---
title: "Goldman Hands SanDisk a $150 Billion Story and the Stock Falls 7%"
description: "Goldman's map of High-Bandwidth Flash names SanDisk, SK Hynix and Samsung as the owners of AI's next memory tier, and its wafer arithmetic tightens the flash supply behind it. The October 29 earnings report decides whether a 575% run was a new regime or a cycle top."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Silicon"
published: 2026-10-12T17:22:54.033Z
modified: 2026-10-12T17:22:54.033Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-hands-sandisk-a-150-billion-story-and-the-stock-falls-7
language: en
keywords: "Sandisk, Goldman Sachs, Memory, NAND, Semiconductors"
---

# Goldman Hands SanDisk a $150 Billion Story and the Stock Falls 7%

> Goldman's map of High-Bandwidth Flash names SanDisk, SK Hynix and Samsung as the owners of AI's next memory tier, and its wafer arithmetic tightens the flash supply behind it. The October 29 earnings report decides whether a 575% run was a new regime or a cycle top.

[Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) gave [SanDisk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sandisk) the next chapter of its run on Monday. Analyst James Schneider argued that High-Bandwidth Flash, NAND stacked and wired the way high-bandwidth memory (HBM) stacks DRAM, can break the memory wall AI inference keeps hitting, and picked the stocks to own for it [1]. SanDisk is up 575% in 2026 to about $1,600 [2]. By Monday morning the shares were down 7.02%, with [SK Hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) off 4.10% and [Samsung](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/samsung) off 4.39% [1].

The scare sat in the other memory segment. China's [CXMT](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cxmt) [told an industry event in Shanghai it had made key progress on a next-generation DRAM cell](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/samsung-sk-hynix-shares-drop-053408695.html), with server modules planned by the end of 2026 [3]. CXMT already holds 10% of the global DRAM market, up from 4% a year earlier, per Counterpoint [8].

*Chart: **Three desks put SanDisk 28% to 88% higher, and only two clear the 52-week high** Bar chart comparing SanDisk's price with analyst price targets from Mizuho, Rosenblatt and Arete Research against the 52-week high*

*Broker targets are estimates, not reported prices. Price as of October 11, 2026, per MarketBeat; 52-week high per Motley Fool market data. Sources: MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance; The Motley Fool. [2][6]*

## HBF would take 9% of wafers for 4% of the bits

Schneider [sized HBF at $40 billion to $150 billion by 2030](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/goldman-names-3-names-benefit-112437016.html), depending on whether 15% or 50% of AI chips adopt it [1]. He estimated it could cut the cost of inference throughput by about 30%, worth several hundred billion dollars in cloud capex savings [1]. The sting is the wafer arithmetic: his bull case puts HBF at roughly 4% of global NAND bit shipments by late 2028 while consuming roughly 9% of wafer capacity, because the dies are larger [1].

Wafers stacked into inference packages are wafers not making ordinary flash, so the fix for the memory wall points to tighter supply for everything else that uses NAND, phones and consoles included. Cloud providers bank the capex savings; [phone, PC and console buyers fund the diversion](https://theinference.org/article/a-sandisk-sd-card-lists-at-6-500-pesos-nine-times-its-2023-price-as-nanya-posts-an-85-7-margin).

## Samples are due in early 2028, just ahead of Goldman's bull case

SanDisk and SK Hynix [published the first HBF specification on August 3 through the Open Compute Project](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/sk-hynix-sandisk-race-fix-191300807.html) [4]. SK Hynix's conference timeline puts the full specification in early 2027 and first samples in early 2028 [5], barely ahead of the late-2028 adoption Goldman's bull case assumes [1]. The bank rates SanDisk, SK Hynix and Samsung Buy, favors the first two for technology leadership, keeps [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) Neutral, and flags rival routes at Kioxia and Samsung [1].

## The margin curve is the bear case

The filings make the bear case. Gross margin ran 22.5% in the quarter ended March 2025 and 84.6% in the quarter ended July 3 [7]. Two-thirds of last quarter's 51% sequential revenue jump came from higher prices, and the guide for the quarter now being reported holds margin at 83% to 85% on modest price increases [6]. The last downcycle, fiscal 2023, cut revenue 38% and sank gross margin to 7.1% [6].

*Chart: **Revenue went from $1.9 billion to $9.0 billion in four quarters** Line chart of SanDisk quarterly revenue from late 2023 to mid 2026, flat between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion for two years, then climbing to $8.97 billion in the quarter ended July 3, 2026*

*Reported quarterly revenue in USD billions, as filed with the SEC. The first quarter on file, ended September 29, 2023, sits near the bottom of the last flash downturn, when annual revenue fell 38%. Sources: Sandisk, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 October 2026. [10]*

*Chart: **Gross margin ran from 22.5% to 84.6% in five quarters, and the guide says it plateaus** Line chart of SanDisk quarterly gross margin rising from 36% to 84.6%, with a dashed guided point labeled 83 to 85 percent*

*Reported quarterly gross margin from SEC filings; the dashed point is the fiscal Q1 2027 guide of 83% to 85%, drawn as an estimate at its midpoint. Sources: SEC filings via company series; guidance from the fiscal Q4 2026 call. [7][6]*

## The contracts are the defense; October 29 is the verdict

The shield is contractual. [Multiyear agreements with price floors are expected to cover about half the bits SanDisk ships in fiscal 2027](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/12/sandisk-s-sales-fell-38-in-the-last-flash-memory-downturn-and-its-oct-29-report-is-the-next-test/), [worth at least $93.9 billion at floor pricing](https://theinference.org/article/sandisk-sold-its-flash-future-for-93-9-billion-then-bet-31-billion-on-more-fabs) [6]. Tracker TrendForce still sees NAND contract prices rising 15% to 20% next quarter, and no downturn has tested those floors [6].

[Fiscal first-quarter results land Thursday October 29](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sandisk-report-first-quarter-fiscal-213000799.html) [9]. After a 575% run, a beat is table stakes; the test is whether pricing still adds to sequential growth and whether the next margin guide holds [6].

Until then, Monday priced the doubt: memory is one trade, and a DRAM headline out of Shanghai can take seven points off the name Goldman likes best [1][3].

## Takeaway

Goldman's High-Bandwidth Flash case spends 9% of NAND wafer capacity to ship 4% of the bits; with gross margin at 84.6% and price floors under half of fiscal 2027 shipments, October 29 decides if the 575% run holds.

## Sources

1. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Goldman names 3 names to benefit as high-performance NAND tackles AI's memory wall, 12 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/goldman-names-3-names-benefit-112437016.html)
2. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Why Wall Street Expects Even More From SanDisk After Its 575% Rally, 11 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-wall-street-expects-even-122000294.html)
3. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Samsung, SK Hynix shares drop as China's CXMT flags progress in memory development, 12 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/samsung-sk-hynix-shares-drop-053408695.html)
4. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, SK hynix, Sandisk race to fix AI's next chip bottleneck, 4 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/sk-hynix-sandisk-race-fix-191300807.html)
5. [Forbes, Tom Coughlin, High Bandwidth Flash Advances At The 2026 FMS Conference, 21 August 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomcoughlin/2026/08/21/high-bandwidth-flash-advances-at-the-2026-fms-conference/)
6. [The Motley Fool, Sandisk's Sales Fell 38% in the Last Flash Memory Downturn, and Its Oct. 29 Report Is the Next Test, 12 October 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/12/sandisk-s-sales-fell-38-in-the-last-flash-memory-downturn-and-its-oct-29-report-is-the-next-test/)
7. [Sandisk, quarterly revenue and gross margin from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554)
8. [Invezz via MSN, Why are Micron and SK Hynix stocks struggling today? It's the CXMT threat again, 3 September 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/why-are-micron-and-sk-hynix-stocks-struggling-today-it-s-the-cxmt-threat-again/ar-AA2bwlvP)
9. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, Sandisk to Report First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on October 29, 2026, 29 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sandisk-report-first-quarter-fiscal-213000799.html)
10. [Sandisk, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554)


---

Goldman Hands SanDisk a $150 Billion Story and the Stock Falls 7% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-hands-sandisk-a-150-billion-story-and-the-stock-falls-7