---
title: "AST SpaceMobile, down 47% this year, faces a Viasat FCC objection and four carriers weighing their own bid"
description: "Viasat asked the FCC to throw out AST's overseas spectrum request, and four European carriers AST counts as partners signed only a letter of intent to explore their own satellite-spectrum bid, with no satellite provider chosen. The documentary record leans short; a dated year-end coverage milestone decides it."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Robotics & Defense"
published: 2026-10-23T13:17:25.474Z
modified: 2026-10-23T13:17:25.474Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ast-spacemobile-down-47-this-year-faces-a-viasat-fcc-objection-and-four-carriers-weighing-their-own-bid
language: en
keywords: "AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX, Satellites, Direct To Device, Spectrum, FCC"
---

# AST SpaceMobile, down 47% this year, faces a Viasat FCC objection and four carriers weighing their own bid

> Viasat asked the FCC to throw out AST's overseas spectrum request, and four European carriers AST counts as partners signed only a letter of intent to explore their own satellite-spectrum bid, with no satellite provider chosen. The documentary record leans short; a dated year-end coverage milestone decides it.

The moves that hit [AST SpaceMobile](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ast-spacemobile) this week lean short, and for a documentary reason: the companies it needs as customers are choosing control over commitment. Viasat, a US satellite operator, [asked the Federal Communications Commission to reject AST's overseas spectrum request](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/asts-stock-slips-overnight-viasat-urges-fcc-to-reject-ast-spacemobile-s-fatally-flawed-overseas-spectrum-bid/ar-AA2fCISl) as "fatally flawed," citing interference with its European Aviation Network in the 1980–1995 MHz band [1].

Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, four of Europe's largest mobile operators, [signed only a letter of intent to explore a joint bid for Europe's mobile-satellite spectrum](https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/four-european-operators-sign-letter-of-intent-to-explore-a-joint-bid-for-mobile-satellite-services), with the satellite partner still to be selected [2]. AST, the listed pure play on connecting ordinary smartphones from space, fell on Thursday, October 22, for a third straight session, down 47% this year and squeezed by [SpaceX's drive to become a fourth US carrier](https://theinference.org/article/bernstein-trimmed-verizon-comcast-t-mobile-and-charter-targets-on-spacex-s-carrier-entry-stocks-rose) [3].

*Chart: **The satellite incumbent is up 71% this year; the phone-from-space pure play is down 47%** Bar chart of year-to-date share price changes: Viasat up 71 percent, Rocket Lab down 27 percent, Planet down 34 percent, AST SpaceMobile down 47 percent.*

*Share price change year to date through October 22, 2026, per Stocktwits' weekly space roundup. [4]*

## SpaceX's answer to the physics objection is to buy the ground

Mark Bayliss, a member of an FCC advisory council, framed the fork: [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) could increasingly become the network, while AST could become the satellite layer used by existing networks [3].

SpaceX is spending toward the first branch, in [talks we covered as they lifted tower stocks](https://theinference.org/article/spacex-s-reported-8-billion-spectrum-buy-sent-tower-stocks-up-on-a-lease-that-doesn-t-exist) to reach at least 80,000 US cell sites, including with the tower operator [Crown Castle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/crown-castle); the analyst firm TD Cowen prices that build above $80 billion [5]. SpaceX can pay for much of it from inside: [its AI business alone brought in $7.6 billion of revenue last quarter](https://theinference.org/article/spacex-is-now-half-an-ai-company-and-starlink-is-paying-for-it) [4].

T-Mobile's finance chief, Pete Osvaldik, says even "a million satellites" cannot "break the fundamental laws of physics" [6]. SpaceX's rebuttal is to buy its way past the objection: femtocells, small indoor base stations, inside buildings, and cell-site access everywhere else [6][5]. Where carriers would rent a satellite layer from AST, SpaceX buys the pieces physics demands and owns the network that results.

## Europe validated the satellite layer and left its seller contestable

The letter of intent is the bull case and the bear case in one document. AST welcomed it, calling the four signatories its own mobile network operator partners [1].

The operators want direct-to-device service, ordinary smartphones connecting straight to satellites, with ground infrastructure and coordination functions kept in Europe and no constellation of their own [2]: precisely the layer AST sells through Satellite Connect Europe, its venture with Vodafone, which CCS Insight analyst Luke Pearce calls a credible contender [7]. But the satellite partner is "still to be selected," and the operators say the bid "does not replace existing satellite partnerships" [2].

[AST's own announcement](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-advances-readiness-ahead-113000020.html) still lists, among its risks, negotiating definitive agreements to supersede the preliminary agreements behind partnerships covering more than 3 billion subscribers [8]. Rakuten, the Japanese carrier aiming at commercial service on AST satellites this quarter, is the committed exception; Japan's J-LEO disaster-resilience program stresses ownership and operating rights to safeguard communications in emergencies, and who controls the network mid-crisis is the point [3].

## A dated milestone settles what the argument cannot

AST has enabled more than 3,000 US coverage cells; activating roughly 5,600, it says, is the prerequisite for initial, intermittent service in the US, Canada, Japan, the UK and Saudi Arabia before year-end [8]. It has launched 13 satellites, against earlier guidance that about 25 were needed for intermittent US service, and the next launch schedule could come with [third-quarter results on November 9, 2026](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/ast-spacemobile-says-limited-coverage-coming-soon-in-us-and-beyond) [7].

*Chart: **The year-end milestone needs nearly twice today's cells and satellites** Range chart showing AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its year-end milestone: US coverage cells from 3,000 enabled to roughly 5,600 targeted, and satellites launched from 13 to about 25 needed for intermittent US service.*

*Counts as of this week. The 5,600-cell activation is AST's stated year-end target; the 25-satellite figure is earlier company guidance for intermittent US service. Sources: AST SpaceMobile release; Light Reading. [7][8]*

The short case confirms on any of three: a missed year-end milestone, an FCC win for Viasat, or Europe naming another satellite partner [1][2]. The bull case confirms on one, a carrier signed to a definitive contract [8]. Until one lands, the evidence runs with the bears. The Stocktwits traders arguing that a fourth carrier forces operators toward AST have a trading view with no carrier commitment behind it, and the year-end milestone is the test [3].

## Takeaway

The documentary record leans short on AST SpaceMobile: its partners sign letters of intent rather than contracts, Viasat is pressing the FCC to kill its overseas spectrum bid, and a dated year-end coverage milestone is the test that settles the argument.

## Sources

1. [Stocktwits via MSN, 'ASTS stock slips overnight: Viasat urges FCC to reject AST SpaceMobile's fatally flawed overseas spectrum bid', 19 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/asts-stock-slips-overnight-viasat-urges-fcc-to-reject-ast-spacemobile-s-fatally-flawed-overseas-spectrum-bid/ar-AA2fCISl)
2. [Vodafone newsroom, 'Four European operators sign Letter of Intent to explore a joint bid for Mobile Satellite Services spectrum and advance Direct-to-Device services', 19 October 2026](https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/four-european-operators-sign-letter-of-intent-to-explore-a-joint-bid-for-mobile-satellite-services)
3. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, 'ASTS Slips Overnight: Retail Sees Upside In SpaceX's 80,000-Site Push - FCC Adviser Sees Global Satellite Power Race', 23 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asts-slips-overnight-retail-sees-051333884.html)
4. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, 'Stocktwits Space Race Weekly: RKLB, VSAT Beat SPCX With Modest Gains - ASTS And PL Sink Deeper', 23 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stocktwits-space-race-weekly-rklb-075715270.html)
5. [Reuters via MSN, 'SpaceX seeks access to 80,000 US cell sites for wireless network, Bloomberg News reports', 22 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/spacex-seeks-access-to-80000-us-cell-sites-for-wireless-network-bloomberg-news-reports/ar-AA2fS7XP)
6. [Benzinga via Yahoo Finance, 'Elon Musk Says SpaceX's Starlink Is Rewriting Telecom With Entirely New Pieces as T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon Downplay the Threat', 22 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/elon-musk-says-spacexs-starlink-033008082.html)
7. [Light Reading, 'AST SpaceMobile limited coverage coming soon in US and beyond', 21 October 2026](https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/ast-spacemobile-says-limited-coverage-coming-soon-in-us-and-beyond)
8. [AST SpaceMobile via Business Wire and Yahoo Finance, 'AST SpaceMobile Advances Service Readiness Ahead of Initial Space-Based Cellular Broadband Coverage in Key Global Markets', 20 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-advances-readiness-ahead-113000020.html)


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AST SpaceMobile, down 47% this year, faces a Viasat FCC objection and four carriers weighing their own bid — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ast-spacemobile-down-47-this-year-faces-a-viasat-fcc-objection-and-four-carriers-weighing-their-own-bid