---
title: "Citi says $11, UBS says $6 on Fluence: the fault is in delayed Houston plants, not Europe"
description: "Fluence just booked Europe's marquee storage work in Germany and Poland, but two guidance cuts in six weeks, a forecast $200 million loss and a securities suit have split Wall Street in two."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-10-28T13:09:13.538Z
modified: 2026-10-28T13:09:13.538Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/citi-says-11-ubs-says-6-on-fluence-the-fault-is-in-delayed-houston-plants-not-europe
language: en
keywords: "Fluence Energy, Energy Storage, Analyst Calls, Guidance, Batteries, Stock Moves"
---

# Citi says $11, UBS says $6 on Fluence: the fault is in delayed Houston plants, not Europe

> Fluence just booked Europe's marquee storage work in Germany and Poland, but two guidance cuts in six weeks, a forecast $200 million loss and a securities suit have split Wall Street in two.

## Poland breaks ground, Wall Street cuts in half

PGE, Poland's state power group, said on October 23 that construction had begun on Gryfino, a 400 megawatt, 800 megawatt-hour battery plant in Nowy Czarnów, with [Fluence Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/fluence-energy) as technology supplier [1]. Fluence, the grid-storage integrator that AES and Siemens founded and remain tied to through a tax agreement, has become the listed proxy for Europe's storage boom [2].

Its shares gained 8.6 percent in German trading on October 28, a move the outlet reporting it declines to tie to the ground-breaking [3]. The same week, UBS analyst Jon Windham [halved his target to $6 from $12](https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Fluence+Energy+Inc.+%28FLNC%29+PT+Lowered+to+%246+at+UBS/27229863.html), kept Neutral, folded in roughly $190 million of extra costs from delayed contract plants in Houston, and trimmed his fiscal 2027 and 2028 estimates as well [4][5][6].

## Two guidance cuts in six weeks

On September 16, Fluence [cut fiscal 2026 guidance](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/fluence-energy-announces-revised-guidance-fiscal-year-2026-management-host-conference), for the year ended September 30, to about $2.4 billion of revenue from a $3.0 billion midpoint, and to an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $200 million from about $10 million, blaming the ramp at plants run by its Houston contract manufacturer [2].

The first cut came on August 5: a June quarter of $649.8 million in revenue and 5.9 percent adjusted gross margin, down from 15.4 percent, with $400 million of deliveries pushed into fiscal 2027 [7][8]. Reported gross margin has since printed 4.9 and 5.1 percent in two of the last three quarters, against 9.9 to 17.2 percent across the six before [9].

*Chart: **Seven quarters above 9.9 percent, then 4.9 and 5.1 in two of the last three** Fluence quarterly gross margin line chart showing margins between 4.9 and 17.2 percent over ten quarters*

*Reported gross margin, percent of revenue, calendar quarters. Fluence's fiscal year ends September 30; the last bar is the June 2026 quarter. Source: Fluence quarterly SEC filings. [9]*

## Two banks, two prices

[Citi cut its target to $11 from $20](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/citigroup-cuts-fluence-energy-stock-target-from-usd-20-00-to-usd-11-00/70406067) in a October 21 note and kept Buy; UBS's $6 is the other pole [8][3][4]. Shares closed at $6.01 on October 27, 82 percent below the 52-week high of $33.51, with 23.6 percent of the float sold short [10][8].

[Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) went Neutral at $9 and Baird Underperform at $3 the day after the September cut, with Goldman's Brian Lee conceding his call to stick with the stock "has been wrong" [10]. Susquehanna at $13, [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) at $9 and [Truist](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/truist-financial) at $8 have all lowered targets since [11].

*Chart: **Seven banks, seven cuts: Fluence targets now run $3 to $13** Bar chart of seven banks' Fluence price targets from $3 to $13, with Citi and UBS highlighted*

*Published price targets set after the September 16, 2026, guidance cut, in dollars per share. Citi kept Buy, UBS and Goldman kept or went Neutral, Baird went Underperform. Sources: dated notes as cited. [3][4][8][10][11]*

## The orders are signed, the shipping is not

[Vattenfall's Brunsbüttel award](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/vattenfall-awards-1-gwh-brunsb-ttel-battery-storage-project-to-fluence-1036624278), 254 megawatts and more than 1,000 megawatt-hours on the site of a retired nuclear plant, is the Swedish utility's largest battery project and nearly doubles its storage fleet; construction starts in 2027, commissioning is set for end-2028 [11]. Germany added 6.6 gigawatt-hours of storage in 2025 [11]. Both flagship projects earn their revenue in 2027 and 2028 [11].

In between sits [a securities class action filed on September 28](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/whats-next-for-fluence-energy-inc-shareholders-after-34-63-stock-drop-glancy-prongay-wolke--rotter-llp-explains-securities-fraud-class-action-lead-plaintiff-deadline-302914376.html) in federal court in Manhattan, [alleging, untested, that Fluence hid that its new factories could not produce what guidance assumed](https://theinference.org/article/fluence-s-ai-power-bet-faces-a-securities-fraud-suit-after-three-guidance-breaks-and-a-73-fall); the lead-plaintiff deadline is November 30 [7][3]. Fluence says its contract manufacturer's fixes have already lifted daily production [2].

## What settles it

Fiscal 2026 results land within weeks, on last year's November 25 calendar, and CFO [Ahmed Pasha](https://theinference.org/markets/people/ahmed-pasha) has staked fiscal 2027 on neutral-to-positive operating cash flow without new capital [2]. Europe is ordering batteries faster than Houston can ship them, and the margin line in that report will price both theses.

## Takeaway

Seven banks have cut Fluence targets to anywhere from $3 to $13 since the September 16 guidance break, and the stock at $6.01 sits between UBS's bear case and Citi's bull case; fiscal 2026 results, due around November 25, price which half is right.

## Sources

1. [bne IntelliNews via MSN, "PGE starts construction of one of Poland's biggest energy storage facilities", 27 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/pge-starts-construction-of-one-of-polands-biggest-energy-storage-facilities/ar-AA2g9GIa)
2. [Fluence Energy press release via Nasdaq, "Fluence Energy Announces Revised Guidance for Fiscal Year 2026", 16 September 2026](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/fluence-energy-announces-revised-guidance-fiscal-year-2026-management-host-conference)
3. [Kapitalmarktexperten, "Fluence Energy Aktie: Smartstack-Baustart in Polen!", 28 October 2026](https://www.kapitalmarktexperten.de/fluence-energy-aktie-smartstack-baustart-in-polen/)
4. [StreetInsider, "Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC) PT Lowered to $6 at UBS", 26 October 2026](https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Fluence+Energy+Inc.+%28FLNC%29+PT+Lowered+to+%246+at+UBS/27229863.html)
5. [Ad Hoc News, "Fluence Energy's Houston Ramp-Up Stumble Prompts UBS to Halve Its Target, and Trim 2027-28 Too", 27 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/fluence-energy-s-houston-ramp-up-stumble-prompts-ubs-to-halve-its-target-and-trim-2027-28-too/70420621)
6. [Börse-Express, "Fluence Energy Aktie: Houston-Hürde?", 28 October 2026](https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/fluence-energy-aktie-houston-huerde-956646)
7. [Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter via PR Newswire, Fluence class action lead-plaintiff notice, 20 October 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/whats-next-for-fluence-energy-inc-shareholders-after-34-63-stock-drop-glancy-prongay-wolke--rotter-llp-explains-securities-fraud-class-action-lead-plaintiff-deadline-302914376.html)
8. [Ad Hoc News, "Citigroup cuts Fluence Energy stock target from USD 20.00 to USD 11.00", 24 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/citigroup-cuts-fluence-energy-stock-target-from-usd-20-00-to-usd-11-00/70406067)
9. [Fluence Energy, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 28 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001868941)
10. [Seeking Alpha, "Fluence Energy falls to nearly one-year low after cutting full-year forecast; Goldman downgrades", 17 September 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4643945-fluence-energy-falls-to-nearly-one-year-low-after-cutting-full-year-forecast-goldman-downgrades)
11. [Markets Insider via GlobeNewswire, "Vattenfall Awards 1 GWh Brunsbüttel Battery Storage Project to Fluence", 14 October 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/vattenfall-awards-1-gwh-brunsb-ttel-battery-storage-project-to-fluence-1036624278)


---

Citi says $11, UBS says $6 on Fluence: the fault is in delayed Houston plants, not Europe — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/citi-says-11-ubs-says-6-on-fluence-the-fault-is-in-delayed-houston-plants-not-europe