---
title: "Copper near records, Grasberg mills at 67% of pre-accident rates: Freeport-McMoRan reports October 27"
description: "Freeport-McMoRan produced 830 million pounds of copper company-wide last quarter but expects to sell 750 million, and its Grasberg mills still run at two-thirds of pre-accident rates. The October 27 report shows whether a copper price near record highs can carry the volume still underground."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-10-14T19:12:14.545Z
modified: 2026-10-14T19:12:14.545Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/copper-near-records-grasberg-mills-at-67-of-pre-accident-rates-freeport-mcmoran-reports-october-27
language: en
keywords: "Copper, Freeport McMoRan, Mining, Grasberg, Earnings Preview"
---

# Copper near records, Grasberg mills at 67% of pre-accident rates: Freeport-McMoRan reports October 27

> Freeport-McMoRan produced 830 million pounds of copper company-wide last quarter but expects to sell 750 million, and its Grasberg mills still run at two-thirds of pre-accident rates. The October 27 report shows whether a copper price near record highs can carry the volume still underground.

## A mud rush, then a year of digging out

A year after a deadly mud rush at Grasberg, its copper-and-gold complex in Papua, Indonesia, [Freeport-McMoRan](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000831259) is still digging out. The September 2025 accident [forced force majeure, the contract clause that excuses missed deliveries](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/metal-and-mining/does-the-grasberg-halt-tighten-copper-for-freeport-mcmoran-nysefcx), and cut 2026 copper sales guidance to 3.1 billion pounds, from 3.4 billion [2][3].

Freeport, Phoenix-based and an S&P 500 member, reports third-quarter results before the open on October 27 and pays its 7.5-cent quarterly dividend November 2 [1]. Last quarter [Grasberg's mills averaged 140,000 tonnes of ore a day, 67 percent of pre-accident rates](https://www.securities.io/freeport-reports-third-quarter-copper-output-of-830-million-pounds/), half of it from the [Block](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/block) Cave, the underground mine now in phased recovery [4].

## The banks are buying 2027 tonnes

On October 5 [Citi lifted its target to $84 from $66](https://theinference.org/article/nine-banks-lifted-freeport-mcmoran-targets-to-as-high-as-92-on-a-copper-squeeze-freeport-says-ends-in-2027) and kept Buy, citing Grasberg progress and the copper outlook [1]. Two days later [JPMorgan went to $92 from $77](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/jpmorgan-raises-target-for-freeport-mcmoran-stock-to-usd-92-00/70300117), at Overweight, a buy rating [5]. The stock [ended October 13 worth $103.2 billion](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/october-27-results-are-set-as-freeport-mcmoran-stock-is-valued-at-usd-103-2-billion/70316468), 35.18 times earnings against 18.62 for Teck Resources, a Canadian mining peer [6], then slid to $68.97 on October 14 [7].

That is the trade the banks underwrite: investors are paying today's price for tonnes that reach the surface in 2027.

*Chart: **Bank targets stack above a stock still under its 52-week high** Bar chart comparing JPMorgan's $92 target, Citi's $84 target, the $80.24 52-week high and the October 14 share price of $68.97*

*US dollars per share. Targets as published; price from Freeport's investor site on October 14, 2026. [1][5][6][7]*

## Price did volume's job in the June quarter

The second quarter, reported July 23, showed the shape [1]. Realized copper averaged $6.17 a pound, up 35.9 percent year over year, while copper sales fell 30.1 percent to 710 million pounds [6]. Revenue slipped 7.3 percent to $7.03 billion; net income rose 27.5 percent to $984 million [6].

October repeats the shape, company-wide. Freeport produced 830 million pounds of copper but expects to sell 750 million [4]. Gold sales came in 60,000 ounces light after deferrals into the fourth quarter, and unit costs are running 5 percent above the $2.00-a-pound July estimate against a realized price above $6.50 [4].

*Chart: **Net income has nearly doubled since late 2024 on flat revenue** Column chart of Freeport quarterly revenue and net income from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, showing net income nearly doubling on flat revenue*

*US dollars, billions, per calendar quarter, from Freeport-McMoRan's SEC filings. Revenue in Q2 2026 of $7.03B sits near Q3 2024's $6.79B while net income nearly doubled. [10]*

## What the October 27 report has to settle

The report has to show copper near record highs covering both the cost creep and the 80-million-pound company-wide gap between what Freeport produced and what it expects to ship.

The bull case is timing: the deferred gold returns in the fourth quarter, and the mills are guided to 80 percent of capacity by mid-2027 and full capacity by end-2027 [4]. Second-half sales were already guided more than 20 percent above the first half [3].

The bear case is that copper's run is a policy trade. Comex, the New York futures exchange, [settled at a record $6.89 a pound on September 9](https://www.mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table/), then slid on October 14 as United States inflation data revived rate-hike odds and Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, neared a labor deal [8]. Macquarie counts surpluses above 700,000 tonnes a year from 2027 as Grasberg and other mines ramp [8].

[Official data put the copper market near balance](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/13/official-data-show-copper-market-near-balance-as-us-inventories-climb/), exchange stocks at their highest since 2003, and Washington still deciding whether to tax refined copper imports from January 1 [9]. Holders are long two clocks: the Grasberg ramp that completes at end-2027, and the tariff call on January 1.

## Takeaway

Freeport's October 27 report has to show copper above $6 a pound covering an 80-million-pound sales gap, 5 percent unit-cost creep and mills still at 67 percent of pre-accident rates, with bank targets of $84 to $92 resting on a ramp that completes only at end-2027.

## Sources

1. [ad-hoc-news.de, "Citi raises target for Freeport-McMoRan stock to USD 84.00," 14 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/citi-raises-target-for-freeport-mcmoran-stock-to-usd-84-00/70322231)
2. [Kalkine Media, "Does the Grasberg Halt Tighten Copper for Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)?", 13 October 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/metal-and-mining/does-the-grasberg-halt-tighten-copper-for-freeport-mcmoran-nysefcx)
3. [24/7 Wall St, "Freeport-McMoRan Has Ripped 44% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get FCX Stock Up to $100?", 7 September 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/07/freeport-mcmoran-has-ripped-44-in-2026-what-would-it-take-to-get-fcx-stock-up-to-100/)
4. [Securities.io, "Freeport Reports Third-Quarter Copper Output of 830 Million Pounds," 2 October 2026](https://www.securities.io/freeport-reports-third-quarter-copper-output-of-830-million-pounds/)
5. [ad-hoc-news.de, "JPMorgan raises target for Freeport-McMoRan stock to USD 92.00," 12 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/jpmorgan-raises-target-for-freeport-mcmoran-stock-to-usd-92-00/70300117)
6. [ad-hoc-news.de, "October 27 results are set as Freeport-McMoRan stock is valued at USD 103.2 billion," 14 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/october-27-results-are-set-as-freeport-mcmoran-stock-is-valued-at-usd-103-2-billion/70316468)
7. [Freeport-McMoRan Investor Relations, news releases page with current quote, accessed 14 October 2026](https://investors.fcx.com/investors/news-releases/default.aspx)
8. [MINING.com, "Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026 but tariff 'collapse' still on the table," 14 October 2026](https://www.mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table/)
9. [Forbes, "Official Data Show Copper Market Near Balance As U.S. Inventories Climb," 13 October 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/13/official-data-show-copper-market-near-balance-as-us-inventories-climb/)
10. [Freeport-McMoRan, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000831259)


---

Copper near records, Grasberg mills at 67% of pre-accident rates: Freeport-McMoRan reports October 27 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/copper-near-records-grasberg-mills-at-67-of-pre-accident-rates-freeport-mcmoran-reports-october-27