--- title: "Constellation Energy CEO calls data-center demand forecasts massively overstated; GE Vernova stock fell 7.4%" description: "Two power CEOs told the market within three days that the grid-queue numbers behind the AI buildout were padded by speculation. The repricing lands on developers and equipment makers; the incumbents with power already sold are watching their contracts, not the queues." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-10T19:17:50.683Z modified: 2026-11-10T19:17:50.683Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-energy-ceo-calls-data-center-demand-forecasts-massively-overstated-ge-vernova-stock-fell-7-4 language: en keywords: "Power, Nuclear, Data Centers, Utilities" --- # Constellation Energy CEO calls data-center demand forecasts massively overstated; GE Vernova stock fell 7.4% > Two power CEOs told the market within three days that the grid-queue numbers behind the AI buildout were padded by speculation. The repricing lands on developers and equipment makers; the incumbents with power already sold are watching their contracts, not the queues. [Constellation Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/constellation-energy)'s CEO said on [Monday's third-quarter call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/constellation-ceo-sounds-alarm-data-171915165.html) that utilities and grid operators "did not do a good job estimating the real number of data centers," and that the error "resulted in a massive overestimation" [1]. On the same call the company [raised its 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance for a second time this year](https://theinference.org/article/constellation-energy-raises-2026-guidance-again-after-a-5-06-beat-its-2028-case-rests-on-unsigned-deals), to $12.50 to $12.80 per share [1]. [Vistra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vistra)'s chief executive gave the same diagnosis on Friday, blaming speculative developers for [overstated grid-queue numbers](https://theinference.org/article/centerpoint-s-70-7-billion-capital-plan-hangs-on-12-gw-texas-froze-until-a-december-audit), especially in ERCOT [1]. The AI power complex repriced on Tuesday: Constellation fell 3.87%, Vistra 3.06%, and [GE Vernova](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ge-vernova) 7.4% after [SoftBank revised equipment procurement for its US data center projects](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-shares-slide-after-softbank-revises-us-data-center-project-plans-2026-11-10/) and booked a $3.7 billion charge [1][2]. *Chart: **GE Vernova took the worst of Tuesday's repricing, down 7.4%** Bar chart of one-day share-price moves on Tuesday, November 10, 2026: GE Vernova fell 7.4%, Constellation fell 3.87%, Vistra fell 3.06%.* *One-day share-price moves, Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Constellation and Vistra fell after their chief executives called grid-queue data-center demand overstated; GE Vernova fell after SoftBank revised equipment procurement for its US data center projects and booked a $3.7 billion charge. Sources: Yahoo Finance [1]; Reuters [2]. [1][2]* ## If the queues are padded, who pays If Dominguez is right, the losses should land on whoever sized plants, debt and rate plans against those queue numbers: the developers holding placeholder projects, the equipment makers counting on their orders, and possibly the ratepayers behind the biggest utility buildout plans. GE Vernova, which sells the turbines, is the clearest named exposure so far [2]. *Chart: **Constellation's multiple has already come down from 38x to 23x, with room to a 16x floor** Column chart of Constellation Energy's forward P/E at four points: 38x in October 2025, 23x in November 2026, 26x three-year average, 16x December 2023 low.* *Constellation Energy (CEG) forward (next-twelve-month) price-to-earnings ratio, in multiples, as reported via TIKR; three-year average and December 2023 low shown for context. Source: TIKR data via Yahoo Finance [1]. [1]* ## The incumbents with power already sold Both CEOs can afford the diagnosis because their output is contracted. Constellation signed about 4,560 megawatts of new long-term agreements since its last report, more than 8,500 megawatts this year running into the 2040s, and expects about 45% of its clean baseload fleet hedged by 2032 [1]. Vistra has signed over 4 gigawatts of long-term power purchase agreements and lifted its 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.7 to $8.5 billion [1]. A padded queue hurts projects waiting for demand; it does not change what a signed contract pays. ## The challenger betting the queues were right Venture Global, the LNG exporter, is going the other way. It reported [frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/venture-global-reports-third-quarter-113000520.html) on its Louisiana sites, expects to begin delivering compute capacity in late 2028 and to scale to about 5 gigawatts by the end of 2031, and describes itself as a potential vertically integrated AI utility [3]. Those are equipment frame agreements, not data center customer contracts; that is a bet the demand Dominguez calls overstated shows up anyway. ## What would settle it Watch two tests. FERC is expected to rule in the first half of 2027 on large loads sited next to power plants, which could make the next deals easier or harder to sign [1]. And watch whether Venture Global converts any of those 16 power islands into signed compute customers before the turbines ship [3]. Capital should follow signed buyers, not queue positions; the FERC ruling and Venture Global's first contract will tell us which side the market has to believe. ## Takeaway Two power chief executives say the grid queues behind the AI buildout are padded with speculation, and the repricing hit hardest where the exposure is real: GE Vernova's turbine order book, not the incumbents whose output is contracted into the 2040s. FERC's large-load ruling and Venture Global's first signed compute customer will show whose forecast was right. ## Sources 1. [Yahoo Finance / TIKR, Constellation CEO Sounds the Alarm: Data Center Demand Was a 'Massive Overestimation.' Its Nuclear Contracts Run to the 2040s, 10 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/constellation-ceo-sounds-alarm-data-171915165.html) 2. [Reuters, GE Vernova shares slide after SoftBank revises US data center project plans, 10 November 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-shares-slide-after-softbank-revises-us-data-center-project-plans-2026-11-10/) 3. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, Venture Global Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, 10 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/venture-global-reports-third-quarter-113000520.html) --- Constellation Energy CEO calls data-center demand forecasts massively overstated; GE Vernova stock fell 7.4% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-energy-ceo-calls-data-center-demand-forecasts-massively-overstated-ge-vernova-stock-fell-7-4