--- title: "CXMT guides to 132.5 billion yuan in nine-month profit, then its stock falls 7.8%" description: "CXMT, the Hefei-based DRAM challenger, guided its first results since July's IPO to as much as US$19.8 billion of nine-month net income, against a 5.3 billion yuan loss a year earlier. What the filing cannot show is whether its 16-nanometer DRAM can pass a server customer's tests." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-22T15:12:48.183Z modified: 2026-10-22T15:12:48.183Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-guides-to-132-5-billion-yuan-in-nine-month-profit-then-its-stock-falls-7-8 language: en keywords: "Chips, Memory, DRAM, China, Earnings" --- # CXMT guides to 132.5 billion yuan in nine-month profit, then its stock falls 7.8% > CXMT, the Hefei-based DRAM challenger, guided its first results since July's IPO to as much as US$19.8 billion of nine-month net income, against a 5.3 billion yuan loss a year earlier. What the filing cannot show is whether its 16-nanometer DRAM can pass a server customer's tests. ## CXMT's first filing as a listed company prints a 49% margin On October 16, 2026, [CXMT](https://theinference.org/markets/companies), the Hefei-based DRAM maker challenging [Samsung](https://theinference.org/markets/companies), [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) and [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron), [filed its first preliminary results](https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/17/chinas-cxmt-sees-third-quarter-revenue-surge-over-600) since its July IPO raised up to 66.61 billion yuan [1]. Third-quarter revenue was guided at 114.7 to 119.7 billion yuan, up 589 to 619% year on year and 15 to 20% from the second quarter [1]. Nine-month revenue should reach 265 to 270 billion yuan, against 32.1 billion a year earlier [1]. Net income of 131 to 132.5 billion yuan replaces a 5.3 billion yuan loss, which leaves about 49% of revenue reaching the bottom line at the midpoints [1]. CXMT credited demand for AI computing outrunning global DRAM supply, lifting prices [1]. *Chart: **Nine months took CXMT from a 5.3 billion yuan loss to a 132 billion yuan profit** Four bars comparing CXMT's nine-month revenue and net income for 2025 and 2026, showing the swing from a 5.3 billion yuan loss to a preliminary 132 billion yuan profit* *Reported 2025 figures against CXMT's preliminary 2026 guided ranges (midpoints plotted) from its October 16 filing. Billions of yuan. [1][2]* ## The buyback could not stop the selling Chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a 1 to 2 billion yuan buyback over 12 months, several times the 200 to 800 million yuan that companies on China's STAR Market, its Nasdaq-style board, typically spend [1]. With only about 6% of CXMT's shares trading freely, 2 billion yuan would absorb nearly 1% of the float [3]. The stock still fell 5.24% on October 15, rebounded 3.28% when the filing landed, then [closed down 7.8% at 41.52 yuan](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/cxmt-forecasts-up-to-us-198-billion-in-3-quarters-net-income-pledges-share-buy-back/ar-AA2ev3Wj) on Monday October 19 as memory stocks slid worldwide [2][3]. *Chart: **CXMT's stock fell 7.8% the session after the filing landed** Three columns showing CXMT's daily stock moves around its preliminary results: down 5.24 percent, up 3.28 percent, down 7.8 percent* *Daily percentage changes in CXMT's stock around its first preliminary results, October 15 to 19, 2026. Close of 41.52 yuan on October 19. Sources: South China Morning Post; JKN News. [2][3]* The reason sits inside the filing: third-quarter net income of 53.4 to 54.9 billion yuan grew just 1.0 to 3.8% from the second quarter while revenue grew 15 to 20% [3]. Profit stalled because shortage pricing did the work, while the server chip CXMT promised for year-end [has not shipped or passed a customer's test](https://www.rprna.com/cxmt-says-it-will-ship-4f%C2%B2-server-ddr5-by-year-end-but-questions-remain/) [5]. ## The profit is consumer memory, the promise is servers Nearly all of that money came from consumer memory, which is what CXMT has mainly built [5]. It held [9.5% of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/12/news-cxmt-accelerates-4f%c2%b2-dram-push-eyes-year-end-server-ddr5-rdimm-launch/), up from 7.6%, fourth behind the three incumbents [4]. Counterpoint Research, a second research firm, counts CXMT lower, at 7% [3]. The server promise predates the filing. On October 10, president Cao Kanyu told a Shanghai chip conference that a DDR5 RDIMM, a registered memory module for servers built on the 4F² cell that is about a third smaller than the industry's 6F² layout, would ship by year-end, [as TheInference reported on October 11](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-says-server-dram-ships-in-2026-two-years-ahead-of-samsung-landing-on-micron-s-87-margin), against Samsung's 2028 target for the same design [5][4]. Samsung fell more than 6%, SK hynix more than 9% and Micron 3.88% when the promise landed, [a selloff TheInference covered on October 12](https://theinference.org/article/micron-sold-off-on-cxmt-s-spec-free-server-memory-promise-and-trades-near-5-5-times-peak-earnings) [5]. ## The skeptics' case: nothing has shipped What is missing is the product: [no published specifications, verified yields or customer qualification results](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/analyst-lists-7-reasons-why-132909546.html) [6]. CXMT still builds on a 16-nanometer process under limits on extreme-ultraviolet lithography tools, and chip research firm TechInsights puts Chinese server memory two generations behind the majors' 1c-generation parts [5]. Kevin Cassidy of Wall Street brokerage Rosenblatt reckons CXMT's 4F² cells, at its process level, could be 34% larger than rivals' existing parts [3]. Jordan Klein of brokerage Mizuho counters that a launch is not mass production, and that this is conventional DDR5, not the high-bandwidth memory AI racks pay premiums for [6]. *Chart: **CXMT holds 9.5% of world DRAM revenue, fourth and climbing** Bars ranking second-quarter 2026 global DRAM revenue share: Samsung 39.4%, SK hynix 24.9%, Micron 23.3%, CXMT 9.5%* *Share of global DRAM revenue, April to June 2026 quarter, per TrendForce; Counterpoint Research counts CXMT lower, at 7%. [3][4]* ## The next marker lands on October 30 [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) holds both doubts at once: the selloff may have underestimated China's capacity ramp while overestimating its memory technology, given how long customer qualification and high-yield mass production take [2]. The audited third-quarter report, and a server module passing a customer's test by year-end, settle what a preliminary filing cannot [5]. First comes October 30, when [Tokyo Electron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies), the Japanese tool maker whose biggest single market is still China, 222.9 billion yen of June-quarter sales, reports results [7][8]. Its regional split, 30.4% China in June against 49.9% two years earlier, is the first hard read on [the tool bill this buildout is running up](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-targets-4f2-dram-years-ahead-of-samsung-and-naura-collects-the-tool-bill) [8]. That number shows whether the ramp has equipment behind it. ## Takeaway CXMT's first filing as a listed company guided nine-month net income to about 132 billion yuan on 49% margins, and the stock still fell 7.8%. The profit comes from consumer memory priced by a shortage; the server DDR5 promised for year-end has no specs, no verified yields and no customer test, and Tokyo Electron's China numbers on October 30 are the next hard read on the ramp. ## Sources 1. [Seoul Economic Daily, China's CXMT Sees Third-Quarter Revenue Surge of Up to 619%, 17 October 2026](https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/17/chinas-cxmt-sees-third-quarter-revenue-surge-over-600) 2. [South China Morning Post (via MSN), CXMT shares fall 7.8% despite blockbuster earnings figures, 18 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/cxmt-forecasts-up-to-us-198-billion-in-3-quarters-net-income-pledges-share-buy-back/ar-AA2ev3Wj) 3. [JKN News (Korea), CXMT Shares Rebound 3.28% on Forecast of 600% Revenue Surge, 17 October 2026](https://news.jkn.co.kr/editions/english/post/1030072) 4. [TrendForce News, CXMT Accelerates 4F² DRAM Push, Eyes Year-End Server DDR5 RDIMM Launch, 12 October 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/12/news-cxmt-accelerates-4f%c2%b2-dram-push-eyes-year-end-server-ddr5-rdimm-launch/) 5. [RPRNA, CXMT Says It Will Ship 4F² Server DDR5 by Year-End, but Questions Remain, October 2026](https://www.rprna.com/cxmt-says-it-will-ship-4f%C2%B2-server-ddr5-by-year-end-but-questions-remain/) 6. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Analyst lists 7 reasons why China CXMT's claims don't threaten Micron and Sandisk, 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/analyst-lists-7-reasons-why-132909546.html) 7. [Tokyo Electron, Investor Relations calendar (FY2027 Q2 earnings release scheduled 30 October 2026), accessed 22 October 2026](https://www.tel.com/ir/) 8. [note.com (Japan), Tokyo Electron's Business and Stock Price: 3 Reasons for Operating Profit Decline in an AI Boom Year, 13 October 2026](https://note.com/f_analysis1016/n/n5fca66985429) --- CXMT guides to 132.5 billion yuan in nine-month profit, then its stock falls 7.8% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-guides-to-132-5-billion-yuan-in-nine-month-profit-then-its-stock-falls-7-8