--- title: "Constellation Energy reports Monday: consensus 2028 EPS of $16.80 needs 7 to 18 gigawatts, only 1.1 signed" description: "Constellation Energy reports Monday with consensus EPS already above its guidance midpoint, and the 2028 estimate rests on gigawatts nobody has signed. The math says roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new contracts; 1.1 are locked in." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-08T15:43:31.000Z modified: 2026-11-08T15:43:31.000Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-energy-reports-monday-consensus-2028-eps-of-16-80-needs-7-to-18-gigawatts-only-1-1-signed language: en keywords: "Constellation Energy, Nuclear, Earnings, Power Contracts, Data Centers" --- # Constellation Energy reports Monday: consensus 2028 EPS of $16.80 needs 7 to 18 gigawatts, only 1.1 signed > Constellation Energy reports Monday with consensus EPS already above its guidance midpoint, and the 2028 estimate rests on gigawatts nobody has signed. The math says roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new contracts; 1.1 are locked in. [Constellation Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/constellation-energy), the largest US nuclear operator, reports third-quarter results Monday November 9, and the stock will not be graded on the quarter [1][3]. It will be graded on megawatts nobody has signed yet. The shares closed at $249.95 on November 6, down 12.3% in a month and 29.2% year to date, against [a utilities sector up 0.6% on the year](https://www.quantisnow.com/sector-performance/utilities) [1][3]. Consensus expects EPS of $3.88 and revenue of $9.35 billion, with revenue estimates revised up five times and never down over three months [6]. *Chart: **Constellation fell 12.3% in a month as the utilities sector gained 4.8%** Bars of one-month price change to November 6, 2026, for Constellation (-12.3%), Vistra (-20.1%), NRG (-17.0%) and the S&P 500 utilities sector (+4.8%).* *One-month price change through the official close of Friday November 6, 2026, price only, in percent. Source: Quantisnow S&P 500 utilities sector data. [3]* ## The math the market is trading The gap between signed and priced is the whole story. Analysts see normalized EPS rising from $9.39 in 2025 to $16.80 in 2028, a $7.41 climb [1]. Management's own arithmetic prices a long-term contract at $0.40 to $1.00 of base EPS per gigawatt of nuclear output contracted [1]. Ignoring every other driver, the 2028 consensus needs roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new agreements [1][5]. What is signed so far is about 1.1: [the October Google package of 3,590 MW](https://cryptobriefing.com/constellation-energy-google-nuclear-uprates/), including 890 MW of new uprates on a 20-year term, [plus Amazon capacity](https://theinference.org/article/amazon-scrapped-its-maryland-data-center-and-bought-the-nuclear-plant-s-power-anyway), together about 1,080 MW of uprates on 20-year terms [1][5]. First uprate power arrives only in 2028; full delivery by 2032 [5]. Only about 30% of Constellation's clean baseload output was under long-term contract as of August, before those deals [1]. *Chart: **Only 1.1 of the 7 to 18 gigawatts the 2028 consensus needs are signed** Bars comparing new long-term nuclear contracts in gigawatts: about 1.1 signed against the 7 to 18 the 2028 consensus implies.* *New long-term nuclear contracts in gigawatts. Signed is the October Google package and Amazon capacity, together about 1,080 MW of uprates on 20-year terms. The 7 to 18 GW range is the new contracting the $16.80 2028 consensus EPS implies. Sources: TIKR; Crypto Briefing. [1][5]* ## Guidance is already beaten; signings and Texas are the risks First, guidance. Management will revisit 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $11.50 to $12.50 a share, and consensus normalized EPS already sits at $12.21, above the midpoint [1]. Second, signings. New long-term agreements would fill the pipeline behind [a conditional $5 billion federal loan for uprates at eight plants](https://www.tikr.com/blog/constellation-energy-just-dropped-17-in-a-month-is-it-time-to-sell-or-load-up) [1]. Third, Texas. The Calpine gas assets now sit under governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on an immediate moratorium on new data-center permits; [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) already flags Texas power companies, Constellation included, as vulnerable to that policy shift [4]. *Chart: **Consensus has EPS climbing 79% from 2025 to 2028, above the 2026 midpoint** Columns of Constellation normalized EPS: $9.39 in 2025, consensus $12.21 for 2026, and consensus $16.80 for 2028, with the last two marked as estimates.* *Normalized EPS in dollars per share. 2025 is reported. 2026 and 2028 are consensus estimates; 2026 consensus of $12.21 sits above the midpoint of the $11.50 to $12.50 adjusted operating earnings guidance range. Source: TIKR. [1]* ## Demand is real; delivery is what slips Buyers are not imaginary, but delivery is. [Microsoft spent $45.2 billion on capital expenditures last quarter](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:72d824744094b:0-iren-stock-drops-after-report-says-it-s-behind-microsoft-s-ai-spending-delay-as-investors-turn-to-earnings/), about $5 billion below plan, because third-party data-center capacity it expected to rent was not ready on time; [IREN](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/iren)'s Childress, Texas site was one provider behind [2]. A supplier that slips on one contracted megawatt has, on the evidence, real company. Monday's report is the first scheduled reading. Fewer than about two gigawatts of new signings and that $16.80 for 2028 has to come down. ## Takeaway Monday's print will be judged on signings, not the quarter: the 2028 consensus of $16.80 needs roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new contracts and only about 1.1 are signed. ## Sources 1. [TIKR, Constellation Energy Just Dropped 17% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell, or Load Up?, 8 November 2026](https://www.tikr.com/blog/constellation-energy-just-dropped-17-in-a-month-is-it-time-to-sell-or-load-up) 2. [TradingView/Stocktwits, IREN Stock Drops After Report Says It's Behind Microsoft's AI Spending Delay, 6-8 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:72d824744094b:0-iren-stock-drops-after-report-says-it-s-behind-microsoft-s-ai-spending-delay-as-investors-turn-to-earnings/) 3. [Quantisnow, Utilities sector performance, S&P 500 utilities stocks, close of 6 November 2026](https://www.quantisnow.com/sector-performance/utilities) 4. [Newsweek, Texas Hits Brakes on Data Centers, and Elon Musk's Plans, 6-8 November 2026](https://www.newsweek.com/texas-hits-brakes-on-data-centers-and-elon-musks-plans-12675796) 5. [Crypto Briefing, Constellation Energy commits over $4.3 billion to nuclear reactor upgrades in Google deal, 6 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/constellation-energy-google-nuclear-uprates/) 6. [Seeking Alpha via MSN, Constellation Energy Q3 2026 earnings preview, 6 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/constellation-energy-q3-2026-earnings-preview/ar-AA2gTZdo) --- Constellation Energy reports Monday: consensus 2028 EPS of $16.80 needs 7 to 18 gigawatts, only 1.1 signed — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-energy-reports-monday-consensus-2028-eps-of-16-80-needs-7-to-18-gigawatts-only-1-1-signed