instead lean on customer affordability offsets and reduced-lag recovery, collecting from ratepayers with less regulatory delay [2].

*Chart: **AEP's building program has outrun its operating cash** Line chart comparing AEP's quarterly capital spending with its operating cash flow from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026, showing capex pulling away*

*Quarterly capital spending and operating cash flow, USD billions, as reported in AEP's SEC filings; the $100B plan covers 2027-2031. [12]*

## The backlash decides who pays

Six days after AEP expanded the plan, voters pushed back. They approved [restrictions or moratoriums on 44 of 45 data-center ballot measures](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2026-11-10/from-boom-to-backlash-data-centers-lose-big-on-election-day) where vote counting is complete [8], and Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who takes office in January, wants new data centers halted until the legislature writes community protections [9].

## The Senate bill and the Oklahoma hearing test who pays

President Trump [urged senators on Sunday to make data centers](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-urges-senate-data-centers-160717056.html) "build and pay for their own electricity," and the Senate [voted 73-25 on Monday to open debate on a bill requiring large data centers to cover more of the grid costs they cause](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/senate-advances-energy-permitting-bill-opposed-by-some-democrats-tribes/ar-AA2h6aAK) [5][10]. The bill still needs House passage before the new Congress convenes on January 3 [8][10].

Oklahoma's Corporation Commission [took public comment Monday on the west section of AEP's 100-mile transmission line](https://fox23.com/news/local/public-comment-sessions-held-for-high-voltage-transmission-line-project-in-green-country), with a formal hearing Friday [11].

## The model politicians demand is already inside the plan

The model politicians demand already runs inside the plan: AEP expects up to $21 billion of fixed-cost offsets to reach residential customers from those contracts [3], and SoftBank and its affiliates are funding the roughly $5 billion transmission spine for the Ohio campus [4], the customer paying for its own wires.

What to watch: Friday's Oklahoma hearing, whether the Senate bill passes before January 3, and whether AEP puts an equity number on the remaining $78 billion.

## Takeaway

AEP's $100 billion plan rests on 84 GW of take-or-pay load, but only $22 billion of it has an equity number, and Texas, the Senate and Oklahoma are all testing who pays for the rest.

## Sources

1. [TradingView, "Weekly Recap: 84 GW load, $100B plan and Texas data-center limits", 10 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:fd37955c46ad2:0-weekly-recap-84-gw-load-100b-plan-and-texas-data-center-limits/)
2. [TradingView/Quartr summary of AEP slides release, "AEP: 84 GW of contracted load supports a $100B plan targeting 13%+ rate-base growth", 8 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/urn:summary_document_slides:quartr.com:4536440:0-aep-84-gw-of-contracted-load-supports-a-100b-plan-targeting-13-rate-base-growth/)
3. [PR Newswire / American Electric Power, "AEP Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings, Expands Capital Plan and Increases Growth Outlook", 28 October 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aep-reports-third-quarter-2026-earnings-expands-capital-plan-and-increases-growth-outlook-302921544.html)
4. [Morning Overview (Alexander Clark) via MSN, "One 10.4-gigawatt Ohio data center helped push AEP's contracted big loads up 22%, to 84 GW", 1 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/one-10-4-gigawatt-ohio-data-center-helped-push-aep-s-contracted-big-loads-up-22-to-84-gw/ar-AA2gx1vs)
5. [Yahoo Finance, "Trump Urges Senate to Make Data Centers 'Pay for Their Own Electricity.' Power Builders Stand to Gain", 9 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-urges-senate-data-centers-160717056.html)
6. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, "Ameren Q3 Earnings Call Highlights", 6 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/ameren-q3-earnings-call-highlights-011431855.html)
7. [TipRanks via The Globe and Mail, "WEC Energy Group Announces $4 Billion Equity Distribution Agreement", 5 November 2026](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/WEC/pressreleases/8688160/wec-energy-group-announces-4-billion-equity-distribution-agreement/)
8. [U.S. News & World Report, "From Boom to Backlash: Data Centers Lose Big on Election Day", 10 November 2026](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2026-11-10/from-boom-to-backlash-data-centers-lose-big-on-election-day)
9. [KHOU via Yahoo News, "Texas governor-elect wants to halt data centers. Here's why", 9 November 2026](https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/texas-governor-elect-wants-halt-132752148.html)
10. [Reuters (Nichola Groom) via MSN, "Senate advances energy permitting bill opposed by some Democrats, tribes", 9 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/senate-advances-energy-permitting-bill-opposed-by-some-democrats-tribes/ar-AA2h6aAK)
11. [KOKI FOX 23, "Public comment sessions held for high-voltage transmission line project in Green Country", 10 November 2026](https://fox23.com/news/local/public-comment-sessions-held-for-high-voltage-transmission-line-project-in-green-country)
12. [American Electric Power, quarterly capex and operating cash flow from its SEC filings, retrieved 10 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000004904)


---

AEP's $100 billion plan serves 84 GW of signed load, with no equity number for the other $78 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aep-s-100-billion-plan-serves-84-gw-of-signed-load-with-no-equity-number-for-the-other-78-billion