---
title: "Astera Labs says its Scorpio X-Series exits 2026 above a $1 billion run rate; one customer is 53%"
description: "Finance chief Nick Aberle told BMO's technology conference on November 12 that the Scorpio X-Series switch line, at slightly above zero revenue in Q1, will exit 2026 above a $1 billion annualized run rate. The stock closed that day at $227.79, below both its moving averages and about $93 under the consensus target."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-11-13T14:17:00.560Z
modified: 2026-11-13T14:17:00.560Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/astera-labs-says-its-scorpio-x-series-exits-2026-above-a-1-billion-run-rate-one-customer-is-53
language: en
keywords: "Astera Labs, Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, Earnings"
---

# Astera Labs says its Scorpio X-Series exits 2026 above a $1 billion run rate; one customer is 53%

> Finance chief Nick Aberle told BMO's technology conference on November 12 that the Scorpio X-Series switch line, at slightly above zero revenue in Q1, will exit 2026 above a $1 billion annualized run rate. The stock closed that day at $227.79, below both its moving averages and about $93 under the consensus target.

## From slightly above zero to a $1 billion run rate

At BMO Capital's Technology and Innovation Leaders conference on November 12, [Astera Labs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/astera-labs) finance chief Nick Aberle put a number on the company's fastest ramp [1][2]. The Scorpio X-Series, the switch that connects AI accelerators inside a server, booked slightly above zero revenue in the first quarter and should exit 2026 at an annualized run rate well above $1 billion [1][2]. A run rate projects one quarter's pace across a year; it is not booked revenue. Two hyperscalers ship it today, with four or five customers expected by year end and a pipeline of possible buyers in the teens for 2027 [1].

He also priced the silicon per XPU, the accelerator chip at the heart of an AI server, at about $50 four years ago and upwards of $1,000 today, with a path to doubling every generation [1]. Astera's take per accelerator has risen about twentyfold in four years, and the stock has still lost a quarter of its value in three months [1][3].

## Analysts cut targets after a 154% quarter

The quarter behind the talk was a record: $584.9 million of revenue, up 154% year over year, with the fourth quarter guided to $730 million to $750 million [4]. The stock still closed November 12 at $227.79, below its 50-day and 200-day averages, about $93 under the $320.85 consensus target [5]. TD Cowen's November 4 cut to $225 sits below the share price; RBC, [Evercore](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/evercore), UBS and Susquehanna trimmed theirs after [the results](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/astera-labs-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-1036709315) [5][6].

*Chart: **Revenue has risen nearly eightfold in nine quarters, and the Q4 guide points higher** Column chart of Astera Labs quarterly revenue, rising from $76.9 million in Q2 2024 to $584.9 million in Q3 2026, with the fourth quarter guided to $730 million to $750 million.*

*Quarterly revenue, $ millions, by fiscal quarter; the last column is company guidance of $730 million to $750 million. Sources: Astera Labs SEC filings, Q3 2026 results release. [9][4]*

*Chart: **Only TD Cowen's target sits below Astera's $227.79 close** Bar chart of analyst price targets for Astera Labs, from Morgan Stanley's $389 down to TD Cowen's $225, against the November 12 close of $227.79.*

*Analyst price targets for ALAB as of November 12, 2026; the reference line is that day's closing price. Sources: MarketBeat, TradingView News. [5][6]*

## One buyer at 53%, and a thinner margin

[The filings behind the hesitation](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001736297) are plain. One direct customer took 53% of third-quarter revenue and the top three took 77%, a concentration [The Inference flagged on November 4](https://theinference.org/article/astera-labs-584-9-million-quarter-ran-53-through-one-customer-up-from-23-a-year-earlier) [7]. Gross margin fell 390 basis points from a year earlier to 72.3% as lower-margin Scorpio hardware took over the mix, and the fourth-quarter guide holds it near 72% [4][7]. Inventory has tripled since December to $200.9 million [4].

*Chart: **Gross margin peaked at 76.3% and slides as Scorpio hardware takes over** Line chart of Astera Labs GAAP gross margin from Q4 2024 through the Q4 2026 guide, peaking at 76.3% and sliding to about 72%.*

*GAAP gross margin, percent of revenue, by fiscal quarter; the final point is company guidance. Sources: SEC filings, Q3 2026 press release. [8][4]*

## Insiders sold $126 million while Amazon opened a stake

[Insiders sold about $126.1 million of stock last quarter](https://theinference.org/article/astera-labs-guided-revenue-up-40-insiders-sold-486-million-and-bought-nothing), including chief executive [Jitendra Mohan](https://theinference.org/markets/people/jitendra-mohan)'s $30.8 million tax-withholding sale and director [Manuel Alba](https://theinference.org/markets/people/manuel-alba)'s $51.3 million under a pre-arranged plan [5]; [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon), which also holds a warrant agreement with the company, opened a $134.2 million stake in the second quarter [4][5].

## What has to hold through Q4

BMO, the host bank, initiated at Outperform with a $375 target that week; [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) carries $389 [6]. AWS is ramping the sibling P-Series switch across [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)'s GB200 and GB300 racks, with Vera Rubin racks to follow [1]. The fourth-quarter report settles the argument either way: the guide implies about 27% sequential growth [3], and the premium survives only if margin holds near 72% while the X-Series broadens past the customer that already carries most of the revenue.

## Takeaway

Astera Labs says its Scorpio X-Series will exit 2026 above a $1 billion annualized run rate, but one customer is 53% of revenue, gross margin is down 390 basis points, and the stock trades below both its moving averages.

## Sources

1. [TradingView News (MarketBeat), "Astera Labs Sees Scorpio X-Series Exiting Year Above $1 Billion Revenue Run Rate", 12 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketbeat:a0f8324c3094b:0-astera-labs-sees-scorpio-x-series-exiting-year-above-1-billion-revenue-run-rate/)
2. [Seeking Alpha, "Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Presents at BMO Capital Technology and Innovation Leaders Conference Transcript", 12 November 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4967555-astera-labs-inc-alab-presents-at-bmo-capital-technology-and-innovation-leaders-conference)
3. [Zacks Investment Research via MSN, "Astera Labs plunges 27% in 3 months: Buy, sell, or hold the stock?", 4 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/astera-labs-plunges-27-in-3-months-buy-sell-or-hold-the-stock/ar-AA2gLuFK)
4. [GlobeNewswire via Markets Insider, "Astera Labs Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results", 3 November 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/astera-labs-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-1036709315)
5. [MarketBeat, "Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB) Shares Down 1.4% - Here's What Happened", 12 November 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-astera-labs-nasdaq-alab-shares-down-14-heres-what-happened-2026-11-12/)
6. [TradingView News, "Weekly Recap: Record Q3 results and analyst coverage and target revisions", November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:d90cfc5c3b3be:0-weekly-recap-record-q3-results-and-analyst-coverage-and-target-revisions/)
7. [TokenPost, "Astera Labs' Three Largest Direct Customers Accounted for 77% of Q3 Revenue", November 2026](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/55772)
8. [Astera Labs quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001736297)
9. [Astera Labs, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001736297)


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Astera Labs says its Scorpio X-Series exits 2026 above a $1 billion run rate; one customer is 53% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/astera-labs-says-its-scorpio-x-series-exits-2026-above-a-1-billion-run-rate-one-customer-is-53