---
title: "Fair Isaac pulled 2027 guidance, and six banks cut price targets from $650 to $925"
description: "Fair Isaac's fiscal Q4 showed pure pricing power: mortgage score revenue rose 72% while loan volumes fell. Then it refused to guide fiscal 2027 as it moves to lender-by-lender pricing, and banks answered with targets from $650 to $925."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-11-06T16:23:32.212Z
modified: 2026-11-06T16:23:32.212Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/fair-isaac-fico-pulled-2027-guidance-as-six-banks-cut-price-targets-from-650-to-925
language: en
keywords: "Fair Isaac, Earnings, Guidance, Mortgages, Analyst Calls, Credit Scores"
---

# Fair Isaac pulled 2027 guidance, and six banks cut price targets from $650 to $925

> Fair Isaac's fiscal Q4 showed pure pricing power: mortgage score revenue rose 72% while loan volumes fell. Then it refused to guide fiscal 2027 as it moves to lender-by-lender pricing, and banks answered with targets from $650 to $925.

After the close on November 4, [Fair Isaac](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/fair-isaac-fico) (NYSE: FICO), the company behind the credit score nearly every US mortgage lender pulls, reported a quarter built almost entirely on price, then said it could not describe next year [1][2]. [Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814547/000081454726000037/exhibit991erq42026.htm) was $657.0 million, up 27% from $515.8 million a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $11.10 beat the $10.98 consensus [1][2]. GAAP net income of $175.0 million absorbed a $65 million accrual toward settling antitrust class actions over the Scores business, plus a $27 million restructuring charge [2].

## Price built the quarter

Scores revenue rose 33% to $413.8 million, and business-to-business Scores revenue rose 39%, which the company attributes primarily to a higher mortgage origination scores unit price, partly offset by lower originations volume [2]. [Mortgage-originations revenue climbed about 72%](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fair-isaac-fico-stock-shrugs-231818327.html) while volumes slipped high single digits [3]. Traffic fell; the toll rose. Nine quarters of revenue show the step: roughly $515 million a quarter before the repricing, roughly $675 million after [10][2].

*Chart: **Revenue stepped up by a third once FICO repriced its mortgage score** Line chart of FICO quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 to Q3 2026 showing a step up of about a third in calendar 2026*

*Quarterly revenue in millions of US dollars, Q3 2024 to Q3 2026, from FICO's SEC filings [10][2]*

## The price list goes private

FICO is dropping its published flat fee for pricing tailored to each customer [4], and the release is blunt: with programs and agreements still being finalized, "we are not providing fiscal year 2027 guidance at this time" [2]. The backdrop explains the hurry.

On September 28 the Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, put the rival VantageScore 4.0 on the same mortgage pricing table as Classic FICO; the stock fell 26.5% the next day, and [October brought a 15% workforce cut](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/05/fico-just-stopped-giving-guidance-as-it-rewrites-mortgage-pricing/) [6]. [TransUnion](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/transunion), VantageScore's co-owner, is holding that score at $0.99 through December 2028 [6].

FICO's counter is the Preferred Program, a held $10 wholesale price, and no 2027 increase, for lenders that commit; [Guild, PennyMac, LoanDepot and DHI Mortgage have signed](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/dhi-mortgage-loandepot-paramount-residential-130000245.html) [5][6].

## The debt under the toll

The leverage sits on FICO's own balance sheet: $4.92 billion of long-term debt, up from $2.66 billion a year earlier, against $217.6 million of cash and a $3.87 billion stockholders' deficit [2]. Fiscal 2026 produced $1.03 billion of free cash flow and $3.05 billion of buybacks, funded with borrowing; the buybacks are now paused, with net leverage at 3.29 times EBITDA [2][6].

## Six banks, six verdicts

RBC Capital [downgraded the stock to Sector Perform](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4666754-fair-isaac-downgraded-to-hold-equivalent-at-rbc-capital-over-uncertainty) and cut its target from $1,045 to $770 [7]. [Wells Fargo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/wells-fargo) went to $650 [8]; JPMorgan to $800, with [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) at $800 and Needham at $925 [9].

*Chart: **One earnings report, a $275 spread of price targets** Bar chart of analyst price targets on FICO after the November 4 report, from Wells Fargo at $650 to Needham and Jefferies at $925*

*Price targets published after the November 4 earnings report; RBC's is a cut from $1,045 alongside a downgrade to Sector Perform [7][8][9]*

The tape disagreed: shares fell about 7% after hours on the report [6], then closed November 5 up 0.9% at $707.40 [3]. January decides it, when lenders pick a pricing path and FICO either restores guidance or does not [6]. You cannot model a toll road that sets its tolls in private.

## Takeaway

FICO's fiscal Q4 proved pricing power, but pulling 2027 guidance during a private repricing of mortgage scores left Wall Street cutting targets from $1,045 to a $650-$925 spread while $4.92 billion of debt sits under the toll road.

## Sources

1. [WallStreetBets, "FICO Q4 revenue rises 27% on higher Scores revenue", 4 November 2026](https://wallstreetbets.com/news/fico-q4-profit-rise)
2. [Fair Isaac Corporation, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 earnings release, 4 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814547/000081454726000037/exhibit991erq42026.htm)
3. [Yahoo Finance UK / Simply Wall St, "Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Shrugs Off Q4 Results Despite Debt Questions", 5 November 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fair-isaac-fico-stock-shrugs-231818327.html)
4. [Wall Street Journal (via r/ValueInvesting), "FICO Declines to Share Guidance Amid Price Structure Change", 4 November 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1xo99tz/fico_declines_to_share_guidance_amid_price/)
5. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, "DHI Mortgage, LoanDepot, Paramount Residential Mortgage Group and CMG Financial Join Growing Roster of FICO Preferred Program Lenders", 4 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/dhi-mortgage-loandepot-paramount-residential-130000245.html)
6. [24/7 Wall St, "FICO Just Stopped Giving Guidance as It Rewrites Mortgage Pricing", 5 November 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/05/fico-just-stopped-giving-guidance-as-it-rewrites-mortgage-pricing/)
7. [Seeking Alpha, "Fair Isaac downgraded to Hold equivalent at RBC Capital over uncertainty", 5 November 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4666754-fair-isaac-downgraded-to-hold-equivalent-at-rbc-capital-over-uncertainty)
8. [TradingView, "Wells Fargo maintains Fair Isaac at Equal-Weight, lowers price target to $650 from $735", 5 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:1284b0e863264:0-wells-fargo-maintains-fair-isaac-at-equal-weight-lowers-price-target-to-650-from-735/)
9. [TradingView, "JP Morgan maintains Fair Isaac at Neutral, lowers price target to $800 from $900", 5 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:4c465c2f1350c:0-jp-morgan-maintains-fair-isaac-at-neutral-lowers-price-target-to-800-from-900/)
10. [Fair Isaac (FICO), quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 6 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000814547)


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Fair Isaac pulled 2027 guidance, and six banks cut price targets from $650 to $925 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/fair-isaac-fico-pulled-2027-guidance-as-six-banks-cut-price-targets-from-650-to-925