--- title: "Coinbase rose 9% as $20 billion left hacked Binance, and tonight's midterms test the bounce" description: "Goldman Sachs named Coinbase, Robinhood and BitGo best-positioned to catch the $20 billion leaving Binance after the record hack, then called the event a net negative for the group. Tonight's midterms, where prediction markets make Democrats favorites for both chambers, test the 9% bounce within 24 hours." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-11-03T19:15:52.212Z modified: 2026-11-03T19:15:52.212Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-rose-9-as-20-billion-left-hacked-binance-and-tonight-s-midterms-test-the-bounce language: en keywords: "Coinbase, Crypto, Bitcoin, Elections, Goldman Sachs, Stablecoins" --- # Coinbase rose 9% as $20 billion left hacked Binance, and tonight's midterms test the bounce > Goldman Sachs named Coinbase, Robinhood and BitGo best-positioned to catch the $20 billion leaving Binance after the record hack, then called the event a net negative for the group. Tonight's midterms, where prediction markets make Democrats favorites for both chambers, test the 9% bounce within 24 hours. [Coinbase](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coinbase) rose as much as 9% on November 3 after [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) named the exchange, the broker [Robinhood](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/robinhood) and the custodian [BitGo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bitgo) "best-positioned" to catch customers fleeing [Binance](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/binance), which lost $6.3 billion to a hack on October 29 [1]. Nearly $20 billion, 14% of Binance's platform assets, has left since [1]. [The same note](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coinbase-rebounds-9-goldman-calls-161458974.html) cut the other way: Goldman called the event "a negative for our digital assets coverage," citing lower balances and thinner trading [1]. The bank that lifted the stock spent the same paragraph lowering the group's revenue base. ## The exodus is loose change next to Coinbase's base Even if every fleeing dollar landed at Coinbase, it would add less than a tenth to the $245.9 billion of customer assets the exchange held on June 30 [1]. The tape sides with the caution. [US bitcoin funds bled $1.04 billion across Friday and Monday](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etfs-lose-1-billion-151858654.html), and [BlackRock](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/blackrock)'s iShares Bitcoin Trust took $405 million of Monday's withdrawals, its worst day since June 26 [2][3]. Futures traders sold $2.7 billion net over seven sessions while spot buyers stayed in [2]. Coinbase's own quarterly revenue has roughly halved since late 2024, from $2.27 billion to $1.22 billion [4]. *Chart: **The $20 billion leaving Binance is a sliver of Coinbase's customer base** Bar chart comparing Coinbase customer assets of $245.9 billion against the $20 billion Binance exodus, $1.9 billion of midterm prediction-market wagers and $1.04 billion of bitcoin ETF outflows* *Dollars in billions. Coinbase customer assets as of June 30, 2026; Binance outflows and ETF net outflows since the October 29 hack; prediction-market volume as of the evening of November 2, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Variety. [1][2][5]* *Chart: **Coinbase quarterly revenue has roughly halved since late 2024** Line chart of Coinbase quarterly revenue from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026, falling from $2.27 billion to $1.22 billion* *Quarterly revenue in billions of dollars, Q4 2024 through Q3 2026, as reported in Coinbase's SEC filings. Source: Coinbase Global quarterly figures, retrieved November 3, 2026. [4]* ## Prediction markets lean toward the sweep crypto fears Polls close tonight with [nearly $1.9 billion wagered on the midterms](https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/midterm-elections-odds-prediction-spending-house-and-senate-1236938339/) at the prediction markets [Kalshi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/kalshi) and Polymarket [5]. Polymarket puts Democrats at 78% to win the Senate and 95% to flip the House; Kalshi reads 78% and 93.9% [5]. Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen says that sweep hands Senator Elizabeth Warren the Senate Banking Committee gavel and [stalls the Clarity Act, the market-structure bill whose Senate vote already failed 49-50 on September 15](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/next-weeks-midterm-elections-crypto), for two years [6]. [Prediction markets, crypto's own instruments](https://theinference.org/article/crypto-has-41-million-riding-on-ohio-the-week-citi-turned-on-coinbase-s-bank-rail), are pricing the outcome the industry spent $176 million across more than 100 races to avoid [6]. Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at the Hilbert Group, says a significant Democratic win "is not priced into the price of Bitcoin" [2]. The bulls' answer: Re7 Research calls the vote a possible clearing event, and Fidelity's bitcoin fund was the only one with Monday inflows [2][3]. ## Circle reads the stablecoin leg tomorrow Stablecoins are about a quarter of Coinbase's revenue: $307 million last quarter, earned on balances of USDC, the dollar token issued by [Circle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/circle) [1][7]. Coinbase [holds roughly 30% of all USDC in circulation](https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/30/coinbase-holds-30-of-all-usdc-does-that-make-usdc-safer-or-riskier-after-the-binance-hack/) [7]. [Circle reports third-quarter results on Wednesday morning](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/circle-to-announce-q3-2026-financial-results-on-november-4-2026-ce785ddedd8df127) [8]. The returns land tonight; Circle's balances land at 8 a.m [8]. ## Takeaway Goldman Sachs called Coinbase best-positioned to catch the $20 billion leaving hacked Binance, yet a net negative for the whole group, whose revenue base has already halved since late 2024; tonight's midterms, where prediction markets make Democrats heavy favorites for both chambers, test whether the 9% bounce survives a sweep that stalls the Clarity Act. ## Sources 1. [Yahoo Finance, Coinbase Rebounds 9% as Goldman Calls It "Best-Positioned" for the Binance Exodus, 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coinbase-rebounds-9-goldman-calls-161458974.html) 2. [Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin ETFs Lose $1 Billion as Midterms, Binance Hack Weigh on Sentiment, 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etfs-lose-1-billion-151858654.html) 3. [BeInCrypto, Is BlackRock Selling Bitcoin? What's Really Behind the $405 Million IBIT Outflow, 3 November 2026](https://beincrypto.com/is-blackrock-selling-bitcoin-ibit-outflow/) 4. [Coinbase Global, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 3 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001679788) 5. [Variety, Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races, 3 November 2026](https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/midterm-elections-odds-prediction-spending-house-and-senate-1236938339/) 6. [Bitcoin Magazine, Next Week's Midterms Could Stall the CLARITY Act and Test Crypto's Political Clout: TD Cowen, 27 October 2026](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/next-weeks-midterm-elections-crypto) 7. [24/7 Wall St, Coinbase Holds 30% of All USDC. Does That Make USDC Safer or Riskier After the Binance Hack?, 30 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/30/coinbase-holds-30-of-all-usdc-does-that-make-usdc-safer-or-riskier-after-the-binance-hack/) 8. [Business Wire via MarketScreener, Circle to Announce Q3 2026 Financial Results on November 4, 2026, 7 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/circle-to-announce-q3-2026-financial-results-on-november-4-2026-ce785ddedd8df127) --- Coinbase rose 9% as $20 billion left hacked Binance, and tonight's midterms test the bounce — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-rose-9-as-20-billion-left-hacked-binance-and-tonight-s-midterms-test-the-bounce