--- title: "BWX Technologies reports November 2 at 27 times earnings, and the premium waits on a funded fuel plant" description: "The Navy's nuclear monopoly reports Q3 on November 2 with the quarter nearly decided. After a 46% slide it still trades at 27 times earnings against defense primes at 14 to 19, because the market is paying for a fuel plant management has not committed to build." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Robotics & Defense" published: 2026-11-01T18:11:03.467Z modified: 2026-11-01T18:11:03.467Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/bwx-technologies-reports-november-2-at-27-times-earnings-and-the-premium-waits-on-a-funded-fuel-plant language: en keywords: "Earnings, Nuclear, Defense, Valuation, Advanced Reactors" --- # BWX Technologies reports November 2 at 27 times earnings, and the premium waits on a funded fuel plant > The Navy's nuclear monopoly reports Q3 on November 2 with the quarter nearly decided. After a 46% slide it still trades at 27 times earnings against defense primes at 14 to 19, because the market is paying for a fuel plant management has not committed to build. [BWX Technologies](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bwx-technologies) reports third-quarter results on November 2 after the close, and the print is nearly decided before it lands [3]. [Consensus expects $1.19 per share on $992.4 million of revenue](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bwx-technologies-report-q3-results-140900424.html), up 19% and 14.6% respectively, after four straight beats whose pace has slowed from 22% to 2.6% by June [3]. The quarter is not the decision. The multiple is. The stock has already voted. BWXT, the sole supplier of nuclear reactors for the US Navy, has fallen roughly 46% from a 52-week high of $242 to about $130, close to its $123 low, part of [a nuclear complex marked down 35% to more than 80% from its highs](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/NVDA-Q/pressreleases/8579428/) as the AI energy trade cools [1][5]. *Chart: **Revenue has grown every quarter for two years, but the beat pace has slowed** Column chart of BWXT quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, rising from $672 million to $902 million.* *Quarterly revenue as reported in BWXT's SEC filings, in US$ millions. Consensus looks for $992.4 million in Q3 2026, a 14.6% rise. [7]* ## The premium survived the crash Even at those prices, BWXT trades at [about 27 times this year's consensus earnings](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bwx-technologies-cheap-46-slide-2611/) and 25 times next year's [1]. The defense primes doing comparable government work are far cheaper on the same basis: [Northrop Grumman](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/northrop-grumman) at 14.6x trailing EBITDA, [Lockheed Martin](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lockheed-martin) at 14.7x, [General Dynamics](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/general-dynamics) at 16.9x, RTX at 19.5x [1]. *Chart: **BWXT still trades far above its defense peers even after a 46% slide** Bars ranking trailing EBITDA multiples: Northrop Grumman 14.6, Lockheed Martin 14.7, General Dynamics 16.9, RTX 19.5, BWXT 29, showing BWXT trades at a wide premium to defense peers.* *Trailing enterprise value to EBITDA multiples, per Ainvest data cited in the November 1 analysis of BWXT. Higher is more expensive. [1]* What the premium buys is the advanced-reactor option. Backlog reached about $8.4 billion in the June quarter, up from $6 billion a year earlier, with trailing book-to-bill of 1.7x [1][4]. On October 29, BWXT [signed a multi-year agreement to supply TRISO fuel](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/antares-bwxt-in-triso-procurement-deal) made from HALEU to Antares Nuclear from its Lynchburg, Virginia line, the same line that took Antares' Mark-0 reactor critical in June and will fuel the electricity-producing Mark-1 in 2027 [2]. [The Army's Janus program has committed $2.2 billion across five private vendors](https://old.reddit.com/r/ObscurePatentDangers/comments/1xh21ts/) including BWXT [6]. ## The option is thinner than the price suggests Look closer at the option, though. The Antares deal covers an initial tonne of fuel, and Antares has dual-sourced: Standard Nuclear agreed in August to deliver a minimum of one and up to eight tonnes to 2035 [2]. Fort Campbell's 20-megawatt reactor operates in the early 2030s [2]. Management has deferred committing to the large commercial TRISO plant until reactor orders firm up, the single biggest revenue leg of the thesis, while guiding commercial margins down to about 13% on capacity investment, against roughly 20.5% in the government business that grows high-single digits and is about 68% of revenue [1]. The counterargument is real: BWXT is the standing Western fuel supplier that earns work whichever reactor design wins, and the cash engine, about $322 million of trailing free cash flow, is durable [4]. But durable is not the same as cheap. Tomorrow's in-line quarter removes none of the premium. The tell is a funded TRISO plant decision, or a price closer to the primes. ## Takeaway BWXT's November 2 print is almost certainly in line, so the stock's 27-times-earnings premium to defense primes hinges on a management commitment to fund the large commercial TRISO fuel plant that has not yet come. ## Sources 1. [Ainvest, BWX Technologies: Still Not Cheap After a 46% Slide, 1 November 2026](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bwx-technologies-cheap-46-slide-2611/) 2. [World Nuclear News, Antares, BWXT in TRISO fuel procurement deal, 29 October 2026](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/antares-bwxt-in-triso-procurement-deal) 3. [Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance, BWX Technologies to Report Q3 Results, 30 October 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bwx-technologies-report-q3-results-140900424.html) 4. [Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, Is BWX Technologies (BWXT) Priced Right for Its Cash Flow Story?, 30 October 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bwx-technologies-bwxt-priced-cash-141558967.html) 5. [The Motley Fool via The Globe and Mail, Nuclear Stocks Have Crashed 35% to 88% From Their Highs, 1 November 2026](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/NVDA-Q/pressreleases/8579428/) 6. [r/ObscurePatentDangers, U.S. Army Awards $2.2 Billion In Janus Program Microreactor Contracts, 28 October 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/ObscurePatentDangers/comments/1xh21ts/) 7. [BWX Technologies, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 1 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001486957) --- BWX Technologies reports November 2 at 27 times earnings, and the premium waits on a funded fuel plant — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/bwx-technologies-reports-november-2-at-27-times-earnings-and-the-premium-waits-on-a-funded-fuel-plant