--- title: "BigBear.ai raised guidance for the first time, then wrote down the same unit another $76.7 million" description: "Third-quarter revenue rose 31% to $43.6 million and the 2026 forecast went up for the first time. The 10-Q filed a day later writes the same reporting unit down a second time, with only 23% of a $330 million backlog funded." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Robotics & Defense" published: 2026-11-07T00:03:07.253Z modified: 2026-11-07T00:03:07.253Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/bigbear-ai-raised-guidance-for-the-first-time-then-wrote-down-the-same-unit-another-76-7-million language: en keywords: "BigBear.ai, Earnings, Guidance, Goodwill Impairment, Defense Tech" --- # BigBear.ai raised guidance for the first time, then wrote down the same unit another $76.7 million > Third-quarter revenue rose 31% to $43.6 million and the 2026 forecast went up for the first time. The 10-Q filed a day later writes the same reporting unit down a second time, with only 23% of a $330 million backlog funded. ## The quarter that answered the preview [BigBear.ai](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bigbear-ai) (NYSE: BBAI), the McLean, Virginia defense-AI contractor, reported third-quarter revenue of $43.6 million on October 27, up 31% year over year and 18.6% sequentially, a third consecutive quarter of growth [1]. Zacks had set the consensus bar at $38.9 million, a 17.5% gain [2], where TipRanks' panel [still expected a decline](https://theinference.org/article/bigbear-ai-reports-tonight-as-tipranks-sees-revenue-down-9-5-and-zacks-sees-it-up-17-5). Chief executive [Kevin McAleenan](https://theinference.org/markets/people/kevin-mcaleenan) [raised full-year guidance to $150 million to $165 million](https://cryptobriefing.com/bigbear-ai-raises-2026-revenue-guidance/), the first raise in the company's history and 5% above the old midpoint [1][8]. Gross margin climbed 878 basis points to 31.2%, carried by the generative-AI platform acquired with Ask Sage in December 2025, which added the FBI, the Coast Guard, NASA, the Department of Energy and Veterans Affairs as customers [1]. *Chart: **Three straight quarters of growth after the 2025 slide** BigBear.ai quarterly revenue from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026, in millions of dollars, showing the 2025 slide and three quarters of recovery* *Quarterly revenue in USD millions, calendar quarters, from BigBear.ai's SEC filings. [9]* ## A second write-down of the same business The quarterly report filed on October 28 gave the $91.9 million net loss its meaning [3]. [Its goodwill note](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1836981/000183698126000092/R13.htm) records a $76.7 million noncash impairment, the second write-down of the same reporting unit after $70.6 million in the second quarter of 2025, both triggered by downward revisions of the company's own forecasts and both run at a 12% discount rate [3]. Accumulated impairments total $285.9 million, and goodwill fell from $241.1 million to $161.7 million during the quarter [3]. Adjusted EBITDA stayed negative at $9.1 million [1]. The 2026 forecast went up, the long-term forecast went down, and both were filed as true within 24 hours [1]. ## Backlog grew; the funded share went the other way [Backlog rose 22% from the second quarter to $330 million](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262243951-tradingkey) on more than 25 contracts worth over $225 million [1]. About 23% of that is funded, money agencies have actually obligated, a thinner share than the roughly 29% [noted on October 16](https://theinference.org/article/bigbear-ai-s-225-million-of-contracts-is-a-ceiling-not-a-check) [4]. The rest waits on appropriations and task orders [4]. Against it sits almost $400 million of cash and investments, with about $17 million of convertible debt maturing in December that chief financial officer Sean Ricker said the company expects to repay, entering 2027 debt-free [1][8]. ## Cantor cut to $3.00 while retail turned bullish Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver lowered his price target from $4.00 to $3.00 on October 28, keeping a neutral rating [6]. Stocktwits sentiment flipped from bearish to bullish overnight [5]. The stock was $2.23 on November 5, down 56% for the year as of late October, and [slid about 10% on November 6](https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/bigbearai-aktie-im-ki-ausverkauf-geht-es-10-runter-959602) in a broad selloff of AI shares [7][5][6]. The raised range needs roughly $35 million to $50 million of fourth-quarter revenue on nine-month sales of about $115 million [4][1]. Two readings settle it: the funded share of backlog at the next print, and whether the December convertible is retired as promised. *Chart: **The raised range needs $35 million to $50 million of Q4 revenue** BigBear.ai quarterly revenue for the first three quarters of 2026 with the fourth-quarter range of $35 million to $50 million implied by the raised full-year guidance* *Quarterly revenue in USD millions. Q1 to Q3 from BigBear.ai's SEC filings; Q4 is the midpoint of the $35 million to $50 million the raised full-year range of $150 million to $165 million implies on about $115 million of nine-month sales. [9][4][1]* ## Takeaway BigBear.ai's first-ever guidance raise and a second $76.7 million write-down of the same unit went out within 24 hours; a 23% funded backlog and a December convertible maturity will settle which one holds. ## Sources 1. [TradingKey, "BigBear.ai (BBAI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Revenue Rises 31%, Guidance Raised", 27 October 2026](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262243951-tradingkey) 2. [Zacks via TradingView, "Here's What Investors Must Know Ahead of BigBear.ai's Q3 Earnings", October 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:d5ceb5838094b:0-here-s-what-investors-must-know-ahead-of-bigbear-ai-s-q3-earnings/) 3. [BigBear.ai Holdings Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, goodwill note, filed 28 October 2026, SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1836981/000183698126000092/R13.htm) 4. [Kalkine, "Why Did BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Raise Guidance Despite a Wide Loss?", 5 November 2026](https://kalkine.com/news/artificial-intelligence/why-did-bigbearai-nysebbai-raise-guidance-despite-a-wide-loss) 5. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, "BBAI Stock Drops Overnight: Retail Shrugs Off BigBear's Profit Concerns, Focused On 'Growth'", 28 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bbai-stock-drops-overnight-retail-075802401.html) 6. [Börse Express, "BigBear.ai Aktie: Im KI-Ausverkauf geht es 10% runter", 6 November 2026](https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/bigbearai-aktie-im-ki-ausverkauf-geht-es-10-runter-959602) 7. [Kalkine Media, "What Does BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Latest Results Reveal About Its AI Growth?", 5 November 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/artificial-intelligence/what-does-bigbearai-nysebbai-latest-results-reveal-about-its-ai-growth) 8. [Crypto Briefing, "BigBear.ai raises 2026 revenue guidance to $150 million-$165 million as government AI demand grows", 28 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/bigbear-ai-raises-2026-revenue-guidance/) 9. [BigBear.ai, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 6 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001836981) --- BigBear.ai raised guidance for the first time, then wrote down the same unit another $76.7 million — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/bigbear-ai-raised-guidance-for-the-first-time-then-wrote-down-the-same-unit-another-76-7-million