--- title: "CXMT's profit rose just 1% to 4% on 15% to 20% more sales; SK hynix reports October 28" description: "China's biggest DRAM maker earned almost nothing more on 15-20% more sales, and its supplier filed that price increases are shrinking. SK hynix's October 28 print decides whether that is a CXMT cost story or the memory cycle's first crack." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-25T16:10:19.534Z modified: 2026-10-25T16:10:19.534Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-s-profit-rose-just-1-to-4-on-15-to-20-more-sales-sk-hynix-reports-october-28 language: en keywords: "Memory, DRAM, CXMT, SK hynix, Semiconductors, China" --- # CXMT's profit rose just 1% to 4% on 15% to 20% more sales; SK hynix reports October 28 > China's biggest DRAM maker earned almost nothing more on 15-20% more sales, and its supplier filed that price increases are shrinking. SK hynix's October 28 print decides whether that is a CXMT cost story or the memory cycle's first crack. [ChangXin Memory Technologies](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cxmt), China's largest DRAM maker, [filed a preliminary nine-month forecast](https://www.sotkn.com/catalyst/cxmt-q3-2026-131b-nine-month-profit-q3-flat/) on October 16, 2026: revenue of RMB 265.0–270.0 billion, up 726–742% from a year earlier, and net profit of RMB 131.0–132.5 billion against a RMB 5.28 billion loss in the same period of 2025 [1]. The boom is real. The question is whether it is still accelerating, and the arithmetic inside the filing says it is not. ![A stick of CXMT DDR5-5600 memory](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/b02074ea4bda9075.png) *A stick of CXMT DDR5-5600. China's largest DRAM maker said it earned RMB 131.0-132.5 billion in nine months, but its implied Q3 profit rose just 1-3.9% on 15-20% more sales. (Padgriffin via Wikimedia Commons)* ## The extra sales stopped paying Subtract the reported first half (RMB 150.31 billion revenue, RMB 77.61 billion profit) and the implied third quarter is RMB 114.7–119.7 billion of revenue, up 15–20% from Q2, but only RMB 53.4–54.9 billion of profit, up 1.0–3.9% [1]. Net margin slipped from about 53% in Q2 to about 46% in Q3 [1]. Roughly RMB 15–20 billion of extra sales carried under RMB 2.1 billion of extra profit, about 4 to 10 fen per yuan against more than 50 in Q2 [1]. CXMT gave no reason [1]. One day before the filing, Longsys, a major Chinese memory module maker and a DRAM buyer, said in its own forecast that DRAM and NAND price increases had "narrowed markedly" [1]. A seller and a buyer filed the same message within 48 hours: the shortage is intact, but each quarter lifts prices less [1]. *Chart: **CXMT's Q3 revenue jumped, profit did not** CXMT implied Q3 revenue rose 15-20% from Q2 but net profit rose only 1-3.9%, so net margin fell from about 53% to about 46%. Q3 bars are midpoints of the implied ranges, marked as estimates.* *RMB billions. Q2 figures reported in CXMT's reports via Yicai; Q3 bars are midpoints of the implied ranges (revenue 114.7-119.7, profit 53.4-54.9) from CXMT's nine-month forecast minus its half-year report, marked as estimates. [1]* ## The bulls and the glut camp Against that stand the shortage bulls. Dell CEO Michael Dell says the shortage of HBM (high-bandwidth memory, the stacked chips used beside AI GPUs) and ordinary DRAM is "gonna get worse" in 2027 and could persist up to four years, with $95 billion of back-ordered AI servers waiting on memory at Dell [5]. Smartkarma, an independent equity research house, [forecasts a record SK hynix quarter](https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sk-hynix-000660-ks-3q26-preview-earnings-intact-stock-down-28-buy-ahead-of-the-result-28-oct) and calls the 28% October share fall a buy at 4.8x FY27 earnings [4]. Counterpoint puts CXMT at [10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2](https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/122414), up from 4% a year earlier, still behind [Samsung](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/samsung)'s 38%, [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix)'s 25% and [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron)'s 24% [2]. *Chart: **CXMT reached 10% of global DRAM revenue, up from 4% a year earlier** Ranked bar chart of Q2 2026 global DRAM revenue share: Samsung 38%, SK hynix 25%, Micron 24%, CXMT 10%.* *Share of global DRAM revenue, second quarter 2026, per Counterpoint Research figures reported by Bloomingbit. [2]* [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) [cut its Kospi target 25%](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/articles/goldman-sachs-cuts-kospi-target-092052012.html) on October 25, saying current semiconductor valuations imply a 65% earnings decline in 2027, which it called overly pessimistic [6]. CXMT's announcement of 4F² (its new DRAM cell design, which shrinks the memory cell about a third below today's standard) already cut Samsung 17.8% and SK hynix 24.3% in the week of October 12–16; Rosenblatt, a US brokerage, [calls the cell a "paper tiger"](https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/18/cxmt-sees-third-quarter-revenue-surging-nearly-600-percent) [3]. ## The audit starts Tuesday SK hynix reports October 28, Samsung and [Sandisk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sandisk) report October 29, CXMT's formal report is due by October 31 [1]. If their conventional DRAM and NAND pricing still rises at the old rates, CXMT's flat quarter is a cost story. If the commentary echoes "narrowing," the fade is global, the glut case would rest on filings rather than anyone's forecast, and contracted floors like Sandisk's pricing guarantees become the template [1]. That pricing lift is the same money [our October 24 piece](https://theinference.org/article/sk-hynix-killed-solidigm-s-ipo-us-nand-fab-has-no-named-funding-plan-and-dalian-s-license-ends-december-31) flagged as the funding source for SK hynix's US capacity build; whether it fades decides who pays for that fab [1]. ## Takeaway CXMT's implied Q3 shows 15-20% more revenue carrying 1-4% more profit as net margin slid from about 53% to 46%, and a supplier's filing says price rises are narrowing; SK hynix's October 28 results show whether the fade is one company's costs or the cycle's first crack. ## Sources 1. [sotkn.com, CXMT: RMB131B nine-month profit, but Q3 barely tops Q2, 17 Oct 2026](https://www.sotkn.com/catalyst/cxmt-q3-2026-131b-nine-month-profit-q3-flat/) 2. [Bloomingbit, China's CXMT Sees Q3 Revenue as High as $16.7 Billion, Expands DRAM Share to 10%, 18 Oct 2026](https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/122414) 3. [Sedaily, CXMT Sees Third-Quarter Revenue Surging Nearly 600 Percent, 18 Oct 2026](https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/18/cxmt-sees-third-quarter-revenue-surging-nearly-600-percent) 4. [Smartkarma, SK Hynix (000660 KS) 3Q26 Preview: Earnings Intact, Stock Down 28%, 22 Oct 2026](https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sk-hynix-000660-ks-3q26-preview-earnings-intact-stock-down-28-buy-ahead-of-the-result-28-oct) 5. [Wccftech, Michael Dell Predicts The Memory Shortage Is Only Gonna Get Worse In 2027, 18 Oct 2026](https://wccftech.com/michael-dell-memory-shortage-ai-servers-gonna-get-worse-dell-stock/) 6. [Yahoo Finance/Investing.com, Goldman Sachs cuts Kospi target by 25% amid AI stock selloff, 25 Oct 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/articles/goldman-sachs-cuts-kospi-target-092052012.html) --- CXMT's profit rose just 1% to 4% on 15% to 20% more sales; SK hynix reports October 28 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-s-profit-rose-just-1-to-4-on-15-to-20-more-sales-sk-hynix-reports-october-28