--- title: "Anthropic can walk from most of its SpaceX rent on 90 days' notice as the December 8 unlock starts below $135" description: "The last lockup opens while SPCX sits under its June IPO price, Apollo's chip lease is signed, and SpaceX's biggest AI tenant can still walk on 90 days' notice." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Data Center" published: 2026-11-01T16:31:03.215Z modified: 2026-11-01T16:31:03.215Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-can-walk-from-most-of-its-spacex-rent-on-90-days-notice-as-the-december-8-unlock-starts-below-135 language: en keywords: "SpaceX, Anthropic, IPO, AI Compute, Analyst Targets" --- # Anthropic can walk from most of its SpaceX rent on 90 days' notice as the December 8 unlock starts below $135 > The last lockup opens while SPCX sits under its June IPO price, Apollo's chip lease is signed, and SpaceX's biggest AI tenant can still walk on 90 days' notice. [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) [closed Friday at $134.72, under the $135 it listed at in June](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-fell-below-ipo-213000518.html), and on December 8 the final batch of locked-up early-investor shares becomes sellable [1]. The unlock does not change what SpaceX builds. It changes who has to price it: for the first time, holders who bought before the IPO must decide whether the AI revenue that now leads this company is locked-in annuity income or cancelable tenant rent. ## The machine is real, and so is the exit door The build-out is genuine. SpaceX's AI segment, which runs the Grok chatbot and a cloud compute business, [brought in $7.6 billion of the $14.6 billion in Q3 revenue](https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/26/spacex-locks-in-40b-gpu-financing-deal-with-apollo/), [more than Starlink and rocket launches combined](https://theinference.org/article/spacex-posts-its-first-profit-4-4-billion-as-ai-compute-revenue-passes-starlink-and-launch-combined) [2]. [Apollo Global Management](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apollo-global-management) has signed a binding commitment to buy [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)'s Vera Rubin chips and lease them back to SpaceX for about five years [2]. The revenue side is rent. [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic), the Claude maker, [could pay up to $84.5 billion through 2029](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/musk-called-anthropic-evil-spacexs-160300908.html), and most of that capacity [can be canceled on 90 days' notice](https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-can-walk-from-84-5-billion-of-spacex-compute-on-90-days-notice-the-stock-is-at-103-times-sales) [3]. Five-year lease obligations against 90-day cancelable income is the whole bet in one line [3]. The credit market has already voted on that gap. SpaceX's 2056 bonds [trade near 85 cents on the dollar](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/spacex-looks-raise-40bn-buy-222855483.html), at a spread over Treasuries closer to junk than to the investment-grade label its IPO won [4]. Musk says [government revenue will run under 5% of Q4](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/musk-fires-back-spacex-government-171518159.html), so the cash engine outside AI is commercial Starlink and launch revenue [5]. That cash flow backs the lease payments. It does not back the tenant. *Chart: **The close sits below every analyst target, including the lowest** SPCX share price and analyst price targets in US dollars: the Oct 31 close sits below every target on the street.* *SPCX share price and analyst price targets, US dollars. Close and targets from TipRanks data via BeInCrypto; Oct 6 peak per Ali Charts via Blockonomi. [1][6]* ## The Street sees $250; the calendar says December 8 Analysts sit on the other side: 29 of 35 rate SpaceX a Buy with an average target of $250.34, about 86% above Friday's close, and even the lowest target sits above the price [1]. [Binance](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/binance), which holds more than $1 billion of SPCX from a $500 million bet on Musk's Twitter takeover, has its founder denying any sale and calling SpaceX one of the best stocks to hold for years [1]. The trade has a date and a price. December 18 options cost a 14% move either way, a range of $117 to $155, ten days after the unlock [1]. Every unlock so far has been absorbed: when 911 million insider shares opened on August 6, the stock rose [1]. This one starts below the IPO price, after an October in which nearly 2 billion shares unlocked and [roughly $307 billion of potential supply hit a market that then fell 24% from its peak](https://blockonomi.com/spacex-stock-falls-24-as-300-billion-in-share-unlocks-hit-the-market/), with a larger unlock waiting in June 2027 [6]. The precedent is weaker this time. ## The bet is real, but the two sides price it differently The demand is real, and the sub-one-year payback SpaceX's CFO claims on AI infrastructure deserves scrutiny rather than dismissal [2]. But a dollar of rent that can leave on 90 days' notice is not the same dollar as a dollar of lease payments, and on December 8 the equity finally has to price the difference the bond market priced weeks ago [2]. ## Takeaway SpaceX's AI revenue is real but largely cancelable: five-year leases and a $40 billion Apollo chip deal on one side, 90-day-notice Anthropic rent on the other, and the December 8 unlock forces the equity to price the gap the bond market already has. ## Sources 1. [BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, "SpaceX Stock Fell Below Its IPO Price, But Binance's CZ Is Bullish", 31 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-fell-below-ipo-213000518.html) 2. [TechCrunch, "SpaceX locks in $40B GPU financing deal with Apollo", 26 October 2026](https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/26/spacex-locks-in-40b-gpu-financing-deal-with-apollo/) 3. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "Musk called Anthropic 'evil'; SpaceX's deal with it nearly doubled", 6 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/musk-called-anthropic-evil-spacexs-160300908.html) 4. [Financial Times via Yahoo Finance, "SpaceX looks to raise $40bn to buy Nvidia chips in financing led by Apollo", 6 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/spacex-looks-raise-40bn-buy-222855483.html) 5. [Yahoo Finance, "Musk Fires Back: SpaceX's Government Revenue Will Be 'Less Than 5%' in Q4", 6 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/musk-fires-back-spacex-government-171518159.html) 6. [Blockonomi, "SpaceX Stock Falls 24% as $300 Billion in Share Unlocks Hit the Market", 1 November 2026](https://blockonomi.com/spacex-stock-falls-24-as-300-billion-in-share-unlocks-hit-the-market/) --- Anthropic can walk from most of its SpaceX rent on 90 days' notice as the December 8 unlock starts below $135 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-can-walk-from-most-of-its-spacex-rent-on-90-days-notice-as-the-december-8-unlock-starts-below-135