--- title: "CXMT Starts Mass-Producing Cheaper DRAM as Rivals Bet the Shortage Lasts to 2030" description: "Days after data showed CXMT at 9.5% of global DRAM revenue with the industry's best operating margin, the Chinese maker put a fifth-generation platform into volume production. Micron's 30 September report is the shortage story's first test." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-09-21T20:53:50.400Z modified: 2026-09-21T20:53:50.400Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-starts-mass-producing-cheaper-dram-as-rivals-bet-the-shortage-lasts-to-2030 language: en keywords: "DRAM, Memory, CXMT, Semiconductors, Micron, SK hynix" --- # CXMT Starts Mass-Producing Cheaper DRAM as Rivals Bet the Shortage Lasts to 2030 > Days after data showed CXMT at 9.5% of global DRAM revenue with the industry's best operating margin, the Chinese maker put a fifth-generation platform into volume production. Micron's 30 September report is the shortage story's first test. ## DRAM's new fourth player ships its fifth generation At the World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei on Sunday, 20 September, CXMT said its fifth-generation DRAM platform, G5, has entered mass production, alongside [two 24-gigabit LPDDR5X chips built on it](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/09/21/news-cxmt-g5-dram-enters-mass-production-with-50-higher-dies-per-wafer-saqp-enables-11-95nm-half-pitch/) [1][2]. CXMT is China's largest memory maker and now the world's fourth-largest DRAM maker by revenue [1][3]. The named buyers are phone brands: Nubia, [Xiaomi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/xiaomi) and Transsion [1]. The process shrinks the tightest feature in the memory cell to 11.95 nanometres using quadruple patterning, which the company says brings it close to the 10-nanometre-class platforms Samsung and SK Hynix already run in volume, with at least 50% more dies per wafer and a lower cost per chip [1][2]. ## Scarcity to 2030 is the priced case The bull case rests on two assumptions already in the prices. SK Hynix, holder of roughly half the high-bandwidth-memory market, sees no supply-demand balance before 2030, and [its board has approved $38.30 billion of fab investment through 2031](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-board-approves-38-bln-investments-south-koreas-yongin-cheongju-chip-2026-08-07/) [5][6]. [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)'s finance chief [calls memory pricing "extreme" and "headed even higher into next year,"](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-says-memory-pricing-turned-140002011.html) and has guided gross margin down to a 71–72% floor while the bill lands [7]. [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) cleared a $1 trillion valuation this year at 6.6 times forward earnings, and [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) more than doubled its target to $1,050 [5]. The complex rallied into the news: Friday's close put Micron up 3.9% and SanDisk up 11% [3]. ## CXMT grew almost twice as fast as the market The margin transfer The Inference traced in ["Memory Is Eating the AI Boom"](https://theinference.org/article/memory-is-eating-the-ai-boom) now has a challenger with production dates. CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue [reached 9.5% in the second quarter](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10866656), up from 7.6%, on revenue up 99.3% sequentially, in a market that itself grew 59.5% to $154.7 billion [3][4]. The growth is no longer only cheap phone chips. CXMT's server DRAM revenue passed its mobile revenue for the first time, and [its 82% operating margin topped Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2026/09/11/KMSOUTO6SNEPFO76V2HJJ45B34/) [4][8]. *Chart: Bar chart of Q2 2026 global DRAM revenue share: Samsung 39.4%, SK Hynix 24.9%, Micron 23.3%, CXMT 9.5%* *Fourth, and climbing: CXMT took 9.5% of global DRAM revenue in Q2 2026, up from 7.6% a quarter earlier. [3][4]* ## Phones, not HBM, for now The bulls have a fair answer: CXMT's new parts are LPDDR5X for handsets, not the HBM that carries the AI premium, and Samsung's and SK Hynix's inventories sit below 10 days [2][4]. Citi still cut its Micron target to $1,150 on possible 2027 price softening [5]. ## 30 September is the first reading [Micron reports fiscal Q4 on 30 September](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidia-sk-hynix-send-strong-011700488.html) with high-bandwidth memory sold out for 2026 [5]. Watch two lines: whether CXMT's server share keeps climbing, and whether contract prices keep rising, since TrendForce already sees third-quarter increases slowing to 13–18% [4]. The paying side has names: Nvidia's guided margin floor is the AI builders absorbing the bill and passing part of it forward, and TrendForce reports PC and smartphone makers already struggle to absorb further increases [7][4]. Whoever signs long contracts at today's prices carries the risk if CXMT's cheaper capacity turns the cycle. Every point of share CXMT takes is a point the shortage story has to buy back. ## Takeaway CXMT is no longer a future threat to the memory shortage, it is a producing one. Its G5 platform is in volume production with a claimed cost edge, its server revenue now tops mobile, and its 82% margin leads the industry. The bull case for Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron rests on scarcity lasting to 2030 and on CXMT staying out of HBM. Micron's 30 September report is the first hard reading on whether cheaper Chinese capacity turns the cycle. ## Sources 1. [South China Morning Post (via MSN), "China's CXMT touts new chip manufacturing platform as close to 'world's most advanced'", 20 September 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/technology/hardware-and-devices/china-s-cxmt-touts-new-chip-manufacturing-platform-as-close-to-world-s-most-advanced/ar-AA2cBzM2) 2. [TrendForce News, "CXMT G5 DRAM Enters Mass Production with 50%+ Higher Dies Per Wafer; SAQP Enables 11.95nm Half-Pitch", 21 September 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/09/21/news-cxmt-g5-dram-enters-mass-production-with-50-higher-dies-per-wafer-saqp-enables-11-95nm-half-pitch/) 3. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, "MU, SNDK, SKHY Stocks In Focus: Memory Rebound Gains Steam Even As China's CXMT Touts Faster Production", 20 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-sndk-skhy-stocks-focus-020119161.html) 4. [The Herald Business, "Samsung's DRAM share nears 40% as CXMT closes in on 10%", 8 September 2026](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10866656) 5. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "Nvidia, SK Hynix send strong signal to Micron investors", 18 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidia-sk-hynix-send-strong-011700488.html) 6. [Reuters, "SK Hynix board approves $38 bln investments for South Korea's Yongin, Cheongju chip plants", 7 August 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-board-approves-38-bln-investments-south-koreas-yongin-cheongju-chip-2026-08-07/) 7. [Barchart via Yahoo Finance, "Nvidia Says Memory Pricing Has Turned 'Extreme' and Is 'Headed Even Higher Into Next Year'", 5 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-says-memory-pricing-turned-140002011.html) 8. [Chosunbiz, "China's CXMT posts record margin as HBM shift lifts commodity DRAM prices", 11 September 2026](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2026/09/11/KMSOUTO6SNEPFO76V2HJJ45B34/) --- CXMT Starts Mass-Producing Cheaper DRAM as Rivals Bet the Shortage Lasts to 2030 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-starts-mass-producing-cheaper-dram-as-rivals-bet-the-shortage-lasts-to-2030