--- title: "Exelon asks FERC to break PJM's capacity auction, which cleared at the $325 cap and committed $16.4 billion" description: "The utility carrying the AI boom's load growth asked FERC on November 4 to break PJM's three-year capacity auction. The filing landed the same day the midterms knocked the generator trade down double digits." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-05T15:16:44.620Z modified: 2026-11-05T15:16:44.620Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/exelon-asks-ferc-to-break-pjm-s-capacity-auction-which-cleared-at-the-325-cap-and-committed-16-4-billion language: en keywords: "Regulation, Utilities, Electricity Markets, Data Centers, PJM" --- # Exelon asks FERC to break PJM's capacity auction, which cleared at the $325 cap and committed $16.4 billion > The utility carrying the AI boom's load growth asked FERC on November 4 to break PJM's three-year capacity auction. The filing landed the same day the midterms knocked the generator trade down double digits. ## The charge came the day after the sweep On November 4, Exelon, the utility holding company whose utilities buy and deliver power across PJM's 13-state territory, [filed a complaint at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261104652439/en) arguing that PJM's three-year-forward Base Residual Auction "no longer is just and reasonable" [2]. The filing says the capacity market is "producing high prices without stimulating necessary investment" while customers already face rising bills [1]. [Exelon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/exelon-corporation) wants FERC to order a prompt auction held two months before the delivery year instead, and cites [an expert exhibit by Emma Nicholson of Charles River Associates](https://www.rtoinsider.com/150688-exelon-ask-ferc-prompt-capacity-auction-pjm/) showing a positive correlation between shorter forward periods and smaller changes in peak-load forecasts between the auction and delivery [2]. ## Prices at the cap, sized on a forecast that has since shrunk The prices Exelon is attacking are real. PJM's July auction for the 2028/29 delivery year [cleared at its $325 per megawatt-day price cap and committed $16.4 billion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/12/pjm-market-monitor-says-42-of-forecast-data-center-growth-is-delayed-or-canceled/) [3]. To cover the resulting 6,831-megawatt shortfall, PJM planned a backstop purchase capped at $555 per megawatt-day, about $1.4 billion a year and roughly $21 billion over 15 years [3]. But PJM's own independent market monitor counted 4,017 megawatts of data center load canceled or delayed by September 21, 42% of the data center growth PJM had forecast for those delivery years [3]. Strike it and the gap halves to 3,055 megawatts [3]. *Chart: **Remove the ghost load and PJM's capacity gap is cut in half** Bars showing PJM's 6,831 MW capacity shortfall for 2028/29 shrinking to 3,055 MW after removing canceled or delayed data center load, with a 2,375 MW illustrative half-growth test* *PJM capacity shortfall for the 2028/29 delivery year, in megawatts: the 6,831 MW gap from the July auction; 3,055 MW after the independent market monitor's 4,017 MW count of canceled or delayed data center load (filing to FERC, September 25, 2026); and the monitor's own illustrative test, 2,375 MW, assuming only half of forecast data center growth arrives. Source: Forbes, October 12, 2026. [3]* ## The complication: the regulator already called it a mess Exelon is not the first to doubt the machinery. On September 29 FERC [suspended PJM's backstop plan until February 28, 2027](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-delays-backstop-procurement-ferc-data-center/831751/), sent cost allocation to a hearing with initial briefs due November 13, and opened a docket finding PJM's existing tariff "may be unjust and unreasonable" [3][4]. Chairman Laura Swett wrote that the commission "will not be forced into accepting a deeply flawed, eleventh-hour procurement mechanism with billion-dollar implications for consumers" [4]. ## Both camps own the same trade The generators sit on the winning side of the prices Exelon attacks. [Vistra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vistra) [closed down 14% at $120.29](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-fell-14-texas-election-133542031.html) on November 4, a 52-week low, after Texas elected a governor who campaigned on pausing new data centers, and Constellation fell 8% that morning [5]. Exelon reads like the countertrade. Last week it [beat on earnings](https://247wallst.com/cards/exelon-q3-2026-earnings-exc-01m667mx7v4x7zhm37e0svt14w), $0.87 adjusted EPS against a $0.79 estimate, and holds a $41.7 billion capital plan built in part on about 11 gigawatts of high-probability data center load at its utilities [6]. The utility selling data center growth is now the loudest critic of the capacity prices that data center demand drives. ## What decides it FERC must answer a complaint that lands on a record it has already doubted. Briefs in the cost-allocation hearing are due November 13, PJM's next auction, for the 2029/30 delivery year, is set for December, and the Department of Energy has pushed PJM toward updated load forecasts [3][4]. If the prompt auction goes ahead, forward capacity revenue for the region's generators reprices. If it stalls, Exelon keeps filing and customers keep paying at the cap. ## Takeaway Exelon went to FERC on November 4 to break PJM's three-year capacity auction, arguing it prices load forecasts the market monitor says have shrunk, and FERC answers on a record it has already called a mess, with briefs due November 13 and PJM's next auction set for December. ## Sources 1. [Business Wire, Exelon Seeks to Protect Customers from "Unreasonable Costs" in New FERC Complaint, 4 November 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261104652439/en) 2. [RTO Insider, Exelon Asks FERC for Prompt Capacity Auction in PJM, 4 November 2026](https://www.rtoinsider.com/150688-exelon-ask-ferc-prompt-capacity-auction-pjm/) 3. [Forbes, PJM Market Monitor Says 42% Of Forecast Data Center Growth Is Delayed Or Canceled, 12 October 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/10/12/pjm-market-monitor-says-42-of-forecast-data-center-growth-is-delayed-or-canceled/) 4. [Utility Dive, FERC chair slams PJM 'mess' as country's largest grid operator delays power auction, 30 September 2026](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-delays-backstop-procurement-ferc-data-center/831751/) 5. [Yahoo Finance, Vistra Fell 14% on the Texas Election Vote. Here's What the November 6 Report Has to Settle, 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-fell-14-texas-election-133542031.html) 6. [24/7 Wall St., Exelon Q3 2026: Eight straight beats and a $41.7B growth plan, 30 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/cards/exelon-q3-2026-earnings-exc-01m667mx7v4x7zhm37e0svt14w) --- Exelon asks FERC to break PJM's capacity auction, which cleared at the $325 cap and committed $16.4 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/exelon-asks-ferc-to-break-pjm-s-capacity-auction-which-cleared-at-the-325-cap-and-committed-16-4-billion