--- title: "First independent study finds OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads return sites $0.89 a visit against Google's $2.45" description: "The measurement lands a week before Bending Spoons reports Q3. Evernote's owner has bet its next subscribers on the channel, and the cost side of that bet has never been published." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Applications" published: 2026-11-12T14:21:25.759Z modified: 2026-11-12T14:21:25.759Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/first-independent-study-finds-openai-s-chatgpt-ads-return-sites-0-89-a-visit-against-google-s-2-45 language: en keywords: "ChatGPT, Online Advertising, OpenAI, Evernote, Bending Spoons" --- # First independent study finds OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads return sites $0.89 a visit against Google's $2.45 > The measurement lands a week before Bending Spoons reports Q3. Evernote's owner has bet its next subscribers on the channel, and the cost side of that bet has never been published. The first independent measurements of ChatGPT Ads, [OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai)'s in-conversation ad product, find the channel returns about a third of what a paid Google search visit returns [1][3], and they land a week before [Bending Spoons](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bending-spoons), the company that owns [Evernote](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/evernote), reports Q3 [7]. [A working paper under review](https://ecommerceresearch.org/chatgpt-ads), by economists Maximilian Kaiser and Christian Schulze, tracked nearly ten billion sessions across 1,898 websites through August [1][2]. A paid ChatGPT visit generated $0.89 in revenue for the site it reached, against $2.45 for a paid [Google](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet) search visit, measured across 102 advertisers [1]. More than 100,000 advertisers are testing the channel, and Adthena, a search intelligence firm, found most of the 30 enterprise brands it tracked last quarter struggled to recoup what they spent [3]. *Chart: **Most enterprise brands struggled to recoup their ChatGPT ad spend** Pie chart of 30 enterprise brands by ChatGPT Ads outcome: 52% struggled to recoup spend, 26% matched or beat Google ads, 22% mixed results* *Share of 30 enterprise brands by ChatGPT Ads outcome, July to September 2026. Source: Adthena data reported by Business Insider. [3]* ## Evernote's published lift stops short of a cost [OpenAI's October 28 customer post](https://openai.com/ads/customers/evernote) is the counterpoint the platform points to [3][4]. Evernote's campaigns, built around a single product feature, converted free trials to paid subscriptions 10–20% above its historical paid-acquisition average [4]. Roughly a quarter of desktop visits from those campaigns became new accounts [4]. All of it rests on Evernote's first-party analytics, and the post's own footnote concedes the comparison does not establish incremental lift [4]. Conversion quality is one half of a profit-and-loss statement. No published figure says what those sessions cost Evernote. The closest channel-wide read is the paper's pricing finding: at paid search's rate of return, a paid ChatGPT click would be worth about $0.26 [1]. Actual prices run more than six times that [1]. *Chart: **A paid ChatGPT visit is worth about a third of a paid Google search visit** Bar chart of revenue per paid visit: $2.45 from a paid Google search visit, $0.89 from a paid ChatGPT visit, and $0.26 for a ChatGPT visit valued at paid search's rate of return* *Revenue generated per paid visit for the site reached, in dollars, measured across 102 advertisers; the bottom bar is the paper's estimate of what a paid ChatGPT click would be worth if it returned what paid search does. Source: Ecommerce Research (Kaiser and Schulze), October 2026. [1]* ## For Bending Spoons, the marginal subscriber is the whole story Bending Spoons (Nasdaq: BSP), the Milan-based acquirer whose portfolio runs [AOL](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/aol), [Vimeo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vimeo) and [WeTransfer](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/wetransfer) alongside Evernote [7], has grown the note app by raising prices and capping usage for the users it already had [5]. Prices jumped from $70 a year to $130 after the 2023 takeover [5]. This year some longtime users were moved to a $250 plan [5], and in 2025, 51% of all conversions came from users hitting a usage limit [5]. ## The conversion loop is being built; the cost side is not A channel that pulls willing users in would be a different growth engine, and the work of tracking a visitor from click to first payment is visible: Evernote used its own analytics to follow ad visitors through to a first subscription payment [4], exactly the conversion data OpenAI's new measurement pixel and conversion bidding are built to learn from [3]. That engine is debt-funded. Bending Spoons [priced $1.8 billion of senior secured notes on October 28](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bending-spoons-announces-pricing-senior-180600512.html) to fund more acquisitions [6], and [reports Q3 on November 20](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BSP/bending-spoons-to-announce-q3-2026-pegrn7p6m24p.html) [7]. ## Registrations rebounded, payback is still unproven Registrations did rebound after the takeover, up 29% in 2024 and 20% in 2025 after three straight years of decline [5]. What had never been published, until now, is evidence from a paid channel that Evernote can win users it does not already have [4]. Whether it wins them at a price that pays back is what the first independent read doubts, and Black Friday, flagged by Adthena chief marketing officer Ashley Fletcher as the moment to watch, is the near-term test [3]. ## Takeaway The first independent measure of ChatGPT Ads puts a paid visit's return at $0.89 for the site it reaches, against $2.45 from a paid Google search. Bending Spoons, whose Evernote has bet on the channel, reports Q3 on November 20 with what those sessions cost still unpublished. ## Sources 1. [Ecommerce Research (Maximilian Kaiser and Christian Schulze), study page for "Can Advertising Fund Free AI? Evidence from ChatGPT's International Advertising Rollout", October 2026](https://ecommerceresearch.org/chatgpt-ads) 2. [Yahoo Finance (MediaPost, Laurie Sullivan), "Advertisers Get Less Attention From Paid ChatGPT Visits Than Paid Search", 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/advertisers-less-attention-paid-chatgpt-144216899.html) 3. [Business Insider, "OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads face ROI test as marketers weigh results", 11 November 2026](https://www.businessinsider.com/openais-chatgpt-ads-face-roi-test-marketers-2026-11) 4. [OpenAI, "Evernote turns AI-driven discovery into paid subscriptions", 28 October 2026](https://openai.com/ads/customers/evernote) 5. [Ars Technica (Scharon Harding), "From cheap tool to premium subscription: When a beloved app's price skyrockets", 27 October 2026](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/10/from-cheap-tool-to-premium-subscription-when-a-beloved-apps-price-skyrockets/) 6. [Bending Spoons press release via Yahoo Finance (GlobeNewswire), "Bending Spoons announces pricing of senior secured notes", 28 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bending-spoons-announces-pricing-senior-180600512.html) 7. [GlobeNewswire via StockTitan, "Bending Spoons to announce Q3 2026 results", 6 November 2026](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BSP/bending-spoons-to-announce-q3-2026-pegrn7p6m24p.html) --- First independent study finds OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads return sites $0.89 a visit against Google's $2.45 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/first-independent-study-finds-openai-s-chatgpt-ads-return-sites-0-89-a-visit-against-google-s-2-45