--- title: "AES's $33.4 billion take-private at $15 clears Europe and Chile; FERC decides the rest" description: "Europe and Chile have cleared the GIP/EQT takeover in October, and the asset keeps improving at a price fixed in March. The arb now turns on FERC, where Public Citizen and an Indiana citizens' group have challenged the buyers' 15 to 20 percent return math." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Deals" published: 2026-11-03T16:10:24.284Z modified: 2026-11-03T16:10:24.284Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aes-s-33-4-billion-take-private-at-15-clears-europe-and-chile-ferc-decides-the-rest language: en keywords: "AES, Mergers And Acquisitions, Private Equity, Energy, FERC" --- # AES's $33.4 billion take-private at $15 clears Europe and Chile; FERC decides the rest > Europe and Chile have cleared the GIP/EQT takeover in October, and the asset keeps improving at a price fixed in March. The arb now turns on FERC, where Public Citizen and an Indiana citizens' group have challenged the buyers' 15 to 20 percent return math. [AES Corporation](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/aes)'s $33.4 billion take-private at $15 a share has now cleared both foreign gates, and the last contested one is American [1][2]. The European Commission closed its foreign-subsidies review on October 28, [the day AES filed the 8-K saying so](https://secwatch.observer/filing/0001140361-26-041045) [1], and [Chile's antitrust authority approved on October 1 with no conditions](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/aes-andes-stock-faces-new-ownership-as-chile-clears-aes-sale/70440205) after finding the buyers would hold only about a tenth of Chilean generation capacity [2]. Every box checked abroad makes [the remaining spread between the $15 deal price and the market](https://theinference.org/article/aes-sits-three-cents-under-the-15-buyout-holding-for-the-dividend-pays-five-times-the-spread) a bet on FERC [1][2]. ## Every gate abroad has opened The buyer group is Global Infrastructure Partners, [BlackRock](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/blackrock)'s infrastructure arm, alongside EQT's infrastructure fund, with CalPERS, the California public employees' pension fund, holding 20 percent and Qatar's sovereign fund 10 percent [3]. Shareholders approved in June; closing is expected late 2026 or early 2027 [2]. Foreign approvals arriving on schedule usually means the paperwork is done and only the home regulator remains, and here the home regulator is contested. ## The contested gate: what has changed since our last report [We wrote on October 10](https://theinference.org/article/blackrock-s-33-4-billion-aes-buyout-turns-on-one-question-can-20-percent-money-run-a-10-percent-utility) that the deal turns on one question, whether 20 percent money can run a 10 percent utility, when Public Citizen, the Washington-based consumer advocacy group, and the Citizens Action Coalition had just filed their challenge at FERC [1][2]. What is new since is timing and teeth. The EU and Chile clearances both landed in October, after that piece [1][2]. And the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission has now [set its rehearing of a $71 million AES Indiana rate increase](https://tac-nrg.com/news/2026-10-28/aes-indianas-blackrock-buyout-rate-case-heads-to-a-march-rehearing) for March 11, 2027, a hearing that will examine how the BlackRock acquisition and a 390 megawatt Google data center factor into the utility's costs [3]. The increase reaches customer bills first, so any refund would arrive after months of higher bills [3]. GIP's documented 15 to 20 percent target return still frames both fights, but the calendar around it is now fixed [3]. ## The asset keeps improving at a fixed price Revenue rose 8.7 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2026 and about 20 percent in the second, with EBITDA up sharply in both; the negative year-over-year figures through most of 2025 make the 2026 quarters the turn, not one quarter's noise [5]. New York has also issued [final siting permits to repower six wind farms](https://www.rtoinsider.com/150265-ny-gives-aes-final-siting-permits-repower-wind-farms/) totaling up to 672 megawatts [5]. *Chart: **AES revenue and EBITDA climbed through 2026 while the deal price sat fixed** Line chart of AES quarterly revenue and EBITDA in USD billions from Q3 2024 through Q2 2026, dipping through 2025 and rising sharply into 2026.* *AES quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA, USD billions, from SEC filings; revenue and EBITDA both turned up in 2026 after weaker 2025 quarters. [6]* ## The watch list that moves the spread Three dates decide this arb, in this order. First, the open FERC decision window: approval, or conditions, moves the spread before anything else on this list does. Second, the expected late-2026 or early-2027 close, which slips if FERC extracts conditions. Third, the March 11, 2027 Indiana rehearing, which lands after closing most likely and prices the buyers' return math into the record rather than the deal itself. Conditions, not approval, are the spread risk, and FERC is where that risk lives now. ## Takeaway AES's $33.4 billion take-private at $15 has cleared the EU and Chile; the arb now rides on FERC, where Public Citizen and an Indiana citizens' group have challenged the buyers' 15 to 20 percent return math, with the close expected late 2026 or early 2027. ## Sources 1. [secwatch.observer, AES 8-K: AES clears EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation review for GIP/EQT take-private merger, October 28, 2026](https://secwatch.observer/filing/0001140361-26-041045) 2. [ad-hoc-news.de, AES Andes stock faces new ownership as Chile clears AES sale, October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/aes-andes-stock-faces-new-ownership-as-chile-clears-aes-sale/70440205) 3. [Tactical Energy Group, AES Indiana's BlackRock Buyout Rate Case Heads to a March Rehearing, October 28, 2026](https://tac-nrg.com/news/2026-10-28/aes-indianas-blackrock-buyout-rate-case-heads-to-a-march-rehearing) 5. [RTO Insider, N.Y. Gives AES Final Siting Permits to Repower 6 Wind Farms, November 1, 2026](https://www.rtoinsider.com/150265-ny-gives-aes-final-siting-permits-repower-wind-farms/) 6. [AES, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved November 3, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000874761) --- AES's $33.4 billion take-private at $15 clears Europe and Chile; FERC decides the rest — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aes-s-33-4-billion-take-private-at-15-clears-europe-and-chile-ferc-decides-the-rest