---
title: "Coinbase's $718.7 million profit includes $715 million of crypto gains; $120 and $240 targets are one bet"
description: "Coinbase holds 18,000 bitcoin of its own and booked $165 million of transaction revenue in October's first 25 days. The fight over the stock is a fight over one price, not over the exchange."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-11-03T16:18:23.456Z
modified: 2026-11-03T16:18:23.456Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-s-718-7-million-profit-includes-715-million-of-crypto-gains-120-and-240-targets-are-one-bet
language: en
keywords: "Coinbase, Crypto, Earnings, Bitcoin, Analyst Calls"
---

# Coinbase's $718.7 million profit includes $715 million of crypto gains; $120 and $240 targets are one bet

> Coinbase holds 18,000 bitcoin of its own and booked $165 million of transaction revenue in October's first 25 days. The fight over the stock is a fight over one price, not over the exchange.

[Coinbase](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coinbase)'s own bitcoin hoard has passed 18,000 coins, chief executive [Brian Armstrong](https://theinference.org/markets/people/brian-armstrong) confirmed on the October 29 earnings call [1]. The number landed in the middle of a Wall Street fight: [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) [cut the stock to Underweight with a $120 target on November 2](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/coinbase-stock-morgan-stanley-downgrade.html), the same day BTIG kept a $240 Buy [2][3]. Both camps are betting on the same price. Third-quarter profit was mostly the mark, the accounting gain from revaluing that pile each quarter [4], and the exchange underneath it is running no slower than last quarter.

## October's ledger contradicts the volume-collapse story

Morgan Stanley's downgrade counts fourth-quarter transaction revenue of about $165 million through October 25, tracking to $607 million, 11% under the street [2]. Third-quarter transaction revenue was $450 million from consumers and $92 million from institutions [1].

Together, about $542 million, or about $5.9 million a day across the 92-day quarter [1]; October's first 25 days ran about $6.6 million a day [2]. What fell in October is the price of what customers trade, not their willingness to trade it. Bernstein's full-year loss estimate of $2.60 a share gives up on bullish prices, not on volume [5].

## The treasury turns reported profit into a coin mark

The headline rested on one line: [net income of $718.7 million included $715.0 million of net gains on crypto assets held for investment](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261028437153/en/Coinbase-Q3-2026-Earnings-Show-All-time-high-Coinbase-One-Subscribers-and-Prediction-Markets-Surpassing-%24200-Million-in-Annualized-Revenue) [4]. Strip those gains out and adjusted net income was $78 million [4]. The September 30 balance sheet carries 17,954 coins at about $1.50 billion, against a cost basis of $1.26 billion [1]. Bitcoin near $77,600 on November 2 has taken roughly $105 million off that since quarter-end [5]. Armstrong's prearranged selling window, which [we sized last week](https://theinference.org/article/armstrong-files-to-sell-1-31-billion-of-coinbase-after-a-719-million-profit-that-is-mostly-a-crypto-mark), opens November 16 [5].

*Chart: **Bitcoin's slide has already taken about $105 million off the quarter-end mark** Column chart of the mark on Coinbase's 17,954 coins: cost basis of $1.26 billion, $1.50 billion at September 30, and about $1.40 billion at November 2*

*The mark on the 17,954 coins held for investment at September 30, against their $1.26 billion cost basis; the November 2 mark applies bitcoin near $77,600 and is an estimate. $ billions. Sources: Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings release, TheStreet. [1][4][5]*

*Chart: **Reported profit swings with the bitcoin mark while the operating line slides with the cycle** Line chart of Coinbase quarterly net income and adjusted EBITDA from Q3 2023 to Q3 2026, in millions of dollars*

*Quarterly, $ millions, from the reconciliation table in Coinbase's Q3 2026 earnings release. Q3 2026 was the 15th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. [4]*

## The bulls expect the hack to hand over Binance's customers

The [Binance](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/binance) breach touched about $6.3 billion, and [nearly $20 billion has left the exchange since](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/goldman-sachs-names-stock-winners-123713018.html), though withdrawals resumed on November 1 and Binance has committed to covering all losses [6]. [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) calls the event a net negative for crypto stocks but names Coinbase, with [BitGo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bitgo) and [Robinhood](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/robinhood), best-positioned for migrating assets [6].

BTIG's $240 Buy rests on the same migration [3], and [Cathie Wood](https://theinference.org/markets/people/cathie-wood)'s [ARK Invest](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ark-invest) [bought about $9 million of the stock into the drop](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:51dc1194a094b:0-ark-buys-17m-in-coinbase-circle-shares-while-trimming-bullish/) [7]. Coinbase's quarter points that way too: a 10.7% share of trading volume, a fourth straight quarterly gain, and customer assets back at a peak share of the market [4]. Those gains predate the hack, so the migration is still a hypothesis.

## What settles the argument, and when

Trading fees and the treasury mark ride crypto prices. The yield on the $22 billion of USDC, the stablecoin, held in Coinbase products rides interest rates, and lower rates took $52.8 million off stablecoin revenue last quarter even as balances grew [8][4]. The Federal Reserve moves both sides of the business. The half Coinbase controls looks intact: subscriptions and services now bring in nearly half of net revenue [4].

The argument resolves on three numbers. Bitcoin against the roughly $83,500 mark the quarter put on those coins, where every $1,000 move is worth about $18 million across 17,954 of them [1]. Armstrong's window, which opens November 16 and produces sales only if the stock reaches prices the plan does not disclose [5]. And whether October's daily pace holds through quarter-end [2]. Until those print, the $120 target and the $240 one are the same bet at different prices [2].

## Takeaway

Coinbase's Q3 profit is mostly the bitcoin mark, not the exchange: strip $715 million of crypto gains from $718.7 million of net income and the operating business is running no slower than last quarter. October's daily transaction revenue is above Q3's pace, and the $120 and $240 targets differ only on where bitcoin and the treasury mark go next.

## Sources

1. [FinanceFeeds, "Coinbase Increases Bitcoin Holdings to 18,000 BTC as Armstrong Reaffirms Long-Term Strategy", 3 November 2026](https://financefeeds.com/coinbase-increases-bitcoin-holdings-to-18000-btc-as-armstrong-reaffirms-long-term-strategy/)
2. [CNBC, "Coinbase has been battered over the past month. Morgan Stanley says steer clear", 2 November 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/coinbase-stock-morgan-stanley-downgrade.html)
3. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, "COIN Stock Sees Split View On Wall Street After Binance Hack Shifts Sentiment", 2 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coin-stock-sees-split-view-113057871.html)
4. [Coinbase Global Q3 2026 earnings release, Business Wire, 29 October 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261028437153/en/Coinbase-Q3-2026-Earnings-Show-All-time-high-Coinbase-One-Subscribers-and-Prediction-Markets-Surpassing-%24200-Million-in-Annualized-Revenue)
5. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "Coinbase CEO could sell 8.2 million shares", 2 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coinbase-ceo-could-sell-8-195154404.html)
6. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "Goldman Sachs names stock winners and losers after $6.3 bln Binance heist", 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/goldman-sachs-names-stock-winners-123713018.html)
7. [Cointelegraph via TradingView, "ARK buys $17M in Coinbase, Circle shares while trimming Bullish", 3 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:51dc1194a094b:0-ark-buys-17m-in-coinbase-circle-shares-while-trimming-bullish/)
8. [CoinLaw, "Coinbase Q3 Profit Rises as Transaction Revenue Falls 44%", 30 October 2026](https://coinlaw.io/coinbase-q3-profit-rises-transaction-revenue-falls/)


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Coinbase's $718.7 million profit includes $715 million of crypto gains; $120 and $240 targets are one bet — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/coinbase-s-718-7-million-profit-includes-715-million-of-crypto-gains-120-and-240-targets-are-one-bet