--- title: "FICO's growth is one fee, and the FHFA put a $1 rival score on the same pricing grid" description: "Fair Isaac's expansion is almost entirely price hikes on the credit score attached to most US mortgages. November 4 brings its first report since the FHFA put a $1 rival on equal pricing terms, and Equifax's call has already counted the switching." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-10-22T03:21:41.678Z modified: 2026-10-22T03:21:41.678Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/fico-s-growth-is-one-fee-and-the-fhfa-put-a-1-rival-score-on-the-same-pricing-grid language: en keywords: "FICO, Credit Scores, Mortgages, FHFA, Equifax, Regulation" --- # FICO's growth is one fee, and the FHFA put a $1 rival score on the same pricing grid > Fair Isaac's expansion is almost entirely price hikes on the credit score attached to most US mortgages. November 4 brings its first report since the FHFA put a $1 rival on equal pricing terms, and Equifax's call has already counted the switching. Every dollar of [Fair Isaac](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/fair-isaac-fico)'s recent growth traces to one fee. In the June quarter its Scores segment booked $459 million, up 41 percent, while Software grew 2 percent; inside Scores, revenue from mortgage origination checks rose 97 percent on volumes that grew low single digits [1]. Mortgage scoring is now 62 percent of Scores and roughly 43 percent of the whole company [1][2]. *Chart: **Price, not volume: mortgage score revenue grew 97% while software grew 2%** Bar chart of year-over-year revenue growth in Fair Isaac's June 2026 quarter: mortgage origination scores 97%, all B2B scores 49%, Scores segment 41%, Software segment 2%.* *Year-over-year revenue growth in Fair Isaac's fiscal Q3 2026, the quarter ended June 30. Source: FICO fiscal Q3 2026 results via Trefis. [1]* ## The regulator built a $1 bridge beside the toll The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moved twice in September. On September 3, Director Bill Pulte directed that every approved lender may use VantageScore 4.0, a rival score owned jointly by [Equifax](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/equifax), Experian and [TransUnion](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/transunion) [4]. [On September 28 he posted: "Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID,"](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-gses-one-grid/) folding VantageScore onto Classic FICO's pricing grid and erasing a 20-point penalty for choosing it [3]. FICO stock fell about 17 percent on September 4 and more than 26 percent on September 29 [2]. ## Equifax counted the switch [On its October 20 call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/equifax-efx-q3-2026-earnings-174503765.html), Equifax chief executive Mark Begor said about 2,000 mortgage lenders now run VantageScore in underwriting, seven times April's count, with VantageScore mortgage volume up more than 230 percent and more than 200 lenders using it exclusively [5]. [Rocket Mortgage has made it the preferred score for eligible loans](https://theinference.org/article/america-s-no-1-mortgage-lender-now-pulls-a-rival-score-on-every-loan-and-fico-calls-it-loyalty) [3], and it was used to securitize about 9 percent of Fannie and Freddie mortgages from May through August [4]. Equifax holds its price at $1 through 2028 [5]. The same call carried the caveat: fourth-quarter guidance still assumes FICO scores on every mortgage transaction, with limited VantageScore revenue [5]. Fair Isaac's own answer, a direct licensing program sold through resellers, is still awaiting GSE certification [1]. ## The bounce and the targets point opposite ways The week of October 12, FICO rose 16 percent to $771 with no confirmed catalyst beyond short covering and [an October 6 plan to cut about 15 percent of staff at a $27 million charge](https://theinference.org/article/fico-cuts-about-570-jobs-the-week-fhfa-leveled-its-pricing-moat) [2]. Since September 30, the mean analyst target has fallen 18 percent to $1,032; the $490 low sits under the price [2]. The stock is down 50.5 percent for 2026 against a 17.1 percent S&P 500 gain, at 16x forward earnings versus a three-year average of 47x [1][2]. *Chart: **Score price hikes bent the curve: quarterly revenue growth hit 39% in March 2026** Line chart of Fair Isaac quarterly revenue rising from about $390 million in late 2023 to $674 million in the March 2026 quarter, with the step change beginning in the December 2025 quarter after mortgage score price hikes.* *Fair Isaac's total revenue by fiscal quarter, in millions of dollars; fiscal 2026 first quarter is the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Source: Fair Isaac quarterly figures from SEC filings. [7]* ## November 4 decides whose numbers were right Fair Isaac [reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 4, after the close](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fair-isaac-corporation-announces-date-201500962.html) [6], the first print covering the single grid. Management's last word on volumes, that it was not seeing loss, [dates to a July 29 call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/much-fair-isaac-growth-comes-220437817.html) [1]. Equifax farms both sides either way: about 45 percent of its USIS mortgage revenue is FICO royalty pass-through at no margin, and full conversion to the score it co-owns is worth roughly $35 million of incremental margin [5]. Its shares [rose 10.7 percent on the report](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/equifax-soars-10-7-q3-175751636.html) [8]. The switch risk sits with FICO holders alone, and the toll's first post-grid traffic count arrives in two weeks. ## Takeaway Fair Isaac's growth is a mortgage fee, and the FHFA has put a $1 rival score on the same pricing grid; November 4, the first print under the single grid, shows whether the toll keeps collecting. ## Sources 1. [Trefis via Yahoo Finance, "How Much Of Fair Isaac's Growth Comes From Its Mortgage Score Price?", 21 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/much-fair-isaac-growth-comes-220437817.html) 2. [TIKR (Gian Estrada) via Yahoo Finance, "FICO Stock Rose 16% Last Week With No News. The Street's Targets Fell 18%.", 19 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fico-stock-rose-16-last-065129493.html) 3. [HousingWire, "FHFA says Fannie, Freddie will use one LLPA grid for FICO, VantageScore", 29 September 2026](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-gses-one-grid/) 4. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, "All Mortgages Securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Will Now Disclose a VantageScore 4.0 Credit Score", 10 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/mortgages-securitized-fannie-mae-freddie-120000566.html) 5. [Equifax Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Mark Begor, John Gamble), Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, 20 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/equifax-efx-q3-2026-earnings-174503765.html) 6. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, "Fair Isaac Corporation Announces Date for Reporting of Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results", 21 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fair-isaac-corporation-announces-date-201500962.html) 7. [Fair Isaac quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 22 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000814547) 8. [TIKR (Gian Estrada) via Yahoo Finance, "Equifax Soars 10.7% as Q3 Mortgage Revenue Jumps 15% Despite 'Much Weaker Mortgage Market'", 20 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/equifax-soars-10-7-q3-175751636.html) --- FICO's growth is one fee, and the FHFA put a $1 rival score on the same pricing grid — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/fico-s-growth-is-one-fee-and-the-fhfa-put-a-1-rival-score-on-the-same-pricing-grid