---
title: "Aurora reports October 28 with a $9.64 billion valuation against $2.99 million of expected revenue"
description: "Aurora Innovation reports after the close on October 28, 2026, with analysts modeling a 12.4-cent loss on $2.99 million of revenue for a company valued at $9.64 billion. Filings show Uber sold 168.9 million shares in twelve months while its freight arm books driverless loads."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Robotics & Defense"
published: 2026-10-26T13:10:58.604Z
modified: 2026-10-26T13:10:58.604Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aurora-reports-october-28-with-a-9-64-billion-valuation-against-2-99-million-of-expected-revenue
language: en
keywords: "Aurora Innovation, Autonomous Vehicles, Driverless Trucks, Earnings, Uber"
---

# Aurora reports October 28 with a $9.64 billion valuation against $2.99 million of expected revenue

> Aurora Innovation reports after the close on October 28, 2026, with analysts modeling a 12.4-cent loss on $2.99 million of revenue for a company valued at $9.64 billion. Filings show Uber sold 168.9 million shares in twelve months while its freight arm books driverless loads.

## Real trucks, rounding-error revenue

[Aurora Innovation](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/aurora-innovation), the self-driving truck developer listed on Nasdaq as AUR, reports third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the [business review call](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/events) at 5:00 pm ET [1][2]. Analysts model [a loss of 12.4 cents a share on $2.99 million of revenue](https://zolmax.com/investing/aurora-innovation-aur-set-to-release-quarterly-earnings-on-wednesday/12048043.html), against a market value of $9.64 billion [1]. The trucks are not in doubt.

Since May 1, 2025, Class 8 tractors have worked the 240 miles of I-45 between Dallas and Houston, a service Aurora calls [the first commercial driverless heavy-truck operation on US public roads](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/aurora-begins-commercial-driverless-trucking-in-texas-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-freight), hauling for [Uber](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/uber) Freight and Hirschbach [3][4].

## What the record already shows

Roughly 20 to 30 driverless trucks operate now, on more than 500,000 driverless miles since launch, and Aurora says it is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 trucks on an [$80 million revenue run rate](https://theinference.org/article/volvo-hands-aurora-the-driverless-flag-six-days-before-the-80-million-test), en route to 30,000 trucks by 2030 [5][6][10].

The second quarter showed the other edge of the scale: $2 million of revenue against a $266 million operating loss and $225 million of cash burned, leaving $1.2 billion after a $215 million share sale [6][7]. Full-year guidance of $14 million to $16 million, after $3 million of first-half revenue, implies a second half roughly four times the first [7].

*Chart: **The quarterly net loss is widening, not narrowing, as the fleet scales** Line chart of Aurora's quarterly net loss from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, widening from about $190 million to $270 million*

*Net loss by calendar quarter, USD millions, per Aurora's SEC filings. [8]*

## The camps are $11 apart

[Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) at $18 and Canaccord at $17 underwrite the 2030 plan; [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) holds at $7 and neutral, Wall Street Zen rates the stock a strong sell, and short interest is 17.98 percent of the float [1][7]. The shares opened Monday at $4.81, 44 percent below their 52-week high of $8.56 [1].

*Chart: **Every published broker target sits above where the shares trade** Bar chart comparing Aurora's share price of $4.81 with broker price targets from Goldman Sachs $7 to Morgan Stanley $18*

*Share price at Monday's open, October 26, 2026, and broker price targets published September 11 to October 8, 2026, USD. [1][7]*

## The humans still holding the wrench

The trucks cannot reverse without help or sound their own horn, and people still load, dock and refuel; some cabs carry observers because partners such as [Paccar](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/paccar), the truck maker behind Peterbilt, require it [9][10]. Run-rate gross-margin breakeven has slipped to the first half of 2027, from exiting 2026, on what the chief financial officer called a slightly slower fleet ramp [5]. Werner Enterprises, still negotiating its own deal, says [the economics have "a gap"](https://theinference.org/article/aurora-wants-5-billion-for-driverless-trucks-werner-says-the-math-does-not-work-yet) that only scale closes [5].

## Who is selling while the trucks learn

Uber's Neben Holdings [sold 29.4 million Aurora shares at $6.205 in September](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/uber-technologies-stock-falls-as-40-million-california-ruling-and-aurora-stake-sale-weigh-on/70128167), about $182.3 million, keeping 9.2 percent of the Class A stock; [over twelve months it sold 168.9 million shares and bought none](https://theinference.org/article/aurora-promises-30-000-driverless-trucks-by-2030-uber-already-sold-1-1-billion-of-that-story) [11]. Insiders sold $44.8 million of stock last quarter, including director [Michelangelo Volpi](https://theinference.org/markets/people/michelangelo-volpi)'s 2.84 million shares at $7.00 [1]. At the guided burn of $190 million to $220 million a quarter, each day of driverless freight costs about $2.2 million of shareholder cash [6].

## What Wednesday decides

Three markers: revenue against $2.99 million, burn against the guide, and the fleet count against 200 by year-end [1][5][6]. The tell underneath is observer-free miles. Until that share of mileage rises, the hardware curve is being paid for out of the share register, as June's $215 million issuance showed [6].

## Takeaway

Aurora's driverless trucks are real, running daily freight on I-45, but Wednesday's report tests whether a company booking $2.99 million of quarterly revenue can justify a $9.64 billion valuation while Uber and insiders sell and each day of freight costs about $2.2 million of shareholder cash.

## Sources

1. [Zolmax, "Aurora Innovation (AUR) Set to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday", 26 October 2026](https://zolmax.com/investing/aurora-innovation-aur-set-to-release-quarterly-earnings-on-wednesday/12048043.html)
2. [Aurora Innovation investor relations, Events page listing the 3Q26 Business Review Call, retrieved 26 October 2026](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/events)
3. [Aurora Innovation press release, "Aurora Begins Commercial Driverless Trucking in Texas, Ushering in a New Era of Freight", 1 May 2025](https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/aurora-begins-commercial-driverless-trucking-in-texas-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-freight)
4. [The Wall Street Journal, Esther Fung, "The Most Polite Trucker in America Is a Driverless 18-Wheeler", 16 October 2026 (lede loaded; full article behind subscription)](https://www.wsj.com/business/driverless-trucks-18-wheeler-aurora-35b89c45)
5. [FreightWaves via Yahoo Finance, Thomas Wasson, "Aurora plans 30,000 driverless trucks as carriers weigh cost", 27 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/aurora-plans-30-000-driverless-192727729.html)
6. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, "Aurora Innovation's Road to Profitability Runs Through Fleet Expansion", 27 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/aurora-innovation-road-profitability-runs-203723629.html)
7. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, "Aurora Innovation (AUR): What Could Drive AUR Higher or Lower From Here?", 27 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aurora-innovation-aur-could-drive-094126601.html)
8. [Aurora Innovation quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 26 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001828108)
9. [ABAB News, "Aurora Innovation operates driverless heavy trucks on Texas I-45", 26 October 2026](https://www.ababnews.com/en/news/64e9a7b5-8a71-4d11-8b7f-01ca480e029e)
10. [Aerospace and Mechanical Insider via MSN, Jonathan Barrett, "Aurora plans 200 driverless highway trucks, but people still handle basics", 19 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/aurora-plans-200-driverless-highway-trucks-but-people-still-handle-basics/ar-AA2fzLDX)
11. [ad-hoc-news, "Uber Technologies stock falls as $40 million California ruling and Aurora stake sale weigh on sentiment", 18 September 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/uber-technologies-stock-falls-as-40-million-california-ruling-and-aurora-stake-sale-weigh-on/70128167)


---

Aurora reports October 28 with a $9.64 billion valuation against $2.99 million of expected revenue — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/aurora-reports-october-28-with-a-9-64-billion-valuation-against-2-99-million-of-expected-revenue