--- title: "Exelon asks FERC to delay PJM's 2030/31 capacity auction to 2030 as load forecasts hit 21.7%" description: "Exelon, whose utilities buy power for about 10.7 million PJM customers, says the region's capacity market can no longer price AI-era demand three years ahead. Its own third-quarter filing shows the affordability squeeze that follows." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-12T16:27:28.716Z modified: 2026-11-12T16:27:28.716Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/exelon-asks-ferc-to-delay-pjm-s-2030-31-capacity-auction-to-2030-as-load-forecasts-hit-21-7 language: en keywords: "Power, Exelon, PJM, Capacity Markets, Data Center Demand, FERC" --- # Exelon asks FERC to delay PJM's 2030/31 capacity auction to 2030 as load forecasts hit 21.7% > Exelon, whose utilities buy power for about 10.7 million PJM customers, says the region's capacity market can no longer price AI-era demand three years ahead. Its own third-quarter filing shows the affordability squeeze that follows. Exelon asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on November 3 to change when PJM, the grid operator for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, buys its power [1][2]. The [complaint, docket EL27-11](https://www.energychoicematters.com/news/exelon-files-ferc-complaint-to-change-pjm-capacity-auction-to-prompt-auction-hel), would replace an auction held three years before delivery with a prompt one two months out, starting with the 2030/31 delivery year now scheduled for May 2027 [1][2]. [Exelon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/exelon-corporation)'s six utilities serve about 10.7 million customers in PJM, and since [separating its power plants with Constellation in 2022](https://theinference.org/article/ai-demand-is-pushing-exelon-back-into-the-generation-business-it-spun-off) it buys capacity rather than sells it [3][4]. What broke, on Exelon's telling, is demand: large loads such as data centers now arrive on schedules no three-year forecast can track [1][5]. ## The three-year forecast no longer describes the grid it prices The gap was set in [a 2006 settlement](https://theduckcurve.com/posts/exelon-ferc-complaint-pjm-prompt-capacity-auction), when a new plant took 33 months to build and load forecasts held steady [2]. Both halves of that bargain have gone. Load adjustments in PJM's 2026 forecast reach 21.7 percent of summer peak four to five years out [2]. In forecasts from 2017 through 2021 they never exceeded 2 percent [2]. Gas turbines now book five years ahead, and about 24 gigawatts of planned plants have abandoned signed interconnection agreements since 2020 without ever running [2]. The last two auctions [cleared at the $325 per MW-day cap](https://theinference.org/article/ferc-rejects-pjm-s-data-center-shortcut-and-capacity-prices-pinned-at-325-a-megawatt-day-carry-the-bill) federal regulators set, and still left the region short of its reliability requirement [2]. PJM's own May white paper, quoted in the complaint, says the design's foundational assumption "has been physically broken" [2]. Exelon says later auctions will run with no cap at all [2]. ## The squeeze is already on Exelon's books Third-quarter revenue rose 9 percent [4]. Operating income fell 8 percent, the first year-over-year decline in eight quarters [6]. The difference is regulatory. In August, Maryland's Public Service Commission awarded Pepco, Exelon's Washington-area utility, [a $51 million rate increase](https://theinference.org/article/exelon-s-power-plant-comeback-plan-is-running-into-maryland-s-ratepayer-wall) [4]. Pepco had asked for $120 million [4]. [The order also disallowed $180 million of plant](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000095/exc-20260930.htm), which Exelon wrote straight into operating and maintenance expense, and that write-off with heavier storm costs drove the 33 percent jump in operating and maintenance expense [4]. *Chart: **Exelon's operating income fell in Q3 2026 while revenue set an eight-quarter high** Line chart of Exelon's quarterly operating revenue and operating income from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026, showing revenue climbing to $7.3 billion in Q3 2026 while operating income fell to $1.4 billion.* *Exelon's operating revenue and operating income by quarter, in $ billions, from its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 and earlier SEC filings. Revenue set an eight-quarter high in Q3 2026 while operating income fell 8 percent from a year earlier. [4][6]* Adjusted earnings, which exclude the write-off, held at $0.87 a share [9]. The same bill pressure that sent Exelon to FERC is already making state regulators take money back. *Chart: **Exelon's capital spending has outrun operating cash flow in nine of the last ten quarters** Column chart comparing Exelon's quarterly capital spending with its operating cash flow from Q2 2024 to Q3 2026; capital spending exceeds operating cash flow in nine of the ten quarters.* *Exelon's capital spending and operating cash flow by quarter, in $ billions, from its SEC filings. Capital spending covers the wires and substations its utilities build; only Q3 2025 produced more operating cash than it spent. [6]* ## PJM is not on Exelon's clock PJM answered the next day, opposing fast-track handling and asking to move its reply from November 23 to December 21 [2]. Its board meets November 17 on the very auction at issue, and a separate stakeholder reform effort with more than 30 proposals convened November 13 [2][3]. Chief executive Calvin Butler put the physical stakes on record on November 9: last winter the Mid-Atlantic came within 15 minutes of curtailing power, with 400,000 customers exposed [8]. ## The clock is not the bottleneck; steel is Exelon says so itself: a prompt auction alone will not solve affordability, and PJM urgently needs more generation [7]. That is where the AI buildout now binds. FERC can change who pays for a wrong forecast; only new megawatts change what there is to buy. The value in this chain belongs to whoever delivers generation, wires and storage into PJM, not to anyone's four-year forecast. ## Takeaway Exelon wants PJM to buy capacity two months ahead instead of three years, and its own third quarter shows why: demand forecasts are off by a fifth and state regulators are already cutting what its utilities can charge. ## Sources 1. [EnergyChoiceMatters.com, "Exelon Files FERC Complaint To Change PJM Capacity Auction To Prompt Auction Held 2 Months Before Delivery, Rather Than 3 Years Forward," 5 November 2026](https://www.energychoicematters.com/news/exelon-files-ferc-complaint-to-change-pjm-capacity-auction-to-prompt-auction-hel) 2. [The Duck Curve, "Exelon asks FERC for a prompt PJM capacity auction; PJM pushes back," November 2026](https://theduckcurve.com/posts/exelon-ferc-complaint-pjm-prompt-capacity-auction) 3. [Utility Dive (via Yahoo Finance), Ethan Howland, "Exelon, Invenergy complaints at FERC seek capacity market changes," 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/exelon-invenergy-complaints-ferc-seek-142713511.html) 4. [Exelon Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, filed with the SEC 30 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000095/exc-20260930.htm) 5. [Earnings Anatomy, "Exelon Q3 2026 10-Q Analysis: Revenue Growth vs. Rising O&M Costs," 12 November 2026](https://earningsanatomy.com/blogs/exelon-q3-2026-10-q-analysis-revenue-growth-rising-om-costs) 6. [Exelon Corporation, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001109357) 7. [Exelon press release, "Exelon Seeks to Protect Customers from 'Unreasonable Costs' in New FERC Complaint" (Business Wire, via MarketScreener), 4 November 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/exelon-seeks-to-protect-customers-from-a-unreasonable-costsa-in-new-ferc-complaint-ce785fdfde8afe20) 8. [CNBC, "Exelon CEO: Election results won't change strategy as Mid-Atlantic power demand rises," 10 November 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/11/10/exelon-ceo-election-results-wont-change-strategy-as-mid-atlantic-power-demand-rises.html) 9. [Kalkine, "Exelon (NYSE:EXC) Narrows 2026 Earnings Guidance to USD 2.85 to USD 2.91 per Share," 9 November 2026](https://kalkine.com/news/earnings/exelon-nyseexc-narrows-2026-earnings-guidance-to-usd-285-to-usd-291-per-share) --- Exelon asks FERC to delay PJM's 2030/31 capacity auction to 2030 as load forecasts hit 21.7% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/exelon-asks-ferc-to-delay-pjm-s-2030-31-capacity-auction-to-2030-as-load-forecasts-hit-21-7