---
title: "Cerebras faces its November unlock down 72% with a $25.4 billion backlog resting mostly on OpenAI"
description: "Cerebras Systems (Nasdaq: CBRS) closed October 30 at $109.18, about 72% below its post-IPO high. The final lockup tranches open November 9 and 10 and earnings land November 12, over a $25.4 billion backlog that is mostly one OpenAI contract."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-11-02T14:13:19.872Z
modified: 2026-11-02T14:13:19.872Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cerebras-faces-its-november-unlock-down-72-with-a-25-4-billion-backlog-resting-mostly-on-openai
language: en
keywords: "Cerebras, IPO, Lockup Expiry, Short Sellers, OpenAI, Chipmakers"
---

# Cerebras faces its November unlock down 72% with a $25.4 billion backlog resting mostly on OpenAI

> Cerebras Systems (Nasdaq: CBRS) closed October 30 at $109.18, about 72% below its post-IPO high. The final lockup tranches open November 9 and 10 and earnings land November 12, over a $25.4 billion backlog that is mostly one OpenAI contract.

[Cerebras Systems](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cerebras-systems) (Nasdaq: CBRS), which fuses compute and memory onto a single silicon wafer into one chip roughly 50 times the size of a GPU [3], [priced the biggest AI IPO of the year at $185 a share on May 14](https://startupfortune.com/cerebras-stock-has-fallen-39-from-its-peak-as-lockup-and-earnings-collide/), raised $5.55 billion and closed its first day at $311.07 [1].

The stock later peaked at $386.34; on October 30 it closed at $109.18, roughly 72% below that high and back under its offer price [1]. The next two events are already dated: the staggered 180-day lockup releases its final tranches around November 9 and 10, and third-quarter results land after the close on November 12 [1][3].

## Insiders sold before the door opened

Chief Technology Officer [Sean Lie](https://theinference.org/markets/people/sean-lie) [sold more than 710,000 shares for about $147.6 million on August 20](https://theinference.org/article/cerebras-cto-sells-192-million-ahead-of-looming-lockup-expiry) under a pre-set 10b5-1 trading plan, with further sales through October [1]. When a lockup tranche expired on September 30, roughly 19.4 million shares became sellable and two officers [filed notices covering $84.3 million of stock](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/01/cerebras-slipped-below-its-ipo-price-just-as-insiders-filed-to-sell/): Chief Operating Officer [Dhiraj Mallick](https://theinference.org/markets/people/dhiraj-mallick) and finance chief Robert Komin Jr. [2]

Another 19.4 million shares turned eligible the day the short seller struck [4]. A Form 144 records an intent to sell; only a later Form 4 confirms an executed sale, and those filings will show what actually changed hands [2].

## The quarter underneath the slide

Second-quarter revenue rose 74% to $180.1 million, but gross profit fell 20% to $25.6 million, stock compensation hit $377 million and the net loss reached $450.5 million [1]. Capital spending ran to $416.9 million in the quarter and $548.9 million across the first half, mostly cloud systems [5][3]. Gross margin, up from 11.7% in fiscal 2022 to 42.3% in fiscal 2024, slipped to 39.0% in fiscal 2025 [6].

*Chart: **Capex now outruns revenue while gross profit collapses** Line chart of Cerebras quarterly revenue, gross profit and capex from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, showing capex overtaking revenue while gross profit collapses*

*Quarterly revenue, gross profit and capital expenditure in US$ millions from Cerebras's SEC filings; Q3 2025 not reported. [5]*

## Two camps and no verdict

Culper Research, a short seller that disclosed its position on October 28, claims the wafer-scale processors fail after 18 to 30 months in service, run continuous dummy operations to keep from cooling, and use a connector material developed in the 1980s [4][7]. Its sharpest point comes from Cerebras's own paperwork: [draft IPO filings through December 2025 gave the systems useful lives of 1.5 to 3 years](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cerebras-sinks-10-short-seller-173139342.html); four months later the range was 3 to 5 years, with no explanation [6]. Longer lives mean lower depreciation and fatter margins [6].

Three law firms, Levi & Korsinsky, Bronstein Gewirtz & Grossman and Johnson Fistel, have announced securities investigations; none is a finding [7]. Chief Executive Andrew Feldman's answer so far is [millions of production hours](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-a-durability-claim-a-wave-of-law-firm-notices-and-the-margin-question-behind-both/70437505), cited on August 12 [7]. The other side is buying.

[ARK Invest](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ark-invest), the fund group run by [Cathie Wood](https://theinference.org/markets/people/cathie-wood), bought 45,729 shares after the report surfaced [8]. Eleven analysts carry a consensus strong-buy rating with an average target near $283 [1]. [An Oracle Cloud channel lifted the stock 10%](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-lands-oracle-cloud-channel-but-the-revenue-math-stays-blank/70425245); it goes live in 2027 with no disclosed contract value, on a shelf shared with [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia), Google's TPU AI chips and [SambaNova](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sambanova) [9].

## What settles it on November 12

The bull case is $25.4 billion of contracted but unrecognized revenue, and most of it is one contract: [a December 2025 master agreement](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-confronts-the-gap-between-a-big-chip-and-a-big-bill/70435978) under which [OpenAI committed to buy 750 megawatts of inference capacity](https://theinference.org/article/cerebras-rallied-9-on-altman-s-praise-but-openai-s-20-billion-revenue-gap-sets-a-november-test), worth more than $20 billion [1]. About 22% of the backlog is expected to be recognized in the first 24 months from June 30 [1].

Whoever catches November's unlocked shares is underwriting that promise. The November 12 print tests it against guidance of $214 to $216 million in third-quarter core revenue [2], while the forecast of core gross margin above 60% for 2027 rests on the very depreciation assumption Culper attacked [7].

## Takeaway

The final lockup tranches open November 9 and 10 and earnings land November 12: buyers of the unlocked shares are underwriting a $25.4 billion backlog that is mostly one OpenAI contract and a 2027 margin forecast resting on the depreciation assumption a short seller attacked.

## Sources

1. [Startup Fortune, "Cerebras stock has fallen 39% from its peak as lockup and earnings collide", 2 November 2026](https://startupfortune.com/cerebras-stock-has-fallen-39-from-its-peak-as-lockup-and-earnings-collide/)
2. [24/7 Wall St, "Cerebras Slipped Below Its IPO Price Just as Insiders Filed to Sell", 1 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/01/cerebras-slipped-below-its-ipo-price-just-as-insiders-filed-to-sell/)
3. [ad-hoc-news, "Cerebras Confronts the Gap Between a Big Chip and a Big Bill", 30 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-confronts-the-gap-between-a-big-chip-and-a-big-bill/70435978)
4. [Yahoo Finance (GuruFocus), "Cerebras Stock Falls as Short Seller Questions Chip Lifespan", 28 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cerebras-stock-falls-short-seller-201957691.html)
5. [Cerebras Systems quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 2 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002021728)
6. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Cerebras Sinks 10% as Short Seller Culper Claims Its Wafers Break Down After Just ~2 Years", 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cerebras-sinks-10-short-seller-173139342.html)
7. [ad-hoc-news, "Cerebras: A Durability Claim, a Wave of Law Firm Notices, and the Margin Question Behind Both", 31 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-a-durability-claim-a-wave-of-law-firm-notices-and-the-margin-question-behind-both/70437505)
8. [ad-hoc-news, "Cerebras Faces Two Kinds of Scrutiny, and Neither Has Produced a Verdict", 30 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-faces-two-kinds-of-scrutiny-and-neither-has-produced-a-verdict/70435237)
9. [ad-hoc-news, "Cerebras Lands Oracle Cloud Channel, but the Revenue Math Stays Blank", 28 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/cerebras-lands-oracle-cloud-channel-but-the-revenue-math-stays-blank/70425245)


---

Cerebras faces its November unlock down 72% with a $25.4 billion backlog resting mostly on OpenAI — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cerebras-faces-its-november-unlock-down-72-with-a-25-4-billion-backlog-resting-mostly-on-openai