---
title: "Apollo Global Management's economist grades AI zero outside tech; Apollo is named in Nvidia's $500 billion"
description: "Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside tech. His firm is named among six financiers arranging more than $500 billion for Nvidia's buildout, against $466 billion of AI debt issued this year."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-10-25T18:14:19.772Z
modified: 2026-10-25T18:14:19.772Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/apollo-global-management-s-economist-grades-ai-zero-outside-tech-apollo-is-named-in-nvidia-s-500-billion
language: en
keywords: "Artificial Intelligence, Apollo Global Management, Nvidia, CoreWeave, Corporate Debt"
---

# Apollo Global Management's economist grades AI zero outside tech; Apollo is named in Nvidia's $500 billion

> Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside tech. His firm is named among six financiers arranging more than $500 billion for Nvidia's buildout, against $466 billion of AI debt issued this year.

## Zero payoff, in three flat lines

Torsten Slok, chief economist at the investment firm [Apollo Global Management](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apollo-global-management), graded the AI boom in [a October 24 note](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/ai-provides-zero-payoff-to-s-p-493-outside-tech-apollo-economist-says): the technology "has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech." [1][2] Revenue per employee at the Magnificent Seven, the largest US tech stocks, climbed from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 have sat near $550,000 for seven years. [2]

Margins outside tech sit near 10%, against almost 30%, with no lift in productivity growth. [3] Even the spending is concentrated: 99.5% of model-inference spending comes from the top 10% of firms. [3] "The AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7," Slok wrote. [3]

*Chart: **Revenue per worker: the Mag 7 pulled away, the S&P 493 stood still** Range chart showing Magnificent Seven revenue per employee rising from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000 in 2026, while S&P 493 revenue per employee stayed near $550,000.*

*Revenue per employee in thousands of dollars, 2022 versus 2026, from charts in Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok's October 24 note. [2]*

## The financier shares the letterhead

The awkward part is Apollo's other line of work. The research firm IO Fund names Apollo, alongside [BlackRock](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/blackrock), [Blackstone](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/blackstone), Brookfield, [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) and KKR, in [preliminary agreements](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-debt-exploded-4x-nearly-112437184.html) to channel more than $500 billion of third-party capital into [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)'s chip ecosystem. [4] One desk at the firm measures AI demand; its deal desks finance the supply.

That supply is running at record speed: [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) counts $466 billion of AI-related debt issued through September, up from $101 billion a year earlier, and Goldman Sachs counts $489 billion by late July. [4] Whether the two sides of the house compare notes is not in the public record.

*Chart: **AI-related debt issuance has roughly quadrupled in a year** Column chart of AI-related debt issued: $101 billion a year earlier and $466 billion through September, per Morgan Stanley, with Goldman Sachs counting $489 billion by late July.*

*Cumulative AI-related debt issued, billions of dollars. Morgan Stanley counts $466 billion through September, up from $101 billion a year earlier; Goldman Sachs counted $489 billion by late July. [4]*

## Who pays if the zero holds

The research firm [Gartner](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/gartner) totals the same gap from above: data-center owners need $8.5 trillion of revenue through 2030 to justify the buildout, against the $3.6 trillion it expects to flow back, [a $4.9 trillion gap](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ai-boom-nearly-5-trillion-153607724.html), with more than $3.5 trillion of spending facing write-down. [5][1]

*Chart: **Gartner sees a $4.9 trillion gap between the buildout and the payback** Column chart showing $8.5 trillion of revenue needed through 2030 against the $3.6 trillion Gartner expects to flow back, with $3.5 trillion of spending facing write-down.*

*Gartner projections, trillions of dollars: the revenue data-center owners need through 2030 to justify the buildout versus the revenue Gartner expects to flow back, and the spending facing write-down. [5][1]*

[CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave), the GPU cloud whose bonds [already price a near 63% chance of default](https://theinference.org/article/nvidia-guarantees-up-to-105-billion-of-openai-s-ohio-campus-coreweave-s-bonds-imply-near-63-default-odds) within five years, marks the bottom of the chain. [6] Its quarterly revenue quadrupled in eight quarters, while the operating income it filed across those quarters sums to about negative $10 million. [7] Third-quarter guidance puts interest expense at $860 million to $940 million against $200 million to $260 million of adjusted operating income. [8]

[Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) raised the floor of its 2026 capex plan to $135 billion to $145 billion, [posted negative $2.12 billion of free cash flow](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/meta-stock-q3-earnings-free-cash-flow.html), and its five-year default swaps hit a record; the stock fell nearly 7%. [9]

*Chart: **CoreWeave quadrupled revenue in eight quarters for about zero cumulative operating income** Line chart showing CoreWeave quarterly revenue rising from $0.58 billion to $2.58 billion over eight quarters while operating income stays near or below zero.*

*Quarterly revenue and GAAP operating income, billions of dollars, Q3 2024 through Q2 2026, from CoreWeave's SEC filings. [7][8]*

## Demand is real, and so is the due date

The doubling-down camp has numbers too: a $104 billion backlog at CoreWeave, prices up about 25% in July with near-term capacity sold out, and $127 billion of Nvidia free cash flow in the year through July. [8][4] Slok leaves his own door open: can mainstream corporate America "turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins"? "That may be harder than it sounds," he added. [2]

This week brings Google, [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) and [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon) results plus a Federal Reserve meeting, and CoreWeave reports on November 12. [4][8] If interest lands at the high end of that guide, the zero gets expensive.

## Takeaway

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has produced zero financial payoff for the S&P 493, even as his own firm is named among six financiers arranging more than $500 billion for Nvidia's buildout and AI debt issuance quadruples to $466 billion.

## Sources

1. [Bloomberg, "AI Provides 'Zero Payoff' to S&P 493 Outside Tech, Apollo Economist Says", 25 October 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/ai-provides-zero-payoff-to-s-p-493-outside-tech-apollo-economist-says)
2. [Business Insider, "Apollo: AI has delivered 'zero financial payoff' outside tech industry", October 2026](https://www.businessinsider.com/apollo-ai-zero-financial-payoff-corporate-america-economic-analysis-2026-10)
3. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, "Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns AI Has Delivered 'Zero Financial Payoff' Outside Tech: 'AI Story Will Be Decided In The S&P 493, Not The Mag 7'", 25 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apollo-torsten-slok-warns-ai-125709125.html)
4. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, "AI Debt Has Exploded 4X To Nearly $500 Billion: What It Means For NVDA, ORCL And CRWV, According To IO Fund", 25 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-debt-exploded-4x-nearly-112437184.html)
5. [Yahoo Finance via Fortune, "The AI boom is nearly $5 trillion short of paying for itself, Gartner says", 21 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ai-boom-nearly-5-trillion-153607724.html)
6. [The Inference, "Nvidia guarantees up to $105 billion of OpenAI's Ohio campus; CoreWeave's bonds imply near 63% default odds", 25 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/nvidia-guarantees-up-to-105-billion-of-openai-s-ohio-campus-coreweave-s-bonds-imply-near-63-default-odds)
7. [CoreWeave, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 25 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628)
8. [TIKR via Yahoo Finance, "CoreWeave Slides 11% Toward a 52-Week Low as a $640 Million Interest Bill Rattles Investors", 25 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coreweave-slides-11-toward-52-131559321.html)
9. [CNBC, "Meta stock sinks nearly 7% as AI spend pushes free cash flow negative", 22 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/meta-stock-q3-earnings-free-cash-flow.html)


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Apollo Global Management's economist grades AI zero outside tech; Apollo is named in Nvidia's $500 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/apollo-global-management-s-economist-grades-ai-zero-outside-tech-apollo-is-named-in-nvidia-s-500-billion