---
title: "Coinbase's desk prices an 80% December hike while liquidity sits $13 billion below May, with Q3 due October 29"
description: "Coinbase's desk prices an 80% December rate hike while its own order book and liquidity gauges say crypto-native buyers have left. The stock reports Q3 on October 29, with 64% of bitcoin longs entered above spot."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-10-25T15:14:19.684Z
modified: 2026-10-25T15:14:19.684Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-reports-q3-on-october-29-with-its-desk-pricing-an-80-december-hike-and-liquidity-down-13-billion
language: en
keywords: "Coinbase, Bitcoin, Federal Reserve, Crypto, Earnings Preview"
---

# Coinbase's desk prices an 80% December hike while liquidity sits $13 billion below May, with Q3 due October 29

> Coinbase's desk prices an 80% December rate hike while its own order book and liquidity gauges say crypto-native buyers have left. The stock reports Q3 on October 29, with 64% of bitcoin longs entered above spot.

[Coinbase](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coinbase)'s own desk prices an 80% chance the Fed hikes in December, and the pool of crypto-native money behind Coinbase's revenue is nearly $13 billion smaller than it was at the May peak [1]. That combination, not the wire headlines about a $75,000 bitcoin, is what should drive how you hold the stock into the Fed's October 27 to 28 decision and the company's Q3 print on October 29 [1][5].

## The desk's gauges say the buyers have left

[In its weekly market review](https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-coinbase-warns-btc-could-fall-to-75k-amid-macro-risks/), Coinbase's senior quantitative strategist Colin Basco, who writes the review, flags sticky inflation, an 80% December hike probability, and $635 million of US spot ETF outflows on October 23, among the largest single-day outflows of the second half [1]. The two gauges that matter for Coinbase's own business are Coinbase-specific.

The Coinbase premium, what US buyers pay relative to other venues, has stayed negative all October, and stablecoin supply, the desk's measure of crypto liquidity, sits nearly $13 billion below its May peak [1]. US retail has yet to come back in large numbers, per Coinbase's desk, and the float behind trading revenue is shrinking [1].

## The market is levered into the decision

Positioning makes that fragile. The largest cluster of net long bitcoin sits at an average entry of $81,993, with bitcoin at $80,595, and [64% of net long notional was entered above spot](https://u.today/coinbase-warns-of-bitcoin-long-liquidation-risks) [2]. Options skew shows the stress: 25-delta skew runs at 11.3% for one day, 10.5% for one week and 10.8% for one month, against 3.9% at one year [2]. On those numbers, institutions are paying up for short-dated puts, and the near-flat one-year skew suggests they treat the fear as temporary rather than structural [2].

If the $80,000 to $82,000 zone fails, Coinbase's next support sits at $73,000 to $75,000, with forced liquidation of leveraged longs stacked behind it [1][2].

*Chart: **Downside protection is priced in the front of the bitcoin options curve** Bar chart of bitcoin 25-delta put skew across four option tenors, all above zero, front-end tenors near 11% versus 3.9% at one year.*

*Bitcoin 25-delta skew by option tenor, in percentage points, per Coinbase Markets data published October 24, 2026. Higher skew means puts carry richer implied volatility than calls. [2]*

## Meanwhile, the CEO sells a different story

[Brian Armstrong](https://theinference.org/markets/people/brian-armstrong) pitches stablecoins powering as much as $5 trillion in commerce by 2030 [3]. [Our October 21 piece](https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-says-891-billion-of-stablecoins-moved-in-q3-on-a-flat-301-billion-float-as-a-senate-clause-looms) covered the volume side of that story: $891 billion of stablecoins moved in Q3 on a flat $301 billion float, with a Senate clause looming [1]. What is new since is the desk's own read on the float: the liquidity gauge down $13 billion from May, the negative Coinbase premium, and the 80% December hike price [1].

The market is not buying the $5 trillion story at price: COIN closed October 23 at $165.71, below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, with the Irish Central Bank's $3.6 million compliance fine in the news flow [3]. Analysts expect a Q3 loss of about $0.20 per share on $1.77 billion of revenue, after misses in the prior three quarters, and [Bank of America lifted its target to $203 ahead of the report](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/10/317714-coinbase-coin-and-robinhood-hood-price-targets-updated-by-bank-of-america-etoro-slashed-ahead-of-q3-earnings/) [5]. The stock has lost roughly half its value over 12 months [5].

And the marginal crypto dollar is not waiting for the Fed. Of [$1.76 billion in crypto venture funding announced this week](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/10/24/crypto-venture-capital-funding-tenstorrent/), 85% was [Tenstorrent](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tenstorrent)'s $1.5 billion AI-chip round, with [Tether](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tether) backing it [4]. Capital that once chased crypto assets now chases AI compute and AI-agent payment infrastructure [4].

## The trade through Wednesday

Hold Coinbase on the desk's gauges, not the CEO's $5 trillion story [1][2]. The bearish path confirms if the Fed signals the December hike and the $80,000 to $82,000 support breaks, which forces those longs above spot to unwind into a market with $13 billion less liquidity to absorb them [1][2]. The bullish path confirms if the Fed holds and the Coinbase premium turns positive again, the exchange's own order book saying US buyers are back [1][2]. One nuance the wires missed: [despite the outflow days](https://financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-flows-this-week-bitcoin-funds-net-301-million-despite-636-million-thursday-exit-where-ether-xrp-and-solana-landed/), [bitcoin ETFs still ended the week about $301 million net positive](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-ethereum-etf-flows-october-23-weekly-preliminary/), so ETF demand is weaker, not absent [8][9].

## Takeaway

Hold Coinbase on its desk's gauges, not the CEO's $5 trillion stablecoin story: liquidity is down $13 billion from May, and the bullish path needs the Fed to hold in December and the Coinbase premium to turn positive.

## Sources

1. [AMBCrypto, Bitcoin: Why Coinbase warns BTC could fall to $75K amid macro risks, 25 October 2026](https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-coinbase-warns-btc-could-fall-to-75k-amid-macro-risks/)
2. [U.Today, Coinbase Warns of Bitcoin Long Liquidation Risks, 24 October 2026](https://u.today/coinbase-warns-of-bitcoin-long-liquidation-risks)
3. [Traders Union, Coinbase falls 2.05% today to $165.71; Brian Armstrong comments focus on future revenue potential, 24 October 2026](https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/3947597-coinbase-falls-2-05percent-today-to/)
4. [The Cryptonomist, AI firm Tenstorrent's $1.5B round made up 85.1% of crypto venture capital funding, 24 October 2026](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/10/24/crypto-venture-capital-funding-tenstorrent/)
5. [Crowdfund Insider, Coinbase ($COIN) and Robinhood ($HOOD) price targets updated by Bank of America ahead of Q3 earnings, 12 October 2026](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/10/317714-coinbase-coin-and-robinhood-hood-price-targets-updated-by-bank-of-america-etoro-slashed-ahead-of-q3-earnings/)
8. [NewsBTC, Bitcoin ETF week stays positive after nearly $774 million in late outflows, 25 October 2026](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-ethereum-etf-flows-october-23-weekly-preliminary/)
9. [FinanceFeeds, Crypto ETF flows this week: Bitcoin funds net $301 million despite $636 million Thursday exit, 24 October 2026](https://financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-flows-this-week-bitcoin-funds-net-301-million-despite-636-million-thursday-exit-where-ether-xrp-and-solana-landed/)


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Coinbase's desk prices an 80% December hike while liquidity sits $13 billion below May, with Q3 due October 29 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-reports-q3-on-october-29-with-its-desk-pricing-an-80-december-hike-and-liquidity-down-13-billion