--- title: "Anthropic told investors it turned its first profit as OpenAI races to raise $30 billion" description: "The Claude maker told investors it took $16.8 billion in the third quarter and turned its first profit. The method behind that profit is unpublished, OpenAI disputes how the revenue is counted, and the IPO yardstick is being discounted before it trades." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Markets" published: 2026-10-20T16:22:58.732Z modified: 2026-10-20T16:22:58.732Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-told-investors-it-turned-its-first-profit-as-openai-races-to-raise-30-billion language: en keywords: "Anthropic, OpenAI, IPO, Valuations, AI Revenue" --- # Anthropic told investors it turned its first profit as OpenAI races to raise $30 billion > The Claude maker told investors it took $16.8 billion in the third quarter and turned its first profit. The method behind that profit is unpublished, OpenAI disputes how the revenue is counted, and the IPO yardstick is being discounted before it trades. ## A profit arrived, and the price came down the same week [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic) [told prospective investors on October 14 that third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion](https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/anthropic-says-it-is-profitable-what-claude-makers-q3-revenue-of-16-8-billion-does-and-does-not-show-11792027192211.html), up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter, and that the company turned its first profit [1]. The reception was cooler than the print: with sequential growth slowing from 147% to 45%, some existing and prospective investors now [favor an IPO valuation near $1.5 trillion rather than the roughly $2 trillion the company sought](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/anthropic-ipo-some-investors-reportedly-weigh-lower-1-5-trillion-valuation-as-ai-lab-s-revenue-growth-slows/cZx0A7URBrH) [1][2]. [The listing is expected in mid-November](https://winbuzzer.com/2026/10/20/openai-speeds-fundraising-before-anthropic-planned-stock-debut-xcxwbn/) [2]. ## What the quarter actually carries The quarterly path runs $4.7 billion, $11.6 billion, $16.8 billion, and one attendee said Anthropic expects a $110 billion annual run rate by year end [1][3]. The third quarter alone annualizes to about $67 billion. Against that earned revenue sits a stack of paper: at least $518 billion of pledged compute and infrastructure commitments over roughly a decade [3], [a second $45 billion contract in negotiation](https://daily.semidoped.com/p/daily-update-october-20th-2026) with data-center firm [Nscale](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nscale) after [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) exited its UK site on grid-power delays, and Nscale investors countering its $30 billion IPO ask at $16-19 billion [4]. Kroll Bond Rating Agency rates portions of Anthropic's chip debt one notch below investment grade [2]. A profitable tenant is worth more than a fast-growing one on a 15-year lease. The question is what the profit is made of. *Chart: **Revenue triples in two quarters as the growth rate halves** Column chart of Anthropic's reported quarterly revenue for Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026, rising from 4.7 to 11.6 to 16.8 billion dollars while the quarter-over-quarter growth rate slows from 147 percent to 45 percent.* *Anthropic quarterly revenue in billions of US dollars, as reported by attendees of the October 14, 2026, investor day and by Anthropic's financial disclosure to investors; figures not confirmed by Anthropic. Sources: Stocktwits (2026-10-16), Mint (2026-10-15). [1][3]* ## The small print on the profit Anthropic has not disclosed how the adjusted profit is calculated, and it is unclear whether the $16.8 billion counts gross sales through cloud partners or the net amount Anthropic keeps [3]. [OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai) has accused Anthropic of inflating its figures by counting the full value of contracts sold through outside cloud providers; Anthropic's answer is that it follows established accounting practices [2]. Adjusted measures exclude whatever the company decides to exclude, and the company chooses which costs to leave out [3]. ## The bull case has numbers too Investor Gavin Baker counts positive free cash flow, accelerating October growth and unit economics much better than expected, with 75% of compute spending going toward training [1]. Anthropic raised $65 billion in May at a $965 billion post-money valuation, above the $852 billion OpenAI fetched in March, and OpenAI is [pushing to close a $30 billion round above $1.4 trillion before the yardstick starts trading](https://cryptobriefing.com/openai-fundraising-ahead-anthropic-ipo/) [5][2]. OpenAI pitched investors an annualized revenue of $50 billion now, $70 billion by end-2026 [2]. *Chart: **Private marks have run from $852 billion to a $2 trillion ask investors now discount** Column chart of private valuations in billions of dollars: OpenAI at 852 in March 2026, Anthropic at 965 post-money in May 2026, OpenAI targeting 1400 in its current round, Anthropic seeking about 2000 at IPO, and investors weighing about 1500.* *Post-money and target valuations in billions of US dollars. OpenAI's March 2026 round fetched $852 billion; Anthropic's May 2026 raise priced at $965 billion post-money. The last three columns are targets and reported investor views, not traded prices: OpenAI aims above $1.4 trillion in its current round, Anthropic sought roughly $2 trillion at IPO, and investors now weigh near $1.5 trillion. Sources: Stocktwits (2026-10-16), Mint (2026-10-15), Crypto Briefing (2026-10-19), WinBuzzer (2026-10-20). [1][3][5][2]* ## The compute it gives away The same record contains a live test of the profit question. A five-person investment research team [spent three months on Anthropic's internal model](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrini-therapeutics): 300-plus sub-agents on 300-plus concurrent GPUs overnight, just over 10,000 H100 GPU-hours, about $50,000 of compute, and Anthropic agreed to cover that bill [6]. The output: 211 designs synthesized, 35 design-toxin pairs hit, 17 binders passing across four of five scorpion toxins, none binding all five [6]. Anthropic published the wider research: [1,320 designs across 15 protein targets produced 354 confirmed binders](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/325081/20260820/claude-runs-autonomous-protein-design-campaign-wet-lab-confirms-twice-industry-hit-rate.htm), a hit rate roughly double the industry's 10-15% baseline, on access Anthropic restricts as dual-use [7]. How much of profitable survives an honest meter for the compute it gives away is what the prospectus will have to say. *Chart: **The free compute bought 17 passing binders from 211 designs** Column chart ranking the Citrini campaign funnel: 211 protein designs synthesized, 35 design-toxin pairs that hit, and 17 designs that passed the binding criteria.* *Counts from Citrini Research's three-month autonomous design campaign on Anthropic's internal model, published October 20, 2026. The 35 is design-toxin pairs that hit in testing; the 17 passed the stated criteria across four of five scorpion toxins. Compute, about $50,000, was covered by Anthropic. Source: Citrini Research (2026-10-20). [6]* ## The S-1 will have to answer The draft registration filed confidentially on June 1 must show the profit's method, the revenue basis and the cost of the free compute [2][5]. Nscale's IPO pricing and OpenAI's $30 billion close are two more readings of the same number. The market now owns a profitable frontier lab, and every private mark set before this week has to answer to it. Deep dive into the sources below for the full record. ## Takeaway Anthropic's first profit rests on an unpublished adjusted method and compute it gives away, and with growth slowed to 45% investors are marking the IPO nearer $1.5 trillion than the $2 trillion sought. ## Sources 1. [Stocktwits, Anthropic IPO: Some Investors Reportedly Weigh Lower $1.5 Trillion Valuation As AI Lab's Revenue Growth Slows, 16 October 2026](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/anthropic-ipo-some-investors-reportedly-weigh-lower-1-5-trillion-valuation-as-ai-lab-s-revenue-growth-slows/cZx0A7URBrH) 2. [WinBuzzer, OpenAI Speeds Up Fundraising Before Rival Anthropic's Upcoming IPO, 20 October 2026](https://winbuzzer.com/2026/10/20/openai-speeds-fundraising-before-anthropic-planned-stock-debut-xcxwbn/) 3. [Mint, Anthropic says it is profitable: What Claude-maker's Q3 revenue of $16.8 Billion does and does not show, 15 October 2026](https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/anthropic-says-it-is-profitable-what-claude-makers-q3-revenue-of-16-8-billion-does-and-does-not-show-11792027192211.html) 4. [Semi Doped, Daily Update - October 20th, 2026, 20 October 2026](https://daily.semidoped.com/p/daily-update-october-20th-2026) 5. [Crypto Briefing, OpenAI accelerates fundraising ahead of Anthropic IPO, 19 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/openai-fundraising-ahead-anthropic-ipo/) 6. [Citrini Research, We Wanted to Use Claude to Create a New Drug. Here's What Happened., 20 October 2026](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrini-therapeutics) 7. [TechTimes, Claude Runs Autonomous Protein Design Campaign: Wet Lab Confirms Twice Industry Hit Rate, 20 August 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/325081/20260820/claude-runs-autonomous-protein-design-campaign-wet-lab-confirms-twice-industry-hit-rate.htm) --- Anthropic told investors it turned its first profit as OpenAI races to raise $30 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-told-investors-it-turned-its-first-profit-as-openai-races-to-raise-30-billion