---
title: "应用材料拒绝给出支撑芯片热潮的关键数字"
description: "加里·迪克森(Gary Dickerson)说需求仍在持续扩张,但在应用材料10月13日的投资者日上,他没有公布业内奉为圭臬的设备支出预测,公司股价当日下跌7.27%。台积电单季营收创下467亿美元的纪录,表明需求已被订单锁定;厂房空间、存储芯片供应和电力融资,则决定这些需求何时转化为出货。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Silicon"
published: 2026-10-13T21:23:03.005Z
modified: 2026-10-13T21:23:03.005Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/applied-materials-refused-to-name-the-number-that-underwrites-the-chip-boom/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Semiconductors, Applied Materials, TSMC, ASML, Chip Equipment, Stocks"
---

# 应用材料拒绝给出支撑芯片热潮的关键数字

> 加里·迪克森(Gary Dickerson)说需求仍在持续扩张,但在应用材料10月13日的投资者日上,他没有公布业内奉为圭臬的设备支出预测,公司股价当日下跌7.27%。台积电单季营收创下467亿美元的纪录,表明需求已被订单锁定;厂房空间、存储芯片供应和电力融资,则决定这些需求何时转化为出货。

## 他拒绝给出的那个数字

10月13日,[应用材料](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials)召开投资者日。首席执行官加里·迪克森表示,算力需求仍在持续扩张,但随后拒绝给出整个行业的晶圆厂设备(WFE)支出预测——设备厂商正是以这一数字为标尺,为芯片景气周期背书[1][2]。[公司股价当日下跌7.27%,报461.50美元](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/applied-materials-shares-slide-chip-170346016.html),创7月28日以来最大单日跌幅[1]。同一交易日,[KLA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/kla)下跌3.69%,[泛林集团](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lam-research)下跌3.31%,[阿斯麦](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asml)下跌2.50%[1]。

*Chart: **10月13日设备厂商股价集体下跌,应用材料以7.27%领跌** 2026年10月13日各股单日涨跌幅:应用材料-7.27%,KLA-3.69%,泛林集团-3.31%,阿斯麦-2.50%。*

*2026年10月13日单日股价涨跌幅(%),为美东时间下午1:03报价;应用材料盘中最低触及452.81美元,日内跌幅达9%。 [1]*

## 这把标尺为何重要

WFE指芯片制造商花在生产芯片的机器上的开支;WFE预测则是设备供应商确定建厂规模与招聘计划的依据[1]。[泛林集团对2026自然年WFE支出的判断](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/applied-materials-ceo-says-the-ai-boom-is-nowhere-near-over-his-order-book-is-the-proof/)是1500亿美元区间的低端[3]。[SEMI预计](https://www.techpowerup.com/353674/global-300mm-fab-equipment-spending-to-reach-usd-227-billion-in-2029-as-buildout-accelerates),今年300毫米晶圆前道设备支出为1490亿美元,到2029年将增至2270亿美元[4]。应用材料给出了方向,却没有给出数字:公司预计,到2030年,WFE支出的增速将快于过去十年[5]。

## 买方仍在下单

迪克森出言谨慎之时,行业正接连刷新纪录。全球最大芯片代工厂[台积电](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc)[10月8日公布第三季度营收467.1亿美元,创历史新高](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/tsmcs-third-quarter-revenue-surges-to-record-beating-market-forecast/ar-AA2dNfCj),同比增长50%,超出公司自身业绩指引[6]。阿斯麦是全球唯一一家生产尖端芯片光刻机的公司,计划自明年年初起将部分零部件价格上调10%[7],订单能见度已延伸至2028年[8]。应用材料的客户,则正向公司提供未来八个季度的采购预测[3]。

*Chart: **台积电营收连续四个季度创历史新高,达到467亿美元** 台积电2024年第四季度至2026年第三季度的季度营收(美元),从267亿美元升至创纪录的467亿美元。*

*按公司公布数据、以美元计的季度营收,统计截至2024年12月至2026年9月的各季度;2026年第三季度数字来自台积电已公布的新台币1.49万亿元营收,先于10月15日发布的正式财报。 [9][6]*

## 三大瓶颈决定时间表

迪克森点出了决定需求何时转化为订单的三大因素:厂房空间、供应链约束,以及能源基础设施的融资[1]。而这三项,如今都有具体的数字摆在眼前。

台积电副营运长侯永清9月表示,公司[同时在建约20座晶圆厂](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/tsmc-equipment-demand-doubled-but-fab-construction-workers-are-running-out/ar-AA2bz7Ot),但台湾的施工队伍已不足以支撑这样的建设速度[10]。[美光科技](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron)首席执行官[桑杰·梅赫罗特拉表示,“供需环境只会越来越紧张”](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2026/10/memory-supplies-are-only-getting-tighter-micron-ceo-says/),并称这家存储芯片制造商2027年产量中已有75%被客户预订[11]。[谷歌母公司Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet)正出资18亿美元,为其位于怀俄明州的自有数据中心建设一座天然气电厂和微电网[12]。

## 另一种解读:景气已经见顶

还有一种更严峻的解读。在投资者日活动开始之前，应用材料股价就已[眼看要录得六连跌](https://www.barrons.com/articles/applied-materials-stock-sell-signal-investor-day-f9fa99d0)[13]。有报道称[OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai) 9月的年化收入约为500亿美元，而非其此前向投资者宣讲的700亿美元；消息传出后的几个交易日里，[费城半导体指数累计下跌7%](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/chips-still-tsmc-asml-040100321.html)[7]。照这种解读，把这项预测扣住不发，是在掩饰订单能见度的收窄；况且，预测本来就不是采购订单[3]。

## 周三、周四见分晓

[阿斯麦将于10月14日发布第三季度业绩](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/12/why-october-14-could-change-everything-for-asml-stock/)，台积电紧随其后，于10月15日放榜[8][6]。重点关注阿斯麦的新增订单和2027年产能规划，再看台积电的资本支出预算——该预算已上调至600亿至640亿美元[10]。迪克森手里的生意，一头连着看得见的订单簿，一头连着看不见的工程时间表；本周出炉的财报将揭晓，决定价格的是哪一头。

## Takeaway

应用材料在10月13日的投资者日上未公布晶圆厂设备支出预测,股价下跌7.27%;但台积电创纪录的营收和国际半导体产业协会(SEMI)2270亿美元的预测都表明,需求已被订单锁定。真正的考验,是阿斯麦10月14日的财报和台积电10月15日公布的资本支出预算。

## Sources

1. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Applied Materials shares slide as chip equipment outlook remains uncertain, 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/applied-materials-shares-slide-chip-170346016.html)
2. [Seeking Alpha, Applied Materials drops during Investor Day as it eyes growing optical inspection market, 13 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4652547-applied-materials-drops-during-investor-day-as-it-eyes-growing-optical-inspection-market)
3. [24/7 Wall St, Applied Materials CEO Says the AI Boom Is Nowhere Near Over. His Order Book Is the Proof, 10 September 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/applied-materials-ceo-says-the-ai-boom-is-nowhere-near-over-his-order-book-is-the-proof/)
4. [SEMI via TechPowerUp, Global 300mm Fab Equipment Spending to Reach $227 Billion in 2029 as Buildout Accelerates, 13 October 2026](https://www.techpowerup.com/353674/global-300mm-fab-equipment-spending-to-reach-usd-227-billion-in-2029-as-buildout-accelerates)
5. [GlobeNewswire via MarketScreener, Applied Materials Set to Outperform as AI Drives Sustained Demand for Wafer Fab Equipment, 13 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/applied-materials-set-to-outperform-as-ai-drives-sustained-demand-for-wafer-fab-equipment-ce785dddd08cfe21)
6. [Reuters, TSMC's third-quarter revenue surges to record, beating market forecast, 8 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/tsmcs-third-quarter-revenue-surges-to-record-beating-market-forecast/ar-AA2dNfCj)
7. [The Daily Upside via Yahoo Finance, Chips Still Up for TSMC and ASML, 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/chips-still-tsmc-asml-040100321.html)
8. [24/7 Wall St, Why October 14 Could Change Everything for ASML Stock, 12 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/12/why-october-14-could-change-everything-for-asml-stock/)
9. [TSMC, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179)
10. [Tech Times, TSMC Equipment Demand Doubled, But Fab Construction Workers Are Running Out, 4 September 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/tsmc-equipment-demand-doubled-but-fab-construction-workers-are-running-out/ar-AA2bz7Ot)
11. [Ars Technica, Memory executives expect RAM shortage to continue through 2028, 1 October 2026](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2026/10/memory-supplies-are-only-getting-tighter-micron-ceo-says/)
12. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Alphabet's $1.8 Billion Black Hills Deal Powers AI Data Center Push, 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/alphabets-1-8-billion-black-165000936.html)
13. [Barron's, Applied Materials Stock Could Be Flashing a Sell Signal on This Investor Day Omission, 13 October 2026](https://www.barrons.com/articles/applied-materials-stock-sell-signal-investor-day-f9fa99d0)


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应用材料拒绝给出支撑芯片热潮的关键数字 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/applied-materials-refused-to-name-the-number-that-underwrites-the-chip-boom/zh-CN