---
title: "Camtek set a $1.2 billion revenue target, then fell 41% from its high; Besi's October 22 report is the test"
description: "Camtek set a $1.2 billion three-year revenue target on October 14 on more than $800 million of booked orders, and the stock has fallen in both sessions since, to 41% below its high. Besi's results on October 22 are the first referee of whether the AI packaging cycle justifies the $1.2 billion target or the 41% discount."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Markets"
published: 2026-10-18T13:13:46.751Z
modified: 2026-10-18T13:13:46.751Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/camtek-set-a-1-2-billion-revenue-target-then-fell-41-from-its-high-besi-s-october-22-report-is-the-test
language: en
keywords: "Camtek, Besi, Advanced Packaging, Semiconductors, Earnings"
---

# Camtek set a $1.2 billion revenue target, then fell 41% from its high; Besi's October 22 report is the test

> Camtek set a $1.2 billion three-year revenue target on October 14 on more than $800 million of booked orders, and the stock has fallen in both sessions since, to 41% below its high. Besi's results on October 22 are the first referee of whether the AI packaging cycle justifies the $1.2 billion target or the 41% discount.

## A record quarter, sold twice

On October 14, 2026, at [an investor day at the SEMICON West trade show](https://theinference.org/article/camtek-pre-announces-a-record-quarter-and-over-800-million-of-orders-as-applied-materials-won-t-guess), [Camtek](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/camtek) [said September-quarter revenue would be $160-161 million, up 27% on the year and slightly above its own guidance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/camtek-pre-announces-record-q3-130000907.html), and guided the fourth quarter to about $180 million, up 40% [1]. The Israeli maker of inspection tools for advanced chip packages has booked more than $800 million of orders since January, for delivery into 2027 [1].

Nasdaq answered with two red days: a 4.94% fall to $135.72 on the announcement, then another 3.28% on October 16 to $127.07 [2][3]. That leaves the stock 41.17% below its 52-week high of $215.99 [3].

## The ladder management set, and the quarters already filed

Chief executive [Rafi Amit](https://theinference.org/markets/people/rafi-amit)'s ladder runs to about $595 million of revenue in 2026, more than $800 million in 2027, and $1.2 billion within about three years, at 34-36% operating margin against 30% in 2025 [1][4]. About 80% of this year's orders are advanced packaging, and the bank RBC reckons roughly $30 billion of memory packaging-tool spending lands mostly in 2027 and 2028 [4][9].

*Chart: **The ladder asks revenue to more than double what 2025 filed** Camtek annual revenue: $496 million filed for fiscal 2025 against management targets of about $595 million for 2026, more than $800 million for 2027 and $1.2 billion within about three years.*

*Camtek annual revenue, USD millions. FY2025 from SEC filings. FY2026E onward are targets set at the October 14, 2026 investor day: about $595 million in 2026, more than $800 million in 2027 and $1.2 billion within about three years (shown at fiscal 2029), at a 34-36% operating margin target. Sources: Camtek SEC filings; Camtek press release, October 14, 2026. [10][1]*

The filings are slower: revenue grew 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 and 8% in the second, and second-quarter net income fell 31% on the year [5]. The 27% quarter is preliminary and the 40% jump is guidance; the last quarter Camtek actually reported grew 8% [1][5]. A $5.9 billion company is priced at about 208 times trailing earnings [3].

*Chart: **Six slowing quarters, then a jump that is still guidance** Camtek quarterly revenue in millions of dollars from Q3 2024 to Q4 2026; the final two points are the company's preliminary third quarter and its fourth-quarter guidance.*

*Quarterly revenue, USD millions. Reported quarters from Camtek's SEC filings; Q3 '26E is the preliminary $160-161 million range (midpoint shown) and Q4 '26E is company guidance of about $180 million, both announced October 14, 2026. Sources: Camtek SEC filings; Camtek press release. [5][1]*

## The bear math lives next door in Besi

[Besi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/be-semiconductor), the Dutch maker of the hybrid-bonding machines that fuse stacked chips into single packages, grew first-half bookings 116.5% and still lost its banks [6]. The bank UBS [cut Besi to Sell on October 7 with a EUR 159 target](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cut-besi-target-from-eur-370-to-eur-159-for-besi-stock/70312081), arguing hybrid bonding will be only 10% of 2028 tool demand against the 50% consensus implies [6][7].

The mechanism reaches Camtek directly: if bonding tools are 10% of 2028 demand rather than 50%, the packaging spend behind the 80% of Camtek's orders that are advanced packaging shrinks with it [7][4]. On October 16, research firm [SemiAnalysis](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/semianalysis) [counted 27 patent filings by ASML, the biggest maker of chipmaking equipment, pointing to a rival bonding tool](https://in.marketscreener.com/news/besi-shares-fall-on-report-asml-is-working-on-rival-hybrid-bonding-product-ce785cdadb8eff24); [ASML](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asml) declined to confirm, and Besi fell 3% [8].

Camtek's own bulls are trimming too: the broker Needham kept its Buy rating and cut the target from $190 to $170 [3]. China, about 45% of the business and expected by management to hold at least that strength in 2027, is also where it acknowledged local competitors [4].

*Chart: **The packaging-tool cohort sits 41 to 51 percent below its highs** Percentage below the 52-week high for Camtek, Nova and Besi in mid-October 2026.*

*Percent below 52-week high. Camtek: Nasdaq close, October 16, 2026; Besi: Lang & Schwarz euro quote, October 16, 2026; Nova: Nasdaq close, October 14, 2026, the latest on record beside October 16 bars. Sources: ad-hoc-news (Camtek, Besi), The Inference (Nova). [3][9][7]*

## Three dates that settle it

No filing yet says whether a 41% discount on that order book is the entry or the top of the packaging cycle. The first referee is Besi, which reports third-quarter results on October 22 into EUR 270.56 million of consensus revenue [6].

Nova, Camtek's Israeli neighbor in measurement tools, [follows on November 5 with the earnings-conversion test](https://theinference.org/article/nova-reports-november-5-into-a-booked-ai-packaging-boom-earnings-must-outgrow-the-share-count) [9]. Camtek's own results follow, November 17 on one calendar, when the guided jump has to arrive as reported revenue [1][2]. At 208 times trailing earnings, buyers are paying as if this cycle peaks in 2027; the $800 million order book, taken for delivery into 2027, is the evidence against [3][1].

## Takeaway

Camtek has booked more than $800 million of orders but not yet reported the growth; at 208 times trailing earnings and 41% below its high, Besi's October 22 report is the first referee of the discount.

## Sources

1. [Camtek Ltd. press release via PR Newswire (Yahoo Finance), Camtek pre-announces record Q3 revenues above guidance; provides record Q4 guidance and initial revenue outlook for 2027, 14 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/camtek-pre-announces-record-q3-130000907.html)
2. [ad-hoc-news.de, Camtek stock falls 4.94 percent on Nasdaq to EUR 121.18, 14 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/camtek-stock-falls-4-94-percent-on-nasdaq-to-eur-121-18/70325948)
3. [ad-hoc-news.de, Camtek stock falls 3.28 percent on Nasdaq, 41.17 percent below its 52-week high, 16 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/camtek-stock-falls-3-28-percent-on-nasdaq-41-17-percent-below-its-52-week-high/70341348)
4. [MarketBeat, Camtek Targets $1.2B Revenue as AI Packaging Demand Accelerates, 14 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/event-camtek-targets-12b-revenue-as-ai-packaging-demand-accelerates-2026-10-14/)
5. [Camtek quarterly figures from its SEC filings (company_series), retrieved 18 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001109138)
6. [ad-hoc-news.de, UBS cut Besi target from EUR 370 to EUR 159 for Besi stock, 13 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cut-besi-target-from-eur-370-to-eur-159-for-besi-stock/70312081)
7. [ad-hoc-news.de, Besi announced repurchases: Besi stock sits 50.77 percent below its high, 16 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/besi-announced-repurchases-besi-stock-sits-50-77-percent-below-its-high/70337487)
8. [Reuters via MarketScreener, Besi shares fall on report ASML is working on rival hybrid bonding product, 16 October 2026](https://in.marketscreener.com/news/besi-shares-fall-on-report-asml-is-working-on-rival-hybrid-bonding-product-ce785cdadb8eff24)
9. [The Inference, Nova reports November 5 into a booked AI packaging boom; earnings must outgrow the share count, 16 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/nova-reports-november-5-into-a-booked-ai-packaging-boom-earnings-must-outgrow-the-share-count)
10. [Camtek, annual figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 18 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001109138)


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Camtek set a $1.2 billion revenue target, then fell 41% from its high; Besi's October 22 report is the test — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/camtek-set-a-1-2-billion-revenue-target-then-fell-41-from-its-high-besi-s-october-22-report-is-the-test