---
title: "Dominion Energy's offshore wind fell from $83 to $62 per megawatt-hour, and certificates did it"
description: "The largest offshore wind farm in the United States is 85% built, but the cost-per-megawatt-hour drop in Dominion's third-quarter disclosure came from certificate prices, not construction, and the schedule has already spent part of its contingency."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-11-02T17:05:23.891Z
modified: 2026-11-02T17:05:23.891Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dominion-energy-s-offshore-wind-fell-from-83-to-62-per-megawatt-hour-and-certificates-did-it
language: en
keywords: "Dominion Energy, Offshore Wind, NextEra, Virginia, Utilities, Renewable Energy"
---

# Dominion Energy's offshore wind fell from $83 to $62 per megawatt-hour, and certificates did it

> The largest offshore wind farm in the United States is 85% built, but the cost-per-megawatt-hour drop in Dominion's third-quarter disclosure came from certificate prices, not construction, and the schedule has already spent part of its contingency.

## The 44th turbine is up, and the press saw speed where the calendar shows drift

The trade press wrote up last week's milestone as momentum: 44 of 176 turbines now stand at Coastal Virginia [Offshore Wind](https://www.offshorewind.biz/2026/11/02/44-turbines-up-at-largest-us-offshore-wind-farm), the 2.6-gigawatt project off Virginia Beach, with more than 640 megawatts already generating and the build called roughly 85% complete [1][2][3]. The quarter itself was strong, [operating earnings of $1.28 per share, up 20.8% year over year](https://news.dominionenergy.com/press-releases/press-releases/2026/Dominion-Energy-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx), but the wind farm is not the earnings story [3][4]. It is the bill story.

The company's own calendar says something quieter. The 176th and final turbine is due at the end of 2027, a date [Dominion](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/dominion-energy) pushed out earlier this year from early 2027, citing extra allowance for weather, vessel maintenance, loadout operations and extended jacking rather than any change in the two-days-per-turbine installation rate [1].

![Two large yellow steel jacket foundations standing on the quayside in Esbjerg harbour, Denmark, with a passenger ferry passing in the foreground](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/933ce7bb4a306cc0.jpg)

*Jacket foundations built for Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind in Esbjerg harbour, Denmark, in September 2024. Foundations and turbines reach the project off Virginia Beach by loadout, roughly 33 of them at four days each on Dominion's own arithmetic. (Thomas Dahlstrøm Nielsen)*

## The customers are still funding $1.5 billion of it

The capital budget holds at $11.65 billion, including $123 million of unused contingency [2][3]. About $10.1 billion was spent through September 30, leaving roughly $1.5 billion, and Dominion funds about $800 million of that after the contribution of Stonepeak, the infrastructure investor that took a 50% noncontrolling stake in the project in October 2024 in a deal worth about $2.6 billion to Dominion [3][6]. The rest of the bill reaches Virginia households through rates, which is why the per-megawatt-hour figure carries so much weight.

*Chart: **$123 million of contingency left against $1.5 billion of cost still to come** Bar chart of the CVOW capital budget at 11.65 billion dollars, 10.1 billion spent through September 30, 1.5 billion remaining to spend, and only 123 million of unused contingency, highlighting how small the cushion is against the remaining work.*

*US dollars, billions, as reported by Dominion Energy on October 30, 2026: capital budget of $11.65 billion including $123 million of unused contingency, about $10.1 billion invested through September 30, 2026. Sources: Benzinga earnings call transcript (2), Zacks via TradingView (3). [2][3]*

## The cheaper megawatt hour did not get cheaper

Here is the part the headline number hides. Dominion reported the project's levelized cost of energy, the per-megawatt-hour figure used to argue customer value, falling from $83 to $62 [1]. The gross generation cost stayed flat at $100 [1].

## The certificate price is a market number the company will not defend

The entire drop is renewable energy certificate revenue: buyers pay for the clean attribute of CVOW's power, and Dominion credits those sales against the cost [1][2]. Chief Financial Officer Steven Ridge said certificate supply is tightening because Virginia requires a large share to come from in-state resources, and he declined to call the price sustainable, noting it has moved up and down [2]. An analyst on the call pegged the price at $38, which matches the $100-minus-$62 arithmetic; the company did not confirm the figure [2]. The $21 gain is the market's opinion of a certificate, not a cheaper turbine [2].

*Chart: **The reported cost fell $21 while the gross cost of the power stayed at $100** Column chart comparing two measures across two updates: CVOW's gross generation cost holds at 100 dollars per megawatt hour in both, while the reported levelized cost falls from 83 to 62 dollars per megawatt hour.*

*US dollars per megawatt hour. Dominion Energy's gross generation cost for Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind is unchanged at $100, while renewable energy certificate revenue is netted against it, cutting the reported levelized cost of energy from $83 to $62 between the prior update and the October 30, 2026 third-quarter update. Sources: Offshore Wind (1), Benzinga earnings call transcript (2). [1][2]*

## The cushion is thinner than it was last quarter

Ridge's own arithmetic, [offered on the call](https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62746474/dominion-energy-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript): over the last three months, 91 calendar days, 14 lost to weather and 36 to maintenance on Charybdis, the Jones Act-compliant installation vessel, left 13 turbines installed in about 41 available days, or 3.2 calendar days per turbine [2]. There are 425 calendar days left to install the remaining 132 turbines, which is also 3.2 days per turbine [2].

## Loadouts leave 30 to 95 days of slack for weather and harder sites

About 33 port loadouts at four days each consume another 130 days, leaving between 30 and 95 days for weather, maintenance and the harder locations [2]. The counterweight is real: installation time has improved from an average of 69 hours for the first 10 turbines to 45 for the next 25 and 38 for the most recent nine, and the third offshore substation should be energized by year-end [2]. But contingency is money as well as time, and $123 million sits against $1.5 billion of cost still to come [2][3].

*Chart: **Installation time has fallen from 69 hours a turbine to 38** Column chart of average installation time per turbine in the third quarter: 69 hours for the first 10 turbines, 45 hours for the next 25, and 38 hours for the most recent nine.*

*Average hours to install one turbine, in order of installation, as reported by Dominion Energy chief financial officer Steven Ridge on the third-quarter 2026 earnings call. Sources: Benzinga earnings call transcript (2). [2]*

## The deadline underneath all of it

CVOW carries Dominion's affordability case: the company projects about $5 billion of customer fuel savings over the project's first 10 years, and its Integrated Resource Plan shows the typical residential bill rising from about $180 today to nearly $285 by 2046 under its preferred plan, a 57% increase [2][5][7]. That is against [a regulator-required calculation of more than $458 by 2046](https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/dominion-virginia-electric-bill-increase-projections/), above 150%, which Dominion disputes [2][5][7].

The demand side is not in doubt, with roughly 54 gigawatts of data center capacity in contracting stages in Virginia, up 13% since December [2][3]. [The merger with NextEra goes to evidentiary hearings on November 17](https://theinference.org/article/virginia-puts-nextera-s-67-billion-dominion-takeover-on-trial), and [the Virginia State Corporation Commission's final order](https://theinference.org/article/nextera-s-67-billion-dominion-buy-gets-a-virginia-ruling-january-11-on-who-pays-ai-s-power-bill) is due January 11, 2027 [2].

## What decides this

Watch three readings. The 45th turbine and the quarterly levelized-cost update, where certificate prices hold the savings math together or do not. The contingency line, where anything above $123 million of overrun starts reaching customers directly. And the January 11 order, which rules on whether the [NextEra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nextera-energy) combination harms Virginia customers while CVOW's cost recovery is still open. The wind farm did not get cheaper. The certificate on it did. The next two quarters show which of the two was the durable number.

## Takeaway

Dominion's Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind is $21 a megawatt hour cheaper in the third-quarter update only because renewable energy certificates now sell for more; the gross cost of the power is still $100. With $123 million of contingency against $1.5 billion of work left and 132 turbines to install, the certificate price and the schedule are the two numbers the next two quarters test.

## Sources

1. [Offshore Wind, 44 Turbines Up at Largest US Offshore Wind Farm, 2 November 2026](https://www.offshorewind.biz/2026/11/02/44-turbines-up-at-largest-us-offshore-wind-farm)
2. [Benzinga, Dominion Energy Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript, 31 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62746474/dominion-energy-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript)
3. [Zacks via TradingView, Dominion Energy's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y, 2 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:2814f658e094b:0-dominion-energy-s-q3-earnings-top-estimates-revenues-increase-y-y/)
4. [Dominion Energy, Dominion Energy Announces Third-Quarter 2026 Results, 30 October 2026](https://news.dominionenergy.com/press-releases/press-releases/2026/Dominion-Energy-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
5. [The Cool Down, Dominion Energy disputes calculation projecting $180 monthly electric bills could top $458 by 2046, 1 November 2026](https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/dominion-virginia-electric-bill-increase-projections/)
6. [POWER Magazine, Sonal Patel, Against the Wind: Inside the Completion of America's Largest Offshore Wind Plant, 1 July 2026](https://www.powermag.com/against-the-wind-inside-the-completion-of-americas-largest-offshore-wind-plant/)
7. [WTVR CBS 6, Taylor Locke, Dominion projects electric bills could rise more than 57% over next 20 years, 26 October 2026](https://www.wtvr.com/news/local-news/dominion-bill-increase-projection-oct-26-2026)


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Dominion Energy's offshore wind fell from $83 to $62 per megawatt-hour, and certificates did it — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/dominion-energy-s-offshore-wind-fell-from-83-to-62-per-megawatt-hour-and-certificates-did-it