--- title: "Arrow Electronics doubled this year, then guided next quarter 8 to 11% below what it just delivered" description: "Arrow Electronics beat Q2 profit estimates by a dollar on $9.99 billion of revenue, then guided next-quarter earnings below the number it just delivered. The October 29 report will show whether a doubled stock was pricing a business or a component cycle." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-11T13:25:50.190Z modified: 2026-10-11T13:25:50.190Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/arrow-electronics-doubled-this-year-then-guided-next-quarter-8-to-11-below-what-it-just-delivered language: en keywords: "Semiconductors, Earnings, Supply Chain, Markets" --- # Arrow Electronics doubled this year, then guided next quarter 8 to 11% below what it just delivered > Arrow Electronics beat Q2 profit estimates by a dollar on $9.99 billion of revenue, then guided next-quarter earnings below the number it just delivered. The October 29 report will show whether a doubled stock was pricing a business or a component cycle. [Arrow Electronics](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/arrow-electronics) holds the middle seat of the chip trade: suppliers set the prices, factories pay them, and the distributor in between books the difference [2]. Investors have paid up for that seat. The stock [set an all-time high of $238.02 on October 2](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/arrow-electronics-stock-hits-alltime-high-at-23802-usd-93CH-4670734) [1] and closed at $242.01 on October 6, above the $233.25 average target of its six covering analysts, on a $12.3 billion market value [2]. It has slipped since: down 3.5 percent to $232.00 on October 7, near $228 by October 9, still up 110.6 percent for the year [3][4]. ## The quarter that beat by a dollar Second-quarter revenue reached $9.99 billion, up 31.8 percent year over year against a $9.67 billion estimate, and adjusted EPS of $5.45 cleared the $4.45 consensus by a dollar [2][5]. The shape of the win matters more than the size. Gross margin ran 11.3 percent and net margin 2.7 percent in the quarter, [per its SEC filings](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000007536) [6]. At 2.7 cents of net income per sales dollar, Arrow's revenue is a price gauge with a commission attached. *Chart: **From -16% quarters to +32%, and the next guide is flat** Line chart of Arrow Electronics quarterly revenue from Q4 2023 through Q2 2026, falling from $7.8B to $6.8B during the 2024 downturn then rising to $9.99B, with the Q3 2026 company guidance midpoint dashed at $9.9B.* *Quarterly revenue in US$ billions from Arrow's SEC filings; the dashed final point is the midpoint of the company's own Q3 2026 revenue guidance issued August 6, 2026. Sources: SEC filings [6]; MarketBeat [5]. [5][6]* ## Price hikes swell the book first The gauge is being pushed. Power-management IC, driver IC and microcontroller suppliers are [weighing a second round of hikes of 5 percent to double digits into early 2027](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/05/news-ic-designers-reportedly-eye-5-to-double-digit-price-hikes-in-late-2026-early-2027-as-foundry-costs-rise/), on foundry costs up 3 to 10 percent at mature nodes from January, and customers are pulling orders in ahead of them; the suppliers themselves say the pickup is not broad demand [7]. A supply-chain report had [AMD](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amd) telling channel partners of a 10 percent fourth-quarter increase, which AMD has not confirmed [8]. A reported [onsemi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/onsemi) increase on October 10 with 30-week lead times could not be verified. AI infrastructure is the demand story attached to Arrow's name [9]; repricing is the part a distributor books first. ## Arrow's own forecast doubts the run For the third quarter the company [guided to $4.83 to $5.03 of adjusted EPS](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ARW/earnings/), 8 to 11 percent below what it just delivered, on revenue of $9.6 billion to $10.2 billion, flat at the midpoint [5]. The bears hold receipts: fair value of $163.16 against the $232.00 price, 14.8 times trailing earnings versus a 9.8x five-year median, and insiders net-sellers of $14.0 million over twelve months [3]. The bulls answer with a 9.7x forward multiple and a growth rank of 8 in 10 [3]. ## October 29 reads the gauge Results land after the close on October 29 [5]. The number to watch is sequential revenue: a flat quarter with the hikes already in the book would say the doubling priced a cycle, not a business. When lead times stretch, a distributor books the whole shortage; when they normalize, it ships the money back. ## Takeaway Arrow's Q3 report on October 29 turns on sequential revenue: a flat quarter with price hikes already booked would say the doubled stock priced a component cycle, not durable growth. ## Sources 1. [Investing.com, Arrow Electronics stock hits all-time high at 238.02 USD, 2 October 2026](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/arrow-electronics-stock-hits-alltime-high-at-23802-usd-93CH-4670734) 2. [ad-hoc-news.de, Arrow Electronics stock reports 31.8 percent revenue growth, 7 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/arrow-electronics-stock-reports-31-8-percent-revenue-growth/70247943) 3. [GuruFocus, Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) Stock Down 3.5% but Still Overvalued, GF Score: 79/100, 7 October 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9114320/arrow-electronics-inc-arw-stock-down-35-but-still-overvalued-gf-score-79100) 4. [Arrow Electronics Investor Relations, Q2 2026 results and quote page, accessed 11 October 2026](https://investor.arrow.com/) 5. [MarketBeat, Arrow Electronics (ARW) Earnings Date, Estimates and Reports 2026, accessed 11 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ARW/earnings/) 6. [Arrow Electronics quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 11 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000007536) 7. [TrendForce News, IC Designers Reportedly Eye 5% to Double-Digit Price Hikes in Late 2026 and Early 2027 as Foundry Costs Rise, 5 October 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/05/news-ic-designers-reportedly-eye-5-to-double-digit-price-hikes-in-late-2026-early-2027-as-foundry-costs-rise/) 8. [24/7 Wall St, AMD Rises 5% as Report Flags 10% Chip Price Increase, 21 September 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/amd-rises-5-as-report-flags-10-chip-price-increase-nvidia-and-taiwan-semiconductor-tick-up/) 9. [Kalkine Media, What Is Changing at Arrow Electronics (NYSE:ARW) After Earnings?, 7 October 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/technology/what-is-changing-at-arrow-electronics-nysearw-after-earnings) --- Arrow Electronics doubled this year, then guided next quarter 8 to 11% below what it just delivered — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/arrow-electronics-doubled-this-year-then-guided-next-quarter-8-to-11-below-what-it-just-delivered