---
title: "戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，AI服务器订单达609亿美元；年内股价累计上涨356%"
description: "第三季度戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，华尔街却将其捧为AI赢家。公司转型押注的服务器业务营业利润率只有中个位数，假日季才是真正的考验。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Hardware"
published: 2026-10-13T17:10:40.882Z
modified: 2026-10-13T17:10:40.882Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dell-s-pc-shipments-fell-25-and-ai-server-orders-hit-60-9-billion-the-stock-is-up-356-this-year/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Dell Technologies, PC Shipments, AI Servers, Semiconductors, Stocks"
---

# 戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，AI服务器订单达609亿美元；年内股价累计上涨356%

> 第三季度戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，华尔街却将其捧为AI赢家。公司转型押注的服务器业务营业利润率只有中个位数，假日季才是真正的考验。

## 春季的判断，第三季度给出定价

今年春季，[戴尔](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/dell-technologies)首席财务官戴维·肯尼迪（David Kennedy）做出了判断：消费类PC出货量将下滑18%至20%，戴尔将因此加码AI服务器[1]。第三季度为这项决策给出了定价。市场研究机构IDC于10月8日发布的[初步追踪数据](https://www.ithinkdiff.com/apple-pc-market-share-q3-2026-idc-mac-shipments/)显示，戴尔当季PC出货量为760万台，下滑25.0%；全球市场出货量下降20.1%至6270万台，连续第二个季度下滑[2][5]。[惠普](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/hp)跌幅更深，达30.9%，联想下滑22.6%；[苹果](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple)仅下滑11.3%，市场份额不降反升[2]。

## 内存紧缺掏空了PC货架

造成冲击的是价格。[摩根士丹利](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley)分析师埃里克·伍德林（Erik Woodring）估计，[第三季度全球平均售价已超过1200美元](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/hewlett-packard-dell-have-a-pc-problem)，比2025年初高出近40%[1]。根源正是AI热潮本身：德勤表示，AI服务器所用DRAM——每台电脑都离不开的内存——成本在2026年第一季度大约翻了一番，全年可能涨至四倍；德勤预计，这轮供应紧张要到2029年才会缓解[1]。

*Chart: **戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，超过市场整体20%的跌幅** 2026年第三季度各厂商PC出货量同比变化柱状图：华硕下滑8.6%，苹果下滑11.3%，全球市场下滑20.1%，联想下滑22.6%，戴尔下滑25.0%，惠普下滑30.9%。*

*2026年第三季度各厂商PC出货量同比变化，数据来自IDC于2026年10月8日发布的初步追踪数据。 [2][5]*

## 对冲效应：收入翻倍，利润率变薄

同一股热潮，也在为戴尔付账。[9月1日发布的季度财报创下多项纪录](https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/dell-stock-price-news-shares-jump-14-on-record-q2-results-as-ai-server-demand-surges-data-details-11788356963938.html)：营收470亿美元，增长58%；AI服务器收入164亿美元；新增AI服务器订单609亿美元；在手订单950亿美元[6]。季度营收在六个季度里翻了一番[9]。但最终落到利润上的部分更薄。肯尼迪为AI服务器业务公开设定的目标是中个位数的营业利润率，而随着AI业务占比上升，[基础设施部门利润率已从14.8%降至10.5%](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/31/dell-reports-tuesday-and-its-server-margin-is-where-the-ai-memory-bill-finally-reaches-the-stock/)[7]。在同一排机柜里，负责组装的戴尔每1美元销售收入约能留下8美分，电源与散热供应商[维谛技术](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vertiv)约18美分，芯片制造商[博通](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/broadcom)则超过40美分[4]。

*Chart: **AI服务器让戴尔季度营收在六个季度内翻倍** 戴尔季度营收折线图：从2024年初的222亿美元升至截至2026年7月财季的470亿美元，跃升始于截至2026年1月的财季。*

*戴尔科技各财季营收（美元），涵盖截至2024年5月至2026年7月的财季，数据来自公司向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件。 [9]*

## 华尔街仍为服务器故事买单

10月8日，也就是IDC发布数据的当天，Yorkville Ives科技分析师丹·艾夫斯[将戴尔纳入“AI 30”榜单](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62265293/dan-ives-updates-ai-30-adds-dell-spcx-while-dropping-orcl-and-pega-ahead-of-ives-rebalance)，同时剔除了[甲骨文](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle)和Pegasystems[3]。[戴尔股价今年以来已上涨356%](https://theinference.org/article/dell-is-up-347-as-its-192-billion-guide-passes-the-memory-bill-to-customers-micron-sees-tightness-to-2028)[3]。华尔街对戴尔的共识评级为“适度买入”（Moderate Buy），平均目标价598.20美元，较市价仅有约4%的上涨空间[8]。伍德林给予戴尔“持股观望”（Equal-weight）评级，目标价499美元，并预计戴尔的抗跌性要好于主打低价的惠普和宏碁[1]。

## 假日季见分晓

伍德林预计，第四季度PC出货量将下滑28%，2027自然年再降11%，较共识预期低7个百分点[1]。肯尼迪给出的业绩指引是，基础设施部门利润率将环比改善[7]。把下一份财报与IDC第四季度追踪数据放在一起看，便能看出在PC业务步入假日季、持续萎缩之际，调价能否跑赢内存涨价。掏空戴尔PC货架的，与填满其在手订单的，是同一场内存紧缺；而利润率这条线，决定着这些在手订单究竟值多少钱。

## Takeaway

转向AI服务器让戴尔收入翻倍，却摊薄了利润率；假日季将决定这609亿美元在手订单是否抵得过内存账单。

## Sources

1. [TheStreet, "Hewlett Packard, Dell have a PC price problem that's hitting customers hard", 10 October 2026](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/hewlett-packard-dell-have-a-pc-problem)
2. [iThinkDifferent, "Apple Gains PC Market Share in Q3 2026 Even as Mac Shipments Fall 11.3%" (IDC preliminary tracker), 10 October 2026](https://www.ithinkdiff.com/apple-pc-market-share-q3-2026-idc-mac-shipments/)
3. [Benzinga, "Dan Ives Updates AI 30: Adds DELL, SPCX While Dropping ORCL and PEGA Ahead of IVES Rebalance", 9 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62265293/dan-ives-updates-ai-30-adds-dell-spcx-while-dropping-orcl-and-pega-ahead-of-ives-rebalance)
4. [Ainvest, "Vertiv, Dell, and Broadcom: How AI's Data Center Capex Splits", 10 October 2026](https://www.ainvest.com/news/vertiv-dell-broadcom-ai-data-center-capex-splits-2610/)
5. [KitGuru, "IDC report shows worldwide PC shipments dropped 20.1% in Q3 2026", 11 October 2026](https://www.kitguru.net/desktop-pc/joao-silva/idc-report-shows-worldwide-pc-shipments-dropped-20-1-in-q3-2026/)
6. [LiveMint, "Dell stock price news: Shares jump 14% on record Q2 results as AI server demand surges", 2 September 2026](https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/dell-stock-price-news-shares-jump-14-on-record-q2-results-as-ai-server-demand-surges-data-details-11788356963938.html)
7. [The Motley Fool, "Dell Reports Tuesday, and Its Server Margin Is Where the AI Memory Bill Finally Reaches the Stock", 31 August 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/31/dell-reports-tuesday-and-its-server-margin-is-where-the-ai-memory-bill-finally-reaches-the-stock/)
8. [TipRanks, "Dan Ives Adds SpaceX and Dell to AI 30 List on Infrastructure Shift, Drops 2 Stocks", 9 October 2026](https://www.tipranks.com/news/dan-ives-adds-spacex-and-dell-to-his-ai-30-list)
9. [Dell Technologies, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001571996)


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戴尔PC出货量下滑25%，AI服务器订单达609亿美元；年内股价累计上涨356% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dell-s-pc-shipments-fell-25-and-ai-server-orders-hit-60-9-billion-the-stock-is-up-356-this-year/zh-CN