---
title: "Constellation's nuclear contracts run 20 years; its cash problem is due now"
description: "Google, Amazon and Meta have locked up the largest US carbon-free power producer under contracts as long as 20 years, and the stock is still down 23 percent this year. Free cash flow has been negative for three straight quarters; the November 6 report shows whether $5.9 billion of court-ordered plant sales closes the gap."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-10-22T15:38:48.456Z
modified: 2026-10-22T15:38:48.456Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-s-nuclear-contracts-run-20-years-its-cash-problem-is-due-now
language: en
keywords: "Constellation Energy, Nuclear, Data Centers, Power Contracts, Earnings, Free Cash Flow"
---

# Constellation's nuclear contracts run 20 years; its cash problem is due now

> Google, Amazon and Meta have locked up the largest US carbon-free power producer under contracts as long as 20 years, and the stock is still down 23 percent this year. Free cash flow has been negative for three straight quarters; the November 6 report shows whether $5.9 billion of court-ordered plant sales closes the gap.

## The fleet is sold out; the shares are down 23 percent

[Constellation Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/constellation-energy), the largest US producer of carbon-free electricity, spent the autumn selling its nuclear output decades at a time [4]. [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon) signed [a 20-year deal on September 30 for 690 megawatts at Calvert Cliffs](https://datacenterfeed.com/article/amazon-constellation-calvert-cliffs-690-mw-nuclear-ppa-maryland-september-2026), Maryland's only nuclear plant, including a 190-megawatt expansion due online between 2030 and 2032 [1].

[Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) has 1,121 megawatts arriving from June 2027 [1], and Google [took 3,590 megawatts on October 6](https://theinference.org/article/three-quarters-of-google-s-3-6-gigawatt-constellation-nuclear-deal-is-power-that-already-exists) [2]. Add about 920 megawatts of further long-term deals signed since the spring call, averaging 18.5 years, and roughly 30 percent of Constellation's clean baseload is now contracted [3].

*Chart: **Google's October contract is the largest of the new nuclear deals** Bar chart ranking Constellation's new long-term nuclear contracts in megawatts: Google 3,590, Meta 1,121, Amazon 690, other deals 920*

*Megawatts under newly signed long-term nuclear power contracts, as reported in the deals and the second-quarter call; contracts run as long as 20 years. Sources: DatacenterFeed, The Inference, the Q2 2026 earnings call. [1][2][3]*

The stock closed October 21 at $270.74, down 23 percent this year after a 13.8 percent two-week slide, and less than a fifth above its 52-week low of $228.63 [5][6].

## The debt arrived faster than the cash

The problem is the balance sheet, not demand. Constellation closed its $21.8 billion purchase of Calpine, a gas-power producer, in January [4]. Debt stood at $24.7 billion on June 30, against $8.3 billion a year earlier, with $697 million of cash on hand [7].

Free cash flow, what is left after capital spending, has been negative for three straight quarters, including an $850 million shortfall in the March quarter [7]. The company still put about $2.2 billion into its own stock in the four months after March, with $2.8 billion of authorization left [3].

The bridge is court-ordered: the Justice Department conditioned Calpine on selling gas plants expected to raise about $5.9 billion, including [4.4 gigawatts to LS Power at roughly $1,142 a kilowatt](https://theinference.org/article/ls-power-s-6-billion-fund-buys-the-gas-plants-constellation-had-to-sell) [2][3]. Operating cash flow did climb, to $4.2 billion over the twelve months to June from $456 million [7].

*Chart: **Free cash flow has been negative for three straight quarters** Column chart of Constellation Energy quarterly free cash flow from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, negative in the last three quarters*

*Quarterly free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, in billions of dollars, from Constellation's SEC filings. Negative in Q4 '25, Q1 '26 and Q2 '26. Source: SEC filings. [8]*

## The banks price the rebound anyway

HSBC started coverage at Buy on October 22 with a $335 target, against 23 Buy ratings, 7 Holds and 1 Sell [9]. [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) lifted its target to $378, about 40 percent above the shares [10]; the consensus average sits at $341.49 [4]. Management [raised 2026 guidance to $11.50 to $12.50 a share in August](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG/earnings/CEG-Q2-2026-earnings_call-665938.html) [3] and projects free cash flow before growth of $11.5 to $13 billion for 2028 and 2029 [11]. Before growth is the phrase carrying that forecast. Morgan Stanley itself lists the November midterms as a catalyst for data-center opposition [10].

*Chart: **Street targets sit 24 to 40 percent above the October 21 close** Bar chart ranking Constellation's 52-week low and October 21 close against the HSBC, consensus and Morgan Stanley price targets*

*Constellation's 52-week low and October 21 close, in dollars, against the HSBC target set October 22, the consensus average and Morgan Stanley's target. Sources: GuruFocus, StreetInsider, TradingKey, TradingView. [5][9][4][10]*

## November 6 comes down to one line

The [third-quarter report, expected November 6](https://247wallst.com/companies/ceg/earnings/) [11], turns on free cash flow. If the divestiture money arrives fast enough to cover spending, the negative streak ends and a $270.74 share price marks a problem being solved [3][6]. If it does not, the buyback is the easiest lever to leave unused, and a 0.6 percent dividend pays little for waiting [3][6]. The signed reactors are safe. The pipeline behind the 920 megawatts is what has to retire $24.7 billion of debt [3][6]. Twenty-year contracts do not pay this quarter's bills.

## Takeaway

Constellation's new nuclear contracts run as long as 20 years, but free cash flow has been negative for three straight quarters, and the November 6 report on $5.9 billion of court-ordered plant sales decides whether the $270.74 stock is a discount or a warning.

## Sources

1. [DatacenterFeed, Amazon Signs 20-Year, 690-MW Deal With Constellation at Maryland's Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Plant, October 2026](https://datacenterfeed.com/article/amazon-constellation-calvert-cliffs-690-mw-nuclear-ppa-maryland-september-2026)
2. [The Inference, LS Power's $6 billion fund buys the gas plants Constellation had to sell, October 21, 2026](https://theinference.org/article/ls-power-s-6-billion-fund-buys-the-gas-plants-constellation-had-to-sell)
3. [Yahoo Finance, Constellation Energy (CEG) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript, August 6, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG/earnings/CEG-Q2-2026-earnings_call-665938.html)
4. [TradingKey, Constellation Energy Corp Stock (CEG) Moved Up by 5.50% on Oct 21: A Full Analysis, October 21, 2026](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262229601-market-movers-ceg-20261021)
5. [GuruFocus, A Look at Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) After 4.6% Gain, GF Value $308.78 vs Price $270.74, October 21, 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9135194/a-look-at-constellation-energy-corp-ceg-after-46-gain-gf-value-30878-vs-price-27074)
6. [Trefis, Should You Buy The Dip In Constellation Energy Stock?, October 21, 2026](https://www.trefis.com/stock/ceg/articles/619625/should-you-buy-the-dip-in-constellation-energy-stock/2026-10-21)
7. [Trefis, Is This Number The Biggest Risk To Constellation Energy Stock?, October 19, 2026](https://www.trefis.com/stock/ceg/articles/619175/is-this-number-the-biggest-risk-to-constellation-energy-stock/2026-10-19)
8. [Constellation Energy, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 22 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001868275)
9. [StreetInsider, HSBC Starts Constellation Energy (CEG) at Buy, October 22, 2026](https://www.streetinsider.com/New+Coverage/HSBC+Starts+Constellation+Energy+%28CEG%29+at+Buy/27217825.html)
10. [TradingView (Stocktwits), Nuclear Energy Analyst Roundup: Wall Street Weighs In On OKLO, SMR, CEG, VST, LEU Stocks, October 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:e19ea86df094b:0-nuclear-energy-analyst-roundup-wall-street-weighs-in-on-oklo-smr-ceg-vst-leu-stocks/)
11. [24/7 Wall St, Constellation Energy (CEG) Q2 2026 Earnings: Results, Market Reaction & History, August 6, 2026](https://247wallst.com/companies/ceg/earnings/)


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Constellation's nuclear contracts run 20 years; its cash problem is due now — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/constellation-s-nuclear-contracts-run-20-years-its-cash-problem-is-due-now