--- title: "ASMPT kept its SMT unit, and management says HBM stacking-tool demand waits until 2029" description: "Management's guidance makes the HBM stacking boom smaller and later than the bull case assumed; the revenue that replaces it, logic packaging and AI server assembly, is already in the order book. That split, not the record quarter, decides the stock." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-11T15:45:28.753Z modified: 2026-11-11T15:45:28.753Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/asmpt-kept-its-smt-unit-and-management-says-hbm-stacking-tool-demand-waits-until-2029 language: en keywords: "ASMPT, Advanced Packaging, HBM, Semiconductor Equipment" --- # ASMPT kept its SMT unit, and management says HBM stacking-tool demand waits until 2029 > Management's guidance makes the HBM stacking boom smaller and later than the bull case assumed; the revenue that replaces it, logic packaging and AI server assembly, is already in the order book. That split, not the record quarter, decides the stock. [ASMPT](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asmpt) rose more than 4 percent in Hong Kong on November 11, a move attributed to its [decision to keep the SMT unit](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/asmpt-concludes-strategic-options-assessment-and-retains-smt-solutions-segment-1036718101), the business whose machines place components on AI server circuit boards [1][2]. The retention, announced on November 4, ended [a sale process that had drawn bids above $1 billion](https://www.reuters.com/world/idg-leads-race-asmpts-smt-unit-valued-over-1-billion-sources-say-2026-10-26/) [3]. Neither is the week's most important sentence. In a JPMorgan [note published after third-quarter results](https://unhidea.com/en/articles/research-77d1b1b5052540d8acfc97e5ab4353ff-en), management said HBM4E, the next generation of the stacked memory that sits beside AI processors, may stop at 8 or 12 layers rather than the expected 16, citing tight memory capacity and trade-offs among cost, bandwidth and heat [4]. It expects meaningful demand for its memory stacking tools only from 2029 [4]. *Chart: **Management sees HBM4E stacks at 8 or 12 layers, not the 16 the bull case assumed** Column chart of HBM4E stack heights: 8 and 12 layers as management now flags, against the 16 layers the bull case assumed* *Layer counts per HBM4E stack from management commentary reported in a J.P. Morgan note published after ASMPT's third-quarter results. Taller stacks mean more thermocompression bonds per wafer, and more bonding-tool revenue. Source: UnHideA, collected November 9, 2026. [4]* The memory boom did not cancel; its clock restarted. Last week's 14 percent sell-off priced the wrong half of the company [4]. ## Fewer layers means fewer bonding machines Thermocompression bonding is where HBM enthusiasm becomes tool revenue: every added layer of DRAM in a stack is another bond a machine must place, so taller stacks sell more machines. With stacks staying short, the memory side of that equation shrinks until 16-layer designs spread, around 2029 [4]. The layer guidance is on the record; the recovery date is a projection, and it has just moved back. ## Logic, not memory, pays now [JPMorgan](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/jpmorgan-chase) estimates HBM bonding tools are already a small share of ASMPT's advanced packaging revenue this fiscal year, so a flat memory market leaves little to lose [4]. The company guides the bonding-tool market above $1.6 billion in 2028 [4]. *Chart: **Logic, not memory, holds the bulk of a bonding-tool market guided above $1.6 billion for 2028** Column chart of the 2028 thermocompression bonding-tool market: above $1.6 billion in total, logic chips about $1.2 billion of it, HBM memory the remainder* *The thermocompression bonding-tool market guided above $1.6 billion for 2028, with logic chips taking 70 to 80 percent, per a J.P. Morgan note after ASMPT's third-quarter results. Bars sit at the midpoints of the guided shares; ranges show the spread. Source: UnHideA, collected November 9, 2026. [4]* Logic chips will take 70 to 80 percent of it, by the bank's estimate [4]. In the CoWoS-L advanced packaging ecosystem, ASMPT holds more than 90 percent of chip-to-substrate tools [4]. [The quarter's record bookings](https://theinference.org/article/asmpt-booked-a-record-1-1-billion-in-orders-but-guided-flat-q4-equipment-revenue-the-stock-fell-11) came from there: [record logic chip-to-substrate orders](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/asmpt-announces-2026-third-quarter-results-record-group-bookings-and-strong-earnings-across-semi-smt-1036673649) from packaging subcontractors of a leading advanced logic customer, plus photonics [5]. Behind them, second-generation hybrid bonding tools, close to the market leader's capability, enter customer qualification within 12 to 18 months [4]. ## The HBM dollar goes into the wafer first The same week, [ASM International](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asm-international), the Dutch maker of deposition tools for wafer fabs and a quarter-owner of ASMPT, posted record quarterly revenue up 45 percent, with memory sales rising sharply on HBM-related DRAM [3][6][7]. It [pulled its 2030 revenue target forward into 2027](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/asm-international-pulls-2030-revenue-target-into-2027-after-record-ai-chip-quarter/ar-AA2gbNkO) [6][7]. The AI memory dollar is landing in the tools that make the DRAM dies before it reaches the machines that stack them. ## Server assembly carries the company until memory returns Keeping SMT applies the same logic one layer up: AI-related applications have grown past half the segment's bookings this year, which is why the board preferred holding on to a billion-dollar sale [2]. China, more than 40 percent of historical revenue, is the next order book, with new orders expected within six months, and the next risk [4]. JPMorgan keeps an overweight rating and a June 2027 target of HK$200, on earnings it expects to rise 69 percent next year [4]. The shares trade near HK$96 [8]. The full-year results will give the memory line its first full-year number, and they will show a company paid for logic packaging and server assembly, waiting on a memory cycle that arrives at the end of the decade. ## Takeaway ASMPT's HBM stacking-tool demand is a 2029 story; logic packaging and AI server assembly pay the bills until then, and that split decides the stock. ## Sources 1. [Futu News, Hong Kong Stocks Move: ASMPT (00522) rises over 4% in early trading; company decides to retain SMT business, 11 November 2026](https://news.futunn.com/en/post/1004116935/hong-kong-stocks-move-asmpt-00522-rises-over-4-in) 2. [Markets Insider (ASMPT press release), ASMPT Concludes Strategic Options Assessment and Retains SMT Solutions Segment, 4 November 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/asmpt-concludes-strategic-options-assessment-and-retains-smt-solutions-segment-1036718101) 3. [Reuters, IDG leads race for ASMPT's SMT unit valued at over $1 billion, sources say, 26 October 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/idg-leads-race-asmpts-smt-unit-valued-over-1-billion-sources-say-2026-10-26/) 4. [UnHideA, J.P. Morgan: ASMPT sees stronger logic-chip packaging demand, while HBM equipment recovery is delayed, collected 9 November 2026](https://unhidea.com/en/articles/research-77d1b1b5052540d8acfc97e5ab4353ff-en) 5. [Markets Insider (ASMPT press release), ASMPT Announces 2026 Third Quarter Results: Record Group Bookings and Strong Earnings Across SEMI & SMT, 27 October 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/asmpt-announces-2026-third-quarter-results-record-group-bookings-and-strong-earnings-across-semi-smt-1036673649) 6. [Securities.io, ASM International Launches €300 Million Share Repurchase Program, 11 November 2026](https://www.securities.io/asm-international-launches-300-million-share-repurchase-program/) 7. [Tech Times via MSN, ASM International pulls 2030 revenue target into 2027 after record AI chip quarter, 27 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/asm-international-pulls-2030-revenue-target-into-2027-after-record-ai-chip-quarter/ar-AA2gbNkO) 8. [Yahoo Finance Singapore / Simply Wall St, ASMPT (SEHK:522) Stock May Be 10% Undervalued On Cash Flow, 11 November 2026](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/asmpt-sehk-522-stock-may-061854091.html) --- ASMPT kept its SMT unit, and management says HBM stacking-tool demand waits until 2029 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/asmpt-kept-its-smt-unit-and-management-says-hbm-stacking-tool-demand-waits-until-2029