---
title: "Dell's PC shipments fell 25% and AI-server orders hit $60.9 billion; the stock is up 356% this year"
description: "Dell's PC shipments fell 25% in the third quarter while Wall Street crowned it an AI winner. The server business it pivoted to runs at mid-single-digit operating margins, and the holiday quarter is the test."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Hardware"
published: 2026-10-13T17:10:40.882Z
modified: 2026-10-13T17:10:40.882Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dell-s-pc-shipments-fell-25-and-ai-server-orders-hit-60-9-billion-the-stock-is-up-356-this-year
language: en
keywords: "Dell Technologies, PC Shipments, AI Servers, Semiconductors, Stocks"
---

# Dell's PC shipments fell 25% and AI-server orders hit $60.9 billion; the stock is up 356% this year

> Dell's PC shipments fell 25% in the third quarter while Wall Street crowned it an AI winner. The server business it pivoted to runs at mid-single-digit operating margins, and the holiday quarter is the test.

## A spring call, priced in the third quarter

In the spring, [Dell](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/dell-technologies) chief financial officer David Kennedy made the call: consumer PC units were heading down 18% to 20%, so Dell would lean into AI servers [1]. The third quarter prices that decision. [Preliminary tracker figures from market researcher IDC](https://www.ithinkdiff.com/apple-pc-market-share-q3-2026-idc-mac-shipments/), published October 8, put Dell's PC shipments at 7.6 million units, down 25.0% in a worldwide market that fell 20.1% to 62.7 million, a second straight decline [2][5]. [HP](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/hp) fell harder at 30.9%, Lenovo 22.6%; [Apple](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple) lost only 11.3% and gained share [2].

## The memory crunch emptied the PC shelf

Prices did the damage. [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) analyst Erik Woodring estimates [third-quarter global average selling prices above $1,200](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/hewlett-packard-dell-have-a-pc-problem), nearly 40% above early 2025 [1]. The cause runs through the AI boom itself: Deloitte says the cost of AI server DRAM, the memory in every computer, roughly doubled in the first quarter of 2026 and may quadruple for the full year, a squeeze it does not expect to ease until 2029 [1].

*Chart: **Dell's PC shipments fell 25%, worse than a market down 20%** Bar chart of year-over-year PC shipment changes in Q3 2026: ASUS down 8.6%, Apple down 11.3%, the worldwide market down 20.1%, Lenovo down 22.6%, Dell down 25.0%, HP down 30.9%.*

*Year-over-year change in Q3 2026 PC shipments by vendor, preliminary IDC tracker data published October 8, 2026. [2][5]*

## The offset doubles revenue and thins margin

The same boom pays Dell's bills. [The quarter reported on September 1 set records](https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/dell-stock-price-news-shares-jump-14-on-record-q2-results-as-ai-server-demand-surges-data-details-11788356963938.html): revenue of $47 billion, up 58%; AI server revenue of $16.4 billion; $60.9 billion of fresh AI server orders; a $95 billion backlog [6]. Quarterly revenue has doubled in six quarters [9]. What survives to profit is thinner. Kennedy's stated target for the AI server business is a mid-single-digit operating margin, and [the infrastructure segment's margin fell to 10.5% from 14.8%](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/31/dell-reports-tuesday-and-its-server-margin-is-where-the-ai-memory-bill-finally-reaches-the-stock/) as the AI mix grew [7]. Across the same rack, assembler Dell keeps roughly eight cents of each sales dollar, power and cooling supplier [Vertiv](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vertiv) about 18, chipmaker [Broadcom](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/broadcom) more than 40 [4].

*Chart: **AI servers doubled Dell's quarterly revenue in six quarters** Line chart of Dell's quarterly revenue from 22.2 billion dollars in early 2024 to 47 billion dollars in the quarter ended July 2026, with the jump beginning in the quarter ended January 2026.*

*Dell Technologies quarterly revenue in US dollars, fiscal quarters ended May 2024 through July 2026, from its SEC filings. [9]*

## Wall Street bought the server story anyway

On October 8, the day IDC published, tech analyst Dan Ives [added Dell to his AI 30 list](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62265293/dan-ives-updates-ai-30-adds-dell-spcx-while-dropping-orcl-and-pega-ahead-of-ives-rebalance) at Yorkville Ives, dropping [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle) and Pegasystems [3]. [The stock is up 356% this year](https://theinference.org/article/dell-is-up-347-as-its-192-billion-guide-passes-the-memory-bill-to-customers-micron-sees-tightness-to-2028) [3]. The Street's consensus is a Moderate Buy with an average target of $598.20, barely 4% above the market [8]. Woodring rates Dell equal weight at $499 and expects it to hold up better than HP and Acer, which lean cheaper [1].

## The holiday quarter keeps score

Woodring forecasts fourth-quarter PC shipments down 28% and calendar 2027 down another 11%, seven points below consensus [1]. Kennedy has guided to a sequential improvement in the infrastructure margin [7]. The next earnings print, set against IDC's fourth-quarter tracker, shows whether repricing outruns memory inflation while the PC business shrinks into the holidays. The memory crunch that emptied Dell's PC shelves is the same one filling its backlog, and the margin line decides what that backlog is worth.

## Takeaway

Dell's AI server pivot doubled revenue but thinned margins; the holiday quarter decides whether the $60.9 billion order book is worth the memory bill.

## Sources

1. [TheStreet, "Hewlett Packard, Dell have a PC price problem that's hitting customers hard", 10 October 2026](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/hewlett-packard-dell-have-a-pc-problem)
2. [iThinkDifferent, "Apple Gains PC Market Share in Q3 2026 Even as Mac Shipments Fall 11.3%" (IDC preliminary tracker), 10 October 2026](https://www.ithinkdiff.com/apple-pc-market-share-q3-2026-idc-mac-shipments/)
3. [Benzinga, "Dan Ives Updates AI 30: Adds DELL, SPCX While Dropping ORCL and PEGA Ahead of IVES Rebalance", 9 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62265293/dan-ives-updates-ai-30-adds-dell-spcx-while-dropping-orcl-and-pega-ahead-of-ives-rebalance)
4. [Ainvest, "Vertiv, Dell, and Broadcom: How AI's Data Center Capex Splits", 10 October 2026](https://www.ainvest.com/news/vertiv-dell-broadcom-ai-data-center-capex-splits-2610/)
5. [KitGuru, "IDC report shows worldwide PC shipments dropped 20.1% in Q3 2026", 11 October 2026](https://www.kitguru.net/desktop-pc/joao-silva/idc-report-shows-worldwide-pc-shipments-dropped-20-1-in-q3-2026/)
6. [LiveMint, "Dell stock price news: Shares jump 14% on record Q2 results as AI server demand surges", 2 September 2026](https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/dell-stock-price-news-shares-jump-14-on-record-q2-results-as-ai-server-demand-surges-data-details-11788356963938.html)
7. [The Motley Fool, "Dell Reports Tuesday, and Its Server Margin Is Where the AI Memory Bill Finally Reaches the Stock", 31 August 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/31/dell-reports-tuesday-and-its-server-margin-is-where-the-ai-memory-bill-finally-reaches-the-stock/)
8. [TipRanks, "Dan Ives Adds SpaceX and Dell to AI 30 List on Infrastructure Shift, Drops 2 Stocks", 9 October 2026](https://www.tipranks.com/news/dan-ives-adds-spacex-and-dell-to-his-ai-30-list)
9. [Dell Technologies, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001571996)


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Dell's PC shipments fell 25% and AI-server orders hit $60.9 billion; the stock is up 356% this year — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dell-s-pc-shipments-fell-25-and-ai-server-orders-hit-60-9-billion-the-stock-is-up-356-this-year