--- title: "ASML missed by $50 million, raised its floor, and chip tools sold off anyway" description: "ASML says customers are already queuing for 2030 order slots and its planned supply runs short of demand through 2028. TSMC's capex line on October 15 is the first number that says whether this week's tool selloff had any basis." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-14T22:59:41.097Z modified: 2026-10-14T22:59:41.097Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/asml-missed-by-50-million-raised-its-floor-and-chip-tools-sold-off-anyway language: en keywords: "ASML, TSMC, Applied Materials, Semiconductors, Earnings, Markets" --- # ASML missed by $50 million, raised its floor, and chip tools sold off anyway > ASML says customers are already queuing for 2030 order slots and its planned supply runs short of demand through 2028. TSMC's capex line on October 15 is the first number that says whether this week's tool selloff had any basis. ## The numbers did not argue for the selling [ASML](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asml)'s third quarter was a beat dressed as a miss. [Net sales of EUR 11.66 billion](https://www.investor.asml.com/news), up 55% from a year earlier, came to $13.07 billion against a $13.12 billion consensus, a shortfall of four tenths of one percent [2][8]. Net profit of EUR 4.96 billion beat the EUR 4.1 billion expected [3], and earnings of $14.51 a share cleared a $12.05 estimate [2]. The guides went the other way. ASML lifted its 2026 sales floor to EUR 44 to 45 billion, from EUR 43 to 45 billion, and pointed the gross margin at about 56%, against a prior 54 to 56% [2][3]. Fourth-quarter sales of EUR 14.2 to 15.2 billion would top the EUR 14.2 billion consensus at the high end [3]. ## The order book runs past the supply plan Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said [customers want order slots for 2029 and 2030](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/asml-3q-earnings-ai-demand-orders-capacity.html), that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 runs short of demand, and that ASML is studying 2028 capacity beyond the 30% expansion in hand [2][3]. In the quarter, Samsung and [TSMC](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc) [committed to High-NA EUV](https://theinference.org/article/samsung-intel-and-tsmc-promised-asml-s-400m-machine-work-none-promised-a-count), the next generation of the lithography machines used to build the most advanced chips [3]. ![The interior of an ASML High-NA EUV lithography system, lit in purple](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/18ea155cac9d8066.jpg) *Inside an ASML High-NA EUV system, the next-generation machine Samsung and TSMC committed to in the quarter. (Courtesy of ASML)* ## The selling started a day before the print The equipment complex came into October 14 already selling [1]. A day earlier, as [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials) opened its $5 billion EPIC research center in Sunnyvale, its stock fell 7%, the rival tool makers [Lam Research](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lam-research) and [KLA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/kla) dropped 4% each, and [the iShares Semiconductor ETF slipped 1%](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/13/semiconductor-equipment-stocks-slide-as-investors-take-profits-on-a-huge-year-applied-materials-sinks-7-lam-research-and-kla-drop-4/) [1]. *Chart: **Tool stocks slid on October 13, a day before ASML's results, with Applied Materials down 7%** Bars ranking one-day share moves on October 13, 2026: Applied Materials down 7 percent, Lam Research down 4, KLA down 4, iShares Semiconductor ETF down 1.* *One-day share price moves on October 13, 2026, the day Applied Materials opened its EPIC research center in Sunnyvale. Source: 24/7 Wall St. [1]* Wednesday followed the script. ASML's US-listed shares fell about 3% in overnight trading, dragging the memory-chip makers [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) and SanDisk and chipmaker [Intel](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/intel) down 1 to 2.6% [2], even as the Amsterdam line traded about 2% higher once Europe's cash market opened [3]. ASML has now closed lower in six of its last seven sessions [2]. ## Visibility is not a signed contract Applied Materials offered the other kind of number at the ribbon-cutting: none. The 600,000-square-foot EPIC lab puts researchers from the chipmakers Intel, TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung alongside [Applied's](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials) own engineers, with early access to its newest tools [4]. Applied says that co-location can cut the road from concept to commercialization from 10 to 12 years to as few as six [4]. [No spending forecast came with the building](https://theinference.org/article/applied-materials-refused-to-name-the-number-that-underwrites-the-chip-boom). Chief executive Gary Dickerson points to visibility into customer demand as far as 2030, on an August quarter of $9.12 billion, up 25% [4]. Until companies collaborate in the lab, he said, "they don't know what they don't know" [4]. ## China is still 28% of Applied's revenue The exposure beside the ribbon is Chinese. CXMT, a memory maker in China, claimed a density breakthrough that sent Samsung down about 7% and SK Hynix about 10% in Seoul [4], and China still accounts for 28% of Applied's revenue [1]. ## TSMC prints the tiebreaker TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports before the bell on Thursday, October 15 [6], and capex is the line the tool makers answer to. Revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up 50%, is already public and beat the company's own guidance [6][9]. The NT$746.3 billion profit consensus, up 65%, implies a net margin near 50%, with the new 2nm node diluting gross margin by three to four points [5]. *Chart: **TSMC's guided 2026 capex of $60 to $64 billion sits half again above 2025** Bars of TSMC annual capital spending from 2021 through 2025, with a 2026 guidance bar drawn as the stated $60 to $64 billion range, above the 2025 actual of $40.7 billion.* *Annual capital spending, US dollars, TSMC fiscal years (calendar years); the 2026 bar is company guidance of $60 to $64 billion, drawn at its stated floor with the range above. Sources: TSMC SEC filings; Yahoo Finance. [5][7]* The spend is the swing. TSMC laid out $40.7 billion in 2025 [7] and [has guided 2026 to $60 to 64 billion, a range it raised in July from $52 to 56 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tsmc-q3-earnings-preview-65-070552524.html) [5], inside the $265 billion committed in Arizona [9]. Most of that money flows to equipment makers [5]. ## Watch the capex line, not the tape If the range holds, this week's selling reads as profit-taking in stocks still far ahead: Applied up 80% this year and KLA 51% [1], ASML 61% [2]. If it is trimmed, the bears finally have a hard number. TSMC reports in a day, and the capex line is the first figure big enough to settle the argument. *Chart: **The selling hit stocks still far ahead for the year** Bars of 2026 year-to-date share gains as of October 13: Applied Materials up 80 percent, ASML up 61, KLA up 51.* *Year-to-date share price gains as of October 13, 2026. Sources: 24/7 Wall St. (Applied Materials, KLA); StockTwits via Yahoo Finance (ASML). [1][2]* ## Takeaway ASML's quarter, raised floor and 2030 order book argue the chip-tool selloff was profit-taking, not fundamentals; TSMC's capex guidance on October 15 is the first figure big enough to settle it. ## Sources 1. [24/7 Wall St., "Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Slide as Investors Take Profits on a Huge Year: Applied Materials Sinks 7%, Lam Research and KLA Drop 4%", 13 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/13/semiconductor-equipment-stocks-slide-as-investors-take-profits-on-a-huge-year-applied-materials-sinks-7-lam-research-and-kla-drop-4/) 2. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, "ASML Raises Sales Forecast For A Third Time, But Q3 Revenue Miss Sends Stock Lower", 14 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asml-raises-sales-forecast-third-061145434.html) 3. [CNBC, "ASML says it's getting order interest through 2030 as profit smashes expectations", 14 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/asml-3q-earnings-ai-demand-orders-capacity.html) 4. [Fortune via Yahoo Finance, "Applied Materials' $5 billion AI lab aims to cut chip development time in half", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/applied-materials-5-billion-ai-231526213.html) 5. [Yahoo Finance, "TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: 65% Profit Growth, But Net Margin Seen Slipping to 50%", 12 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tsmc-q3-earnings-preview-65-070552524.html) 6. [Seeking Alpha News, "TSMC Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors eye margins as AI demand drives 50% revenue growth", 14 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4652468-tsmc-q3-earnings-preview-investors-eye-margins-as-ai-demand-drives-50-revenue-growth) 7. [TSMC, annual figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179) 8. [ASML Investor Relations, "ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales and €5.0 billion net income in Q3 2026", 14 October 2026](https://www.investor.asml.com/news) 9. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "TSMC shares rise ahead of closely watched Q3 earnings", 14 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tsmc-shares-rise-ahead-closely-054241637.html) --- ASML missed by $50 million, raised its floor, and chip tools sold off anyway — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/asml-missed-by-50-million-raised-its-floor-and-chip-tools-sold-off-anyway