--- title: "CenterPoint's $70.7 billion capital plan hangs on 12 GW Texas froze until a December audit" description: "The utility told investors 12 GW of large-load demand will energize on its Houston grid by 2030 and lifted its ten-year capital plan to $70.7 billion. AEP's 10-Q, filed a day later, shows ERCOT has paused the review that decides whether any of it connects." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-04T14:07:24.130Z modified: 2026-11-04T14:07:24.130Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/centerpoint-s-70-7-billion-capital-plan-hangs-on-12-gw-texas-froze-until-a-december-audit language: en keywords: "Power, Data Centers, Texas, Utilities, Capital Plans" --- # CenterPoint's $70.7 billion capital plan hangs on 12 GW Texas froze until a December audit > The utility told investors 12 GW of large-load demand will energize on its Houston grid by 2030 and lifted its ten-year capital plan to $70.7 billion. AEP's 10-Q, filed a day later, shows ERCOT has paused the review that decides whether any of it connects. [CenterPoint](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/centerpoint-energy)'s newly raised $70.7 billion capital plan rests on demand Texas has ordered verified and nobody has checked yet [2]. [Its third-quarter investor update, filed October 27](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1130310/000110465926118963/tm2628051d1_ex99-2.htm), expects about 12 GW of new large load energizing on its Houston Electric grid by 2030, against a system peak of 21 GW today, a jump of more than 55% [1]. A day later, [American Electric Power](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/american-electric-power), another utility that wires parts of Texas, [described the same queue from the other side](https://theinference.org/article/aep-signs-google-and-softbank-to-pay-for-its-grid-but-only-35-of-84-gigawatts-have-firm-contracts) in [its quarterly filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4904/000000490426000072/aep-20260930.htm). Governor Greg Abbott ordered every Batch Zero load verified and every data-center project above 25 MW audited, and ERCOT, the grid operator for most of Texas, has paused the classification and study work that decides who connects [2]. The spending is committed before anyone has confirmed the megawatts. *Chart: **CenterPoint's ramp to 12 GW clears only if ERCOT's audit keeps the queue standing** Column chart of CenterPoint's expected cumulative Batch Zero large-load energization on Houston Electric: about 3 GW in 2027, 8 GW in 2028, 11 GW in 2029 and 12 GW in 2030.* *CenterPoint forecast of October 27, 2026; figures are guidance, not reported energization. Source: investor update, slide 12. [1]* ## Only part of the queue even qualifies Batch Zero is the one-time process ERCOT set up to review large-load interconnection requests, primarily loads of 75 MW or greater, ahead of a recurring batch framework [2]. It splits requests into two categories, and the split decides timing. Base load is capacity ERCOT counts on for planning; the amount included is set in a determination expected in December 2026 [1]. Studied load is the slower path: further study, allocations in April 2027 that can come in below what a project asked for, and reclassification into the category can delay a project's energization [1]. [CenterPoint sorted its own 17 GW of submissions ahead of ERCOT's ruling](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/centerpoint-expands-10-capital-plan-131949941.html) [3], and its base-load bar already requires completed studies plus a security deposit covering the interconnection [4]. About 10 GW meets that bar; 5 GW qualifies for neither category [1]. The slides never mention the pause; their endnotes concede that actual customer demand may run below the load interconnected [1]. *Chart: **Ten of CenterPoint's 17 submitted gigawatts meet its base-load bar** Bar chart of CenterPoint's 17 GW of Batch Zero submissions: about 10 GW meets the base-load bar, 5 GW qualifies for neither category.* *CenterPoint's own sorting of its Batch Zero submissions ahead of ERCOT's determination; the remainder sits between the two. Sources: CenterPoint investor update; Utility Dive; Colocation Scout. [1][3][4]* ## The audit now sets the schedule [ERCOT's July operations report](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/13/texas-orders-data-center-audit-as-grid-requests-reach-474-gigawatts/) shows what the state is checking: of the large loads approved to energize, under half their approved capacity showed up at the month's peak [5]. New data-center halls fill slowly [5], so that gap is timing as much as intent, but it is measurable and Texas is measuring it. Every Batch Zero developer must answer a formal information request within ten business days, notarized, on pain of exclusion from the process, and ERCOT files its verification and community-impact reports with the state commission on December 10 [5]. [Abbott ordered the freeze in August](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2026/08/03/558529/gov-greg-abbott-pauses-new-data-centers-until-ercot-puct-audit-energy-water-usage/), with about 474 GW of connection requests pending, roughly 90% of them data centers [6]. Until verification finishes, no large load in the queue will be authorized to energize [2]. ## The money is posted, and ratepayers hold the other side Standing in this queue now costs real money. AEP Texas received about $2 billion of financial security from developers behind 45 GW of requests [2]. A state rule adopted in September requires $50,000 per MW before a project even enters a study, under a law written to reduce stranded infrastructure costs [2]. If the load survives the audit, CenterPoint's shareholders own the growth; if it does not, Houston ratepayers still own the wires. Indiana, which CenterPoint also serves, previews the politics: the Hoosier Environmental Council [told the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission](https://tac-nrg.com/news/2026-10-29/centerpoints-1-2-billion-capex-plan-hides-an-indiana-ratepayer-fight) that a roughly 700 MW data-center deal there sends the economic benefit out of state while Hoosiers keep the pollution and the grid costs [7]. ## December's survival rate is what the plan is worth If most of the queue survives, Texas has to find that much new supply; if it shrinks, the wires already in the plan still have to be paid for by someone [5]. CenterPoint is already preparing a Batch One submission for next year [3]. Watch ERCOT's base-load determination, then the state commission's December 17 meeting, where the audit reports are discussed [5]. The survival rate, how many requested megawatts are still standing, is the number that reprices the plan and decides when Houston's queued load can plug in. ## Takeaway CenterPoint lifted its ten-year plan to $70.7 billion on 12 GW of Houston-area load that ERCOT has paused mid-verification; December's determination, not the investor slides, sets what the plan is worth. ## Sources 1. [CenterPoint Energy, Third Quarter 2026 Investor Update, Exhibit 99.2 to Form 8-K, 27 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1130310/000110465926118963/tm2628051d1_ex99-2.htm) 2. [American Electric Power, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4904/000000490426000072/aep-20260930.htm) 3. [Utility Dive, republished by Yahoo Finance, "CenterPoint expands 10-year capital plan by $4B to handle load growth", 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/centerpoint-expands-10-capital-plan-131949941.html) 4. [Colocation Scout, "CenterPoint Houston: about 12 GW of ERCOT Batch Zero large load by 2030", 29 October 2026, collected 4 November 2026](https://colocationscout.com/news-centerpoint-houston-batch-zero-12gw-large-load-2030.html) 5. [Forbes, "Texas Orders Data Center Audit As Grid Requests Reach 474 Gigawatts", 13 October 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/13/texas-orders-data-center-audit-as-grid-requests-reach-474-gigawatts/) 6. [Houston Public Media, "Gov. Greg Abbott pauses new data centers until ERCOT, PUCT audit energy, water usage", 3 August 2026](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2026/08/03/558529/gov-greg-abbott-pauses-new-data-centers-until-ercot-puct-audit-energy-water-usage/) 7. [Tactical Energy Group, "CenterPoint's $1.2 Billion Capex Plan Hides an Indiana Ratepayer Fight", 29 October 2026](https://tac-nrg.com/news/2026-10-29/centerpoints-1-2-billion-capex-plan-hides-an-indiana-ratepayer-fight) --- CenterPoint's $70.7 billion capital plan hangs on 12 GW Texas froze until a December audit — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/centerpoint-s-70-7-billion-capital-plan-hangs-on-12-gw-texas-froze-until-a-december-audit