--- title: "Eli Lilly's 79% ovarian cancer response rate came from a dose its Phase 3 won't use" description: "Lilly's headline response rate at ESMO was measured at 4 mg/kg; the Phase 3 runs 3 mg/kg, and the combination result at that dose is unpublished. A day earlier, Genmab posted a positive Phase 3 on the same payload class." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Health" published: 2026-10-24T14:15:01.868Z modified: 2026-10-24T14:15:01.868Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/eli-lilly-s-79-ovarian-cancer-response-rate-came-from-a-dose-its-phase-3-won-t-use language: en keywords: "Eli Lilly, Oncology, Biotechnology, Clinical Trials, Pharmaceuticals" --- # Eli Lilly's 79% ovarian cancer response rate came from a dose its Phase 3 won't use > Lilly's headline response rate at ESMO was measured at 4 mg/kg; the Phase 3 runs 3 mg/kg, and the combination result at that dose is unpublished. A day earlier, Genmab posted a positive Phase 3 on the same payload class. The most-quoted number from today's ESMO cancer congress in Madrid is real, and it is not the number [Eli Lilly](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/eli-lilly) will file. The company [reported on October 24 that sofetabart mipitecan (Sofe-M) plus bevacizumab, an existing cancer medicine, produced a confirmed response in 79% of women with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer and controlled the disease in all of them](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-presents-first-clinical-data-platinum-sensitive-ovarian) [1]. That study tested a 4 mg/kg dose [1]. The Phase 3 program that will support any approval runs 3 mg/kg, and the combination response rate at that dose has not been published [1]. ## The dose is the story Lilly's own dose-selection data explain the switch. In monotherapy testing, severe treatment-related adverse events and dose reductions both fell sharply at the lower dose, while the response rate stayed level [1]. The platinum-sensitive result that made the headlines came from the higher-toxicity arm. It shows what the molecule can do at its most aggressive, not what the filed drug will do. *Chart: **Severe toxicity fell sharply at the dose Lilly took into Phase 3** Column chart comparing Grade 3 or worse treatment-related adverse events and dose reductions at 4 mg/kg versus 3 mg/kg* *Sofe-M monotherapy dose selection; share of patients with Grade 3 or worse treatment-related adverse events, and share needing dose reductions, by dose. Source: Lilly, October 24, 2026. [1]* ## The bar is low, the race is on the clock Sofe-M is an antibody that ferries a poison: it binds folate receptor alpha, a protein sitting on almost all ovarian tumors, and releases the cell-killer exatecan inside [1]. The bar it must clear is modest. After maintenance with PARP inhibitors, the standard follow-on drugs, published real-world data put response to another round of platinum at 41.9% [1]. Genmab, a Danish antibody company, [announced on October 23 that its Phase 3 of rinatabart sesutecan, a conjugate built on the same exatecan payload, met both survival endpoints in the platinum-resistant form of the disease with a 57% lower risk of death](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/genmab-announces-rinatabart-sesutecan-rina-s-demonstrates-statistically-significant-improvement-in-progression-free-survival-and-overall-survival-in-patients-with-platinum-resistant-ovarian-cancer-1036660182), and said it will take the data to regulators [2]. Genmab already lists two Phase 3 trials of the same drug in platinum-sensitive disease [2], and [AbbVie](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/abbvie), whose Elahere is approved in the resistant setting, has its own trial there with primary completion estimated for April [3]. AstraZeneca joined the same race in September [3]. Because the new candidates share a payload class, tumors that resist one may resist the next, so the first approval is worth more than the higher number [3]. ## The money is already in the ground On October 22, Lilly [broke ground on a $5 billion plant in Goochland, Virginia](https://www.12onyourside.com/2026/10/22/eli-lilly-breaks-ground-5-billion-goochland-manufacturing-facility/), more than double the original plan, its first site to carry antibody-drug conjugates from raw ingredient to finished medicine under one roof, with artificial intelligence and machine learning built into operations and completion set for 2030 [4]. It extends the manufacturing spree that includes [the Dutch factory we profiled this month](https://theinference.org/article/eli-lilly-gets-its-3-billion-dutch-factory-katwijk-keeps-the-water-and-gas-bill) [5][5]. [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)'s newly released open protein-design model, RFD4-Proteina, ships to a partner list that does not include Lilly [5]; Lilly's own AI bet is the co-innovation lab with Nvidia announced in January, worth up to $1 billion over five years [5]. *Chart: **Lilly's quarterly revenue has more than doubled in ten quarters** Line chart of Eli Lilly quarterly revenue from Q1 2024 to Q2 2026 rising from 8.8 to 23.0 billion dollars* *Quarterly revenue in billions of dollars. Source: Eli Lilly SEC filings. [7]* ## Obesity pays the bill; December has to justify it Obesity drugs pay for the whole chain, and that revenue line is what [Goldman expects to lift again when Lilly reports on October 29](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/goldman-sachs-resets-eli-lilly-193700366.html) [6][7]. The bank carries the stock at 28 times forward earnings, and the December 7 investor event is where a pipeline beyond obesity has to start justifying them [6]. Treat the 79% as a demo, not a drug. It will be judged at 3 mg/kg, against rivals on the same payload, in a market that pays whoever files first. The quarter on October 29 and the investor day on December 7 are where Lilly's second act has to arrive on time. ## Takeaway Eli Lilly's eye-catching 79% response rate for Sofe-M in ovarian cancer came at a 4 mg/kg dose, but its Phase 3 registration trial is running at 3 mg/kg where combination efficacy is still undisclosed. With Genmab already posting positive Phase 3 survival data on the same exatecan payload, Lilly faces a tight race to prove its oncology pipeline can justify a premium multiple beyond obesity. ## Sources 1. [Eli Lilly and Company, investor release: Lilly presents first clinical data in platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer for its investigational, next-generation, FRα-targeting ADC at ESMO 2026, 24 October 2026](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-presents-first-clinical-data-platinum-sensitive-ovarian) 2. [Genmab A/S company announcement via Markets Insider: Rinatabart Sesutecan (Rina-S) demonstrates statistically significant improvement in PFS and OS in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, 23 October 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/genmab-announces-rinatabart-sesutecan-rina-s-demonstrates-statistically-significant-improvement-in-progression-free-survival-and-overall-survival-in-patients-with-platinum-resistant-ovarian-cancer-1036660182) 3. [Fierce Biotech: ESMO, Lilly touts 79% ADC response rate in competitive ovarian cancer space, 24 October 2026](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/esmo-eli-lilly-touts-79-adc-response-rate-competitive-ovarian-cancer-space) 4. [WWBT 12 On Your Side: Eli Lilly breaks ground on $5 billion Goochland manufacturing facility, 22 October 2026](https://www.12onyourside.com/2026/10/22/eli-lilly-breaks-ground-5-billion-goochland-manufacturing-facility/) 5. [Digital Health News: NVIDIA expands healthcare AI with protein design and cancer treatment partnerships, October 2026](https://www.digitalhealthnews.com/nvidia-expands-healthcare-ai-with-protein-design-and-cancer-treatment-partnerships) 6. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance: Goldman Sachs resets Eli Lilly 12-month stock price target before earnings, 23 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/goldman-sachs-resets-eli-lilly-193700366.html) 7. [Eli Lilly, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 24 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000059478) --- Eli Lilly's 79% ovarian cancer response rate came from a dose its Phase 3 won't use — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/eli-lilly-s-79-ovarian-cancer-response-rate-came-from-a-dose-its-phase-3-won-t-use