--- title: "Alchip, 34% off its high, reports October 30 with its $9.3 billion AWS forecast living only in trader posts" description: "The Taipei chip house printed second-quarter revenue down 19 percent with its 3-nanometer ramp just begun. The bull case, US$9.3 billion by 2028 from designing and building Amazon's AWS chips end to end, exists in public only as a trader post." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-15T13:24:52.135Z modified: 2026-10-15T13:24:52.135Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/alchip-34-off-its-high-reports-october-30-with-its-9-3-billion-aws-forecast-living-only-in-trader-posts language: en keywords: "Alchip, Amazon, AWS, Custom Silicon, ASICs, Earnings" --- # Alchip, 34% off its high, reports October 30 with its $9.3 billion AWS forecast living only in trader posts > The Taipei chip house printed second-quarter revenue down 19 percent with its 3-nanometer ramp just begun. The bull case, US$9.3 billion by 2028 from designing and building Amazon's AWS chips end to end, exists in public only as a trader post. ## The ramp started in May; the proof is due October 30 Johnny Shen, [Alchip's](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alchip-technologies) chairman, chief executive and president, put one fact under [the second-quarter numbers](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/alchip-technologies-reports-2026-second-130000450.html) in August: shipments of a 3-nanometer AI accelerator to a North American customer began in May, with the ramp expected to run through the third quarter [1]. Alchip does not name the client. DigiTimes has reported AWS as its main customer since 2024, the year [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon) [subscribed to Alchip shares in a private placement](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240514PD222/alchip-amazon-investment-aws-private-placement.html) [2]. The third-quarter report scheduled for October 30 is the first print that shows whether that ramp became revenue or stayed a roadmap [3]. ## The stock is 34 percent off its high and still 56 times earnings Alchip (TWSE: 3661) designs application-specific integrated circuits, chips built for one customer's workload, on a turnkey basis that runs from design through manufacturing. It last traded at TWD 3,705 on October 15, 34 percent under its TWD 5,640 high, at a TWD 304.1 billion market value [3]. The day before, at TWD 3,940, the same shares carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 56 [11]. The discount has a history: revenue fell from US$1.6 billion in 2024 to about US$992 million in 2025 after Alchip missed one product generation from its largest customer, and management guided roughly 80 percent of this year's revenue into the second half on the new 3nm programs [4]. ## Amazon licenses the blueprints, funds the boards, buys the suppliers Amazon, meanwhile, has been buying pieces of the stack that builds its chips. On September 30, AWS signed [a multi-year licensing deal worth more than US$1 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/aws-signs-1b-chip-design-134633158.html) with [Synopsys](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/synopsys), the chip-design software firm, covering Amazon's three custom chip lines, the Graviton processor, the Trainium AI accelerator and the Nitro networking and security chip, with royalties tied to production volume [5][6]. The same day brought word of [an NT$1.59 billion (US$49.88 million) Amazon placement](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260930PD245/amazon-gce-pcb-aws-2026.html) into Gold Circuit Electronics, the circuit-board maker for Trainium servers [7]. [An October 14 trader post](https://x.com/NathanCrossNC/status/2108910040719708260) adds a longer list: it counts Amazon with ownership or warrants in Applied Optoelectronics, [Marvell](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/marvell), [Astera Labs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/astera-labs), [Credo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/credo) and Alchip itself, with no terms or filings behind the count [8]. The 2024 placement already put the customer inside the designer's shareholder register [2]. [Andy Jassy](https://theinference.org/markets/people/andy-jassy), Amazon's chief executive, has put Amazon's annualized revenue from its own chips at roughly US$20 billion [6]. ## Printed revenue against a tweeted forecast The printed quarter: revenue of US$241.7 million, down 18.7 percent year over year but up about 83 percent from US$132.4 million in the first quarter; net income of US$51.8 million, up 20.7 percent; 3nm and 2nm work, 47 percent of revenue; North America, 51 percent [1]. The forecast: [a post attributed to Morgan Stanley](https://x.com/OptionKing666/status/2109966613613347215), circulating since October 13, puts Alchip's Amazon AWS turnkey revenue at US$2.8 billion in 2027 and total turnkey revenue at US$9.3 billion in 2028, with US$8 billion of that from a 2nm Trainium 4 chip [9]. [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) has named Alchip a key design provider on Trainium before [4]; no published note or filing carries these figures. *Chart: **The ramp lifted Q2 revenue 83 percent in a quarter, still 19 percent below last year** Column chart of Alchip revenue for Q2 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 in US$ millions* *Alchip quarterly revenue as printed in its Q2 2026 release, US$ millions. [1]* *Chart: **The forecast puts 2028 turnkey work at more than nine times Alchip's 2025 revenue** Column chart comparing Alchip's printed 2025 revenue with a forecast 2027 AWS turnkey figure and 2028 total turnkey figure* *Alchip FY2025 revenue as reported; 2027 and 2028 are a Morgan Stanley figure quoted in a trader post, not a published note. US$ billions. [4][9]* ## The bull case is real, just not that number TrendForce expects custom ASIC shipments to grow 44.6 percent this year against 16.1 percent for merchant GPUs, the processors [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) sells to any buyer [4]. Morgan Stanley estimated in late 2025 that more than 1.5 million Trainium chips would ship in 2026, with Alchip as a key design services provider [4]. Simply Wall St lifted its Alchip target to TWD 6,800 on October 6 [10], and [listed Taipei rival Global Unichip](https://theinference.org/article/microsoft-detailed-its-maia-300-chip-but-won-t-name-its-builder-global-unichip-is-up-288-on-the-presumption) trades at 212 times earnings to Alchip's 56 [11]. The distinction is provenance: the Q2 ramp appears in a printed earnings release, while the 2028 figure appears only in a trader's post quoting a Morgan Stanley revenue forecast for Alchip's AWS work. ## What the print has to show The checklist is short: sequential revenue against Q2's US$241.7 million, the North America share above 51 percent, the 3nm and 2nm mix, and whether the second-half weighting lands as guided. Amazon licenses the blueprints, funds the circuit boards and holds a piece of the designer; how much design margin Alchip keeps is the number October 30 starts to price. ## Takeaway Alchip reports October 30: sequential revenue, North America share and 3nm mix must show the AWS ramp in print, while the US$9.3 billion 2028 turnkey figure still lives only in a trader post. ## Sources 1. [Alchip Technologies (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance), Alchip Technologies Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results, 26 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/alchip-technologies-reports-2026-second-130000450.html) 2. [DigiTimes, Alchip to draw investment from Amazon, 15 May 2024](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240514PD222/alchip-amazon-investment-aws-private-placement.html) 3. [AD HOC NEWS, Alchip presents Synopsys paper: Alchip Technologies stock is valued at TWD 304.1 billion, 15 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/alchip-presents-synopsys-paper-alchip-technologies-stock-is-valued-at-twd-304-1-billion/70326884) 4. [TechTimes, Custom AI Chips Outpace Nvidia GPU Growth in 2026: ASIC Shipments Set to Triple GPU Rate, 26 May 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317225/20260526/custom-ai-chips-outpace-nvidia-gpu-growth-2026-asic-shipments-set-triple-gpu-rate.htm) 5. [MarketBeat via Investing.com, Why Synopsys' Amazon and OpenAI Deals Could Mark a Turning Point, 12 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/analysis/why-synopsys-amazon-and-openai-deals-could-mark-a-turning-point-200689421) 6. [Quartz via Yahoo Finance, AWS signs $1B+ chip design licensing deal with Synopsys, 30 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/aws-signs-1b-chip-design-134633158.html) 7. [DigiTimes, Gold Circuit turns Amazon into a shareholder for Trainium servers, 30 September 2026](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260930PD245/amazon-gce-pcb-aws-2026.html) 8. [X post, @NathanCrossNC on Amazon's semiconductor equity and warrant positions, 14 October 2026](https://x.com/NathanCrossNC/status/2108910040719708260) 9. [X post, @OptionKing666 citing Morgan Stanley on Alchip Amazon AWS turnkey revenue, 13 October 2026](https://x.com/OptionKing666/status/2109966613613347215) 10. [AD HOC NEWS, Simply Wall St bewertet die Alchip-Technologies-Aktie neu, 15 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/simply-wall-st-bewertet-die-alchip-technologies-aktie-neu/70325161) 11. [AD HOC NEWS, Alchip-Technologies-Aktie bei 3.940,00 TWD und 30,14 Prozent unter Hoch, 15 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/alchip-technologies-aktie-bei-3-940-00-twd-und-30-14-prozent-unter-hoch/70324357) --- Alchip, 34% off its high, reports October 30 with its $9.3 billion AWS forecast living only in trader posts — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/alchip-34-off-its-high-reports-october-30-with-its-9-3-billion-aws-forecast-living-only-in-trader-posts