--- title: "DHL raises its 2026 EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion as Germany's 95-cent letter goes to €1.15" description: "DHL raised its 2026 group EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion on the back of DHL Express, but the one division it did not raise is the one Berlin is now repricing: the VAT shelter on business mail ends, the regulator trimmed the parcel increase, and the 95-cent letter is about to cost €1.15." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-20T21:17:12.501Z modified: 2026-10-20T21:17:12.501Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dhl-raises-its-2026-ebit-target-to-more-than-7-0-billion-as-germany-s-95-cent-letter-goes-to-1-15 language: en keywords: "DHL, Logistics, Germany, Postal Rates, Earnings Guidance" --- # DHL raises its 2026 EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion as Germany's 95-cent letter goes to €1.15 > DHL raised its 2026 group EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion on the back of DHL Express, but the one division it did not raise is the one Berlin is now repricing: the VAT shelter on business mail ends, the regulator trimmed the parcel increase, and the 95-cent letter is about to cost €1.15. On October 16 [DHL](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/dhl) Group [raised its full-year 2026 guidance](https://group.dhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2026/dhl-group-raises-full-year-2026-earnings-guidance.html) in a single stroke: reported group EBIT now expected above €7.0 billion instead of €6.5 billion, division EBIT above €6.4 billion instead of €5.9 billion, free cash flow above €3.2 billion and capex around €3.6 billion [1]. Third-quarter revenue came in near €22.6 billion, up more than 12%, with group EBIT of about €1,710 million against €1,477 million a year earlier [1]. The stock, on the dpa wire, "struggled" on the news [5]. The reason sat in the same release. *Chart: **The raise came from Express; Post & Parcel Germany's EBIT fell 31%** Column chart of Q3 EBIT by DHL division for 2026 and 2025 in millions of euros, showing Express, Global Forwarding and Supply Chain up while Post & Parcel Germany and eCommerce fall.* *The raise came from Express; Post & Parcel Germany's EBIT fell 31% [1][4]* ## The lift came from Express, not Bonn DHL Express earned about €1,035 million in the quarter against €692 million, helped by yield measures and operating leverage, but also by roughly €100 million of "limited support" from capacity constraints in the air freight market, a scarcity DHL does not control [1]. That single division supplies more than half the group's EBIT [1]. Post & Parcel Germany, the division the release did not raise, earned about €150 million against €218 million a year earlier, a fall of roughly a third; its full-year target was left untouched at more than €900 million [1]. ## Berlin is repricing the letter Three German decisions now press on that €900 million number. The cabinet approved [ending the VAT exemption on business mail](https://www.reuters.com/business/germany-moves-end-vat-exemption-business-mail-2026-10-14/), the letters banks and insurers send; the treasury expects about €115 million a year from Deutsche Post, and the company calls the obligation unlawful [3][5]. The regulator [proposed letter increases of 20.35%](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/german-regulator-gives-deutsche-post-scope-to-hike-letter-prices/ar-AA2e3vFh) and private parcel increases of 10.72%, deliberately below what Deutsche Post requested; comments close October 30 and the final decision lands in November for 2027 and 2028 rates [6]. Letter volume has fallen from 16.9 billion in 2005 to under 9.4 billion in 2025, so the division needs price to hold earnings up [7]. Deutsche Post [answered on October 20](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/economy/deutsche-post-plans-hikes-to-german-letter-postage-rates-to-offset-rising-costs/ar-AA2fEF2R): from January the standard letter goes to €1.15 from €0.95, subject to approval, with board member Nikola Hagleitner saying price increases are "unavoidable" without government support [8]. The regulator's 20.35% margin implies €1.14, so the announced price sits at the very top of the band [6][7][8]. *Chart: **DHL lifted every 2026 number in one release except the German division** Range chart of DHL Group's full-year 2026 guidance before and after the October 16 raise, in billions of euros, for group EBIT, division EBIT and free cash flow.* *DHL lifted every 2026 number in one release except the German division [1][4]* ## Who carries the raised guide The counterpoint is real: the letter hike, the eased force majeure delivery rule in the same bill and the €1.15 price all help Post & Parcel Germany, and even the VAT change may be passed to senders [5][8]. But the group's new €7 billion guide is not underwritten by Germany. It is underwritten by air freight pricing DHL does not set, while the one division Berlin touches is the one DHL left unraised. The full Q3 report lands November 5; the regulator decides in November; the mid-term guide is reviewed in March [1][6]. ## Takeaway DHL's €7.0 billion guide is Express's work; the German division got no new target, just a repricing regulator and a €1.15 letter. ## Sources 1. [Multimodal, "DHL figures up: reported Group EBIT is now expected to exceed EUR 7bn", 17 October 2026](https://www.multimodal.org.uk/article/dhl-figures-up-reported-group-ebit-is-now-expected-to-exceed-eur-7bn) 3. [Reuters, "Germany moves to end VAT exemption for business mail", 14 October 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/germany-moves-end-vat-exemption-business-mail-2026-10-14/) 4. [DHL Group, "Preliminary results: DHL Group raises full-year 2026 earnings guidance", 16 October 2026](https://group.dhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2026/dhl-group-raises-full-year-2026-earnings-guidance.html) 5. [dpa-AFX via MarketScreener, "DHL: German government strips Deutsche Post of tax advantage", 14 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/dhl-german-government-strips-deutsche-post-of-tax-advantage-ce785dd2df8af322) 6. [Reuters, "German regulator gives Deutsche Post scope to hike letter prices", 12 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/german-regulator-gives-deutsche-post-scope-to-hike-letter-prices/ar-AA2e3vFh) 7. [dpa via The Local Germany, "German postage prices expected to increase by 20 percent next year", 12 October 2026](https://www.thelocal.de/20261012/german-postage-prices-expected-to-increase-by-20-percent-next-year) 8. [Reuters, "Deutsche Post plans hikes to German letter postage rates to offset rising costs", 20 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/economy/deutsche-post-plans-hikes-to-german-letter-postage-rates-to-offset-rising-costs/ar-AA2fEF2R) --- DHL raises its 2026 EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion as Germany's 95-cent letter goes to €1.15 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dhl-raises-its-2026-ebit-target-to-more-than-7-0-billion-as-germany-s-95-cent-letter-goes-to-1-15