--- title: "Constellation's 18.5-year nuclear contracts meet the November 3 midterms and the grid cost fight" description: "Constellation signed a 20-year Google deal and a multi-decade PPA book that bets on uninterrupted data-center growth. If Democrats take the House on November 3, its customers face bigger grid bills and tighter permits, and regulators face pressure to cap returns on its contracts." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-10-25T14:08:19.679Z modified: 2026-10-25T14:08:19.679Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-s-18-5-year-nuclear-contracts-meet-the-november-3-midterms-and-the-grid-cost-fight language: en keywords: "Nuclear, Data Centers, Regulation, Utilities, Elections" --- # Constellation's 18.5-year nuclear contracts meet the November 3 midterms and the grid cost fight > Constellation signed a 20-year Google deal and a multi-decade PPA book that bets on uninterrupted data-center growth. If Democrats take the House on November 3, its customers face bigger grid bills and tighter permits, and regulators face pressure to cap returns on its contracts. [Constellation Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/constellation-energy) [signed a 20-year nuclear power deal with Google](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/constellation-energy-ceg-signs-google-151527880.html) on Tuesday, and ten days before the November 3 midterms it sits on both sides of the election trade [1][2]. Lee Seung-hun of IBK Investment Securities and Choi Bo-won of Korea Investment Securities put power producers like Constellation among the winners, on long-term electricity demand. The same analysts put data-center operators among the losers, facing tighter permitting and bigger grid bills if Democrats take the House. [1][2] Constellation's contracted nuclear book sits on both ends: its revenue comes from the customers the other side wants to tax. [2] ## The contracts assume two decades without a repricing Google signed for 20 years; Constellation added roughly 920 MW of nuclear PPAs in the second quarter alone, averaging about 18.5 years in duration, with [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) backing the Crane restart and [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) taking Clinton. [2] These are not bets on next year's power price. They are bets that the customers behind them can build and run data centers for two decades without regulators repricing the deal in between. *Chart: **Revenue jumped 63.8% in Q1 '26 as the contracted nuclear book swelled** Constellation Energy quarterly revenue and operating income, Q3 2024 through Q2 2026* *Constellation Energy quarterly revenue and operating income from its SEC filings, in USD billions, retrieved October 25, 2026. [3]* A Democratic Congress that makes operators pay more of grid-upgrade costs and tightens permits would likely slow exactly that build-out. [New York's temporary moratorium on large data centers](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10913639) is the template researchers say could spread to the Northeast and Midwest if Democrats win decisively. [1] ## The valuation already carries the risk The stock already prices some of this. CEG is down 26% this year, though it has returned 146% over three years. [2] *Chart: **Three years of gains, one year of doubt at Constellation** Constellation Energy total shareholder returns over three horizons as of October 2026* *Total shareholder return (TSR) for Constellation Energy, the share price change plus dividends, as reported by Simply Wall St, October 22, 2026. [2]* The most-followed valuation narrative calls it 23% undervalued at a $350 fair value, and names the real risk: regulators capping returns on long-dated nuclear contracts. [2] ## What to watch after November 3 Demand for Constellation's power is likely durable even if Democrats win: AI build-outs need firm, carbon-free supply, and a single election is unlikely to end that. What can change is who pays for the grid between the plant and the server hall. If data centers shoulder their own grid costs and permitting holds, Constellation's contracted book keeps its value; if permitting freezes projects, the backlog waits longer to convert to cash flow. Which of those binds depends on how decisively Democrats win and how far regulators go. Until the vote, CEG shareholders are holding an unresolved question about who pays for the grid. Two markers tell you first: whether the moratorium logic spreads beyond New York, and whether any state utility commission moves to reprice a co-located data-center contract, long before any PPA is renegotiated. ## Takeaway Constellation's 20-year Google deal and 18.5-year average PPA book assume two decades without regulatory repricing; a Democratic House on November 3 could shift grid costs onto data centers and tighten permits, so watch whether New York's moratorium spreads and whether any state commission reopens a co-located contract. ## Sources 1. [The Korea Herald, US midterms tilt Democratic: data center stocks face headwinds, healthcare and power stocks gain favor, 2026-10-25](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10913639) 2. [Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, Constellation Energy (CEG) Signs Google Nuclear Deal, Is It Still Undervalued?, 2026-10-22](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/constellation-energy-ceg-signs-google-151527880.html) 3. [Constellation Energy, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 25 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001868275) --- Constellation's 18.5-year nuclear contracts meet the November 3 midterms and the grid cost fight — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-s-18-5-year-nuclear-contracts-meet-the-november-3-midterms-and-the-grid-cost-fight