--- title: "AMEC escaped the Pentagon blacklist by suing; Rmb1.98 billion of its quadrupled profit was investment gains" description: "Goldman lifted its target to Rmb582 and Nomura resumed at Buy with Rmb480, both against the October 8 close of Rmb313 on a stock already up 71%. Nearly Rmb2 billion of the quadrupled first-half profit was investment gains, not tool sales." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-09T13:19:18.668Z modified: 2026-10-09T13:19:18.668Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/amec-escaped-the-pentagon-blacklist-by-suing-rmb1-98-billion-of-its-quadrupled-profit-was-investment-gains language: en keywords: "China, Semiconductors, Price Targets, Earnings, Export Controls, AMEC" --- # AMEC escaped the Pentagon blacklist by suing; Rmb1.98 billion of its quadrupled profit was investment gains > Goldman lifted its target to Rmb582 and Nomura resumed at Buy with Rmb480, both against the October 8 close of Rmb313 on a stock already up 71%. Nearly Rmb2 billion of the quadrupled first-half profit was investment gains, not tool sales. ## Two banks stamped upside on a 71% runner [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) raised its [AMEC target](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amec) to Rmb582 from Rmb577 on October 5; two days later Nomura resumed coverage at Buy with Rmb480 [1][2]. Both are chasing a Shanghai etch-tool maker already up 71% this year [3]. The backstory is stranger than the upgrades: AMEC [sued the Pentagon in August 2024](https://www.law360.com/cases/66bd194a5346c20211dffb44) to escape its Chinese-military-companies list, and won removal that December [4][5]. The numbers behind the chase are preliminary, per [the August 4 filing](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/general/chinese-chip-tool-maker-amec-says-first-half-profit-to-nearly-quadruple-amid-soaring-demand/ar-AA29mPVP): first-half net profit of Rmb2.7 billion to Rmb2.9 billion, up 282% to 311%, on revenue up 35% at Rmb6.7 billion [6][5]. A 21-analyst consensus sits at Rmb462.03 against the October 8 close of Rmb313.24 [3]. *Chart: **All four published targets sit 47% to 86% above the October 8 close** Bar chart of published AMEC price targets: Goldman Sachs Rmb582, Jefferies Rmb490, Nomura Rmb480 and the 21-analyst consensus Rmb462.03, all above a reference line at the October 8, 2026, close of Rmb313.24.* *Twelve-month price targets in Rmb per share as published: Goldman Sachs on October 5, Nomura on October 7, Jefferies on August 24, and the 21-analyst mean, all measured against the October 8 close. All four are projections, not reported results. [1][2][3][7]* ## The quadruple is partly accounting Strip the headline before trusting it. Investment and fair-value gains, including sold Piotech shares, reached Rmb1.98 billion against Rmb168mn a year earlier [6][5]. The core tool business grew a still-explosive 86% to 122%, to Rmb1.0 billion to Rmb1.2 billion [5]. *Chart: **Paper gains were bigger than AMEC's entire core first-half profit** Bar chart of AMEC's preliminary first-half 2026 profit in Rmb billions: headline net profit Rmb2.8 billion (midpoint of a 2.7 to 2.9 range), investment and fair-value gains Rmb1.98 billion, and core adjusted profit Rmb1.1 billion (midpoint of a 1.0 to 1.2 range).* *Preliminary, unaudited H1 2026 figures from AMEC's August earnings preview. Headline and core bars show the midpoints of the guided ranges; the gains figure is stated outright. All are estimates, not reported results. [5][6]* ## Export curbs became the sales pitch Goldman sees China wafer-fab-equipment spending rising 13%, 20% and 15% through 2028 to US$61 billion [1]; Bernstein puts 2028 at US$77 billion on ChangXin and Yangtze Memory buildouts [6]. Chinese chipmakers' first-half earnings grew more than 600% on AI demand and the self-sufficiency campaign [8]. AMEC attacked that pool on September 2 with six tools at once, from extreme high-aspect-ratio etch to molybdenum ALD and silicon-carbide epitaxy [1][7]. Nomura's Buy rests on etch share gains [2], and those points come out of someone's China book: [Lam Research](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lam-research) and [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials) are AMEC's primary Western competitors, and their access is increasingly restricted [5]. ![AMEC's display of six new etch and deposition tools at CSEAC 2026](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/67da9ea9ec715242.jpg) *AMEC showed the six tools it launched on September 2, from high-aspect-ratio etch to molybdenum ALD, at CSEAC 2026; October 31 results are the first read on their shipments. (Courtesy of AMEC)* Beijing now requires at least 50% domestic equipment on new fab capacity [9]. [Applied Materials still drew US$4.18 billion, 28% of first-half revenue, from China](https://www.aol.com/articles/applied-materials-china-problem-getting-164207000.html), while trackers put domestic tools at 40% to 50% of CXMT's lines, above 60% in etch [9]. [Samsung and SK Hynix are evaluating AMEC gear for their China fabs](https://technode.com/2026/08/05/samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-evaluate-chinese-amec-tools-for-china-fabs/); no orders are confirmed [10]. The fence Washington built to keep AMEC out now keeps its customers in. ## The bill sits in the fine print Goldman, bullish target and all, [trimmed its 2026 net income forecast about 3% to Rmb5.09 billion](https://finvaulta.com/research/goldman-sachs/amec-new-tools-launched-in-etching-and-deposition-2026-10-05) on new-product ramp costs [1]. A shareholder sold a Rmb6.23 billion stake into the rally in early September [7]. [TSMC](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc) decided in 2025 to phase Chinese-made tools out of its 2nm fabs over pending US legislation, and founder Gerald Yin concedes on state television that customers still default to foreign equipment "out of habit" [5]. ## October 31 separates the two profits Third-quarter results land on October 31, the first read on shipments since the six tools launched [7]. The list fight continues without AMEC: [CXMT sued the Pentagon on August 28](https://www.reuters.com/world/cxmt-sues-pentagon-over-inclusion-list-companies-tied-chinas-military-2026-08-29/) [11], and [a judge blocked the WuXi AppTec designation in August](https://www.reuters.com/world/judge-blocks-us-decision-add-wuxi-list-companies-tied-chinese-military-2026-08-07/), calling the list a "scarlet letter" [12]. Paper gains fade; order books do not, and Q3 will show which is carrying the stock. ## Takeaway Goldman's Rmb582 and Nomura's Rmb480 targets chase a stock already up 71%, but Rmb1.98 billion of the quadrupled first-half profit was investment gains, and October 31 results are the first test of whether tool sales, not paper gains, carry it. ## Sources 1. [Finvaulta, AMEC: New Tools Launched in Etching and Deposition; Memory and Advanced Nodes Tools to Drive Growth Ahead (Goldman Sachs research summary), 5 October 2026](https://finvaulta.com/research/goldman-sachs/amec-new-tools-launched-in-etching-and-deposition-2026-10-05) 2. [Dragonomi, AMEC: Aşındırmada pazar payı kazancı (Nomura resumption, Buy, Rmb480 target), 7 October 2026](https://www.dragonomi.com/amec-asindirmada-pazar-payi-kazanci/) 3. [Zonebourse with MT Newswires, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China: Nomura reste à l'achat (close Rmb313.24, +71.14% YTD, 21 analysts, mean target Rmb462.03), 8 October 2026](https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/advanced-micro-fabrication-equipment-inc-china-nomura-reste-a-l-achat-ce785ddfd988f12c) 4. [Law360, ADVANCED MICRO-FABRICATION EQUIPMENT INC. CHINA et al v. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE et al, case 1:24-cv-02357, D.D.C., docket page collected 2 October 2026](https://www.law360.com/cases/66bd194a5346c20211dffb44) 5. [TechTimes, AMEC Plasma Etching Profit Nearly Doubled in H1 2026; TSMC Phases Out Its Tools, 3 August 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322817/20260803/amec-plasma-etching-profit-nearly-doubled-h1-2026-tsmc-phases-out-its-tools.htm) 6. [South China Morning Post via MSN, Chinese chip-tool maker AMEC says first-half profit to nearly quadruple amid soaring demand, 4 August 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/general/chinese-chip-tool-maker-amec-says-first-half-profit-to-nearly-quadruple-amid-soaring-demand/ar-AA29mPVP) 7. [MarketScreener, AMEC's Total Share Capital Rises, with MT Newswires company feed (Jefferies Rmb490 on 24 Aug, six tools 2 Sept, Rmb6.23bn stake sale 9 Sept, Q3 results 31 Oct), 13 September 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/amec-s-total-share-capital-rises-ce785bdcd888ff2c) 8. [Nikkei Asia, CXMT, SMIC power 620% surge in profits in China's chip industry, 24 September 2026](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/cxmt-smic-power-620-surge-in-profits-in-china-s-chip-industry) 9. [24/7 Wall St via AOL, Applied Materials' China Problem Is Getting Worse, 26 August 2026](https://www.aol.com/articles/applied-materials-china-problem-getting-164207000.html) 10. [TechNode, Samsung, SK Hynix reportedly evaluate Chinese AMEC tools for China fabs, 5 August 2026](https://technode.com/2026/08/05/samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-evaluate-chinese-amec-tools-for-china-fabs/) 11. [Reuters, Chipmaker CXMT sues Pentagon over 'Chinese military company' designation, 28 August 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/cxmt-sues-pentagon-over-inclusion-list-companies-tied-chinas-military-2026-08-29/) 12. [Reuters, Judge blocks US decision to add WuXi to list of firms tied to Chinese military, 7 August 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/judge-blocks-us-decision-add-wuxi-list-companies-tied-chinese-military-2026-08-07/) --- AMEC escaped the Pentagon blacklist by suing; Rmb1.98 billion of its quadrupled profit was investment gains — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/amec-escaped-the-pentagon-blacklist-by-suing-rmb1-98-billion-of-its-quadrupled-profit-was-investment-gains