---
title: "苹果新CEO不排除采用中国DRAM 长鑫存储单季营收指引约为上年同期的七倍"
description: "约翰·特纳斯9月1日起出任苹果CEO。在存储缺货涨价迫使苹果削减iPhone 18 Pro订单之际,他不排除采用中国存储芯片。正被苹果评估的这家中国供应商刚刚预告单季业绩约为上年同期的七倍;10月16日,其股价上涨3.28%,美光则下跌5.63%。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Markets"
published: 2026-10-17T15:11:38.191Z
modified: 2026-10-17T15:11:38.191Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/apple-s-new-ceo-keeps-chinese-dram-on-the-table-as-cxmt-posts-a-sevenfold-quarter/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Apple, CXMT, Micron, Memory Chips, Semiconductors"
---

# 苹果新CEO不排除采用中国DRAM 长鑫存储单季营收指引约为上年同期的七倍

> 约翰·特纳斯9月1日起出任苹果CEO。在存储缺货涨价迫使苹果削减iPhone 18 Pro订单之际,他不排除采用中国存储芯片。正被苹果评估的这家中国供应商刚刚预告单季业绩约为上年同期的七倍;10月16日,其股价上涨3.28%,美光则下跌5.63%。

## 用新掌门自己的话说:一场危机

[约翰·特纳斯](https://theinference.org/markets/people/john-ternus)9月1日起出任[苹果](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple)公司CEO。他在上任后的首次封面专访中,把中国存储继续保留在苹果的选项清单上[1][2]。他在[10月15日刊发的《时代》周刊专访](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/apple-ceo-weighs-chinese-memory-chips-amid-shortage/ar-AA2elmTj)中表示,存储供应紧张“显然是一场严重危机”,苹果的“基本立场是,必须评估所有选项”;他没有点名任何供应商[1]。英国《金融时报》7月报道,苹果正在测试[长鑫存储](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cxmt)(CXMT)的DRAM(动态随机存取存储器),即手机和服务器中的主力存储芯片,首先应用于在中国市场销售的设备。《华尔街日报》8月报道,相关测试覆盖iPhone和MacBook,但苹果尚未就最终采用作出决定[1]。市场已经提前投票:10月16日,随着初步业绩数据流传,长鑫存储在上海上市的股票上涨3.28%,[美光](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron)下跌5.63%,美光全周累计跌幅超过10%[6][9]。

## 存储账单推开了大门

特纳斯的前任[蒂姆·库克](https://theinference.org/markets/people/tim-cook)在[苹果7月30日的财报电话会议](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-ceo-already-being-pressured-184849814.html)上把存储定价称作“百年一遇的洪水”;首席财务官[凯万·帕雷克](https://theinference.org/markets/people/kevan-parekh)表示,苹果毛利率收缩中,存储一项的贡献超过100%[3]。今年一季度,三星和[SK海力士](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix)将供应iPhone的低功耗DRAM价格分别上调80%和100%[1]。随后有报道称,[苹果将10月份iPhone 18 Pro与Pro Max订单较原计划削减约七分之一至五分之一](https://kalkine.com/news/technology/skyworks-solutions-nasdaqswks-why-it-sank-on-the-sp-500-as-a-report-flagged-apple-iphone-order-cuts);此前,存储成本已将两款机型的售价推高至1199美元和1299美元[4]。今年早些时候,苹果曾因看不到价格优势而退出与长鑫存储的谈判;后者的单位比特成本目前仍比现有厂商高出约30%[5]。华盛顿却在朝相反方向施压:包括查克·舒默在内的七名美国参议员已要求苹果避开长鑫存储,这家公司被列于美国国防部的中国涉军企业清单[1]。

## 长鑫存储由亏转盈:净利润指引达1310亿元

苹果正在评估的这家供应商刚刚给出业绩指引:前三季度营收约为上年同期的八倍。[该公司在上海披露的公告](https://www.briefs.co/news/cxmt-says-profit-and-sales-soared-as-memory-demand-lifted-pr/)显示,1月至9月营收为2650亿元至2700亿元,同比增长726%至742%;净利润为1310亿元至1325亿元(约合196亿美元至198亿美元),上年同期为净亏损53亿元;董事长朱一鸣提议以10亿元至20亿元回购股份[6][7]。仅第三季度,指引营收即达1147亿元至1197亿元,环比增长15%至20%,同比增长589%至619%,单季业绩约为上年同期的七倍[7][8]。市场研究机构Counterpoint Research的统计显示,第二季度长鑫存储占全球DRAM营收的10%,高于上年同期的4%,排在占38%的三星、占25%的SK海力士和占24%的美光之后[7][8]。

*Chart: **九个月内,53亿元亏损变为1310亿元盈利** 柱状图:长鑫存储前三季度营收与净利润,2025年实际值对比2026年指引区间端点,单位为十亿元人民币*

*1月至9月数据,单位为十亿元人民币。2026年的柱形为长鑫存储在上海披露的指引区间下限和上限,并非中间值。资料来源:Briefs Finance、韩国《朝鲜日报》。 [6][7]*

*Chart: **长鑫存储全球DRAM营收份额升至10%,上年同期为4%** 柱形图:2026年第二季度全球DRAM营收份额,三星38%、SK海力士25%、美光24%、长鑫存储10%*

*2026年第二季度全球DRAM营收份额,Counterpoint Research估算数据。资料来源:韩国《朝鲜日报》、SammyFans。 [7][8]*

## 苹果若点头,谁是赢家?

如果苹果将长鑫存储认证为中国市场设备的供应商,长鑫存储便获得一个iPhone量级的品牌买家,而三星、SK海力士和美光将失去库克抱怨过的那种只有三家供应商的市场[3]。美光的营收有缓冲:[约1500亿美元的照付不议(take-or-pay)合同](https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in)——客户无论提货与否都必须付款——到2030年可覆盖美光超过35%的营收[5]。真正被打破的,是已经计入股价的定价权。由此构成一笔两边都能做的交易:要么押注破局者长鑫存储——市场已经给这条消息投了票,长鑫存储上涨3.28%,美光下跌5.63%;要么保持耐心,等苹果给出答案。这套格局唯一惩罚的仓位,是在大门仍然敞开时,把现有厂商的定价权一路押到财报出炉。

## 分析师称抛售"过了头";测试说了算

罗森布拉特证券(Rosenblatt Securities)分析师Kevin Cassidy称这轮抛售"过了头",并[维持美光"买入"评级](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-stock-tumbles-despite-analyst-194225087.html)[9]。Fundstrat分析师Kent Fung则认为,长鑫存储的4F²设计——一种密度更高的存储单元布局——冲击的是传统服务器DRAM,而非AI数据中心采购的高带宽存储器(HBM)[9]。长鑫存储也还没有证明,自己能以商业化良率生产这种新单元[5]。公司总裁Cao Kanyu已承诺[在2026年底前推出服务器级DDR5模组](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-says-server-dram-ships-in-2026-two-years-ahead-of-samsung-landing-on-micron-s-87-margin)[9]。是否采用,目前还没有任何决定[1]。真正的风向标,是长鑫存储的DRAM会不会出现在中国市场的iPhone或Mac上:那将是苹果拆分存储采购的信号。

## Takeaway

苹果新任CEO在存储短缺涨价迫使iPhone削减订单之际,继续评估中国存储供应商长鑫存储;长鑫存储单季业绩指引约为上年同期的七倍,10月16日股价上涨3.28%而美光下跌5.63%,显示市场已在为苹果存储订单“分单”提前定价——但苹果尚未作出采用决定,长鑫存储的单位比特成本也仍比现有厂商高出约30%。

## Sources

1. [The Chosun Ilbo via MSN, "Apple CEO weighs Chinese memory chips amid shortage," 16 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/apple-ceo-weighs-chinese-memory-chips-amid-shortage/ar-AA2elmTj)
2. [Digg, "Apple CEO John Ternus argues iPhones will still matter in an AI future," 16 October 2026](https://digg.com/world-business/7364oqsi)
3. [24/7 Wall St. via Yahoo Finance, "Apple's New CEO Is Already Being Pressured to Drop the Chinese Chip Deal Tim Cook Fought to Keep," 22 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-ceo-already-being-pressured-184849814.html)
4. [Kalkine, "Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS): Why It Sank on the S&P 500 as a Report Flagged Apple iPhone Order Cuts," 17 October 2026](https://kalkine.com/news/technology/skyworks-solutions-nasdaqswks-why-it-sank-on-the-sp-500-as-a-report-flagged-apple-iphone-order-cuts)
5. [The Inference, "Musk calls Micron's prices reasonable as Micron fell 14% and $150 billion sits locked in," 14 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in)
6. [Briefs Finance, "CXMT Says Profit and Sales Soared as Memory Demand Lifted Prices," 16 October 2026](https://www.briefs.co/news/cxmt-says-profit-and-sales-soared-as-memory-demand-lifted-pr/)
7. [The Chosun Ilbo via MSN, "ChangXin Memory Technologies' Q3 revenue surges sevenfold," 16 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/general/changxin-memory-technologies-q3-revenue-surges-sevenfold/ar-AA2eq6yC)
8. [SammyFans, "CXMT claims 7x DRAM revenue on AI boom to rival Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron," 17 October 2026](https://www.sammyfans.com/2026/10/17/cxmt-claims-7x-dram-revenue-on-ai-boom/)
9. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "Micron stock tumbles despite analyst calls semiconductor selloff overblown," 16 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-stock-tumbles-despite-analyst-194225087.html)


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苹果新CEO不排除采用中国DRAM 长鑫存储单季营收指引约为上年同期的七倍 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/apple-s-new-ceo-keeps-chinese-dram-on-the-table-as-cxmt-posts-a-sevenfold-quarter/zh-CN