--- title: "Goldman lifts TSMC's 2028 capex to $98 billion while pushing the Texas payoff past 2032" description: "Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's 2027 and 2028 capex forecasts to $85 billion and $98 billion and said any new Texas fab reaches mass production only after 2032. The TAIEX closed at a record 49,822 with TSMC more than 40% of the index, nine days before the October 15 call." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-08T15:17:57.409Z modified: 2026-10-08T15:17:57.409Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-lifts-tsmc-s-2028-capex-to-98-billion-while-pushing-the-texas-payoff-past-2032 language: en keywords: "TSMC, Semiconductors, Capex, AI, Foundry, Goldman Sachs" --- # Goldman lifts TSMC's 2028 capex to $98 billion while pushing the Texas payoff past 2032 > Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's 2027 and 2028 capex forecasts to $85 billion and $98 billion and said any new Texas fab reaches mass production only after 2032. The TAIEX closed at a record 49,822 with TSMC more than 40% of the index, nine days before the October 15 call. ## A $98 billion bill lands before the first Texas wafer Nine days before [TSMC](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc) reports, [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) has priced the AI buildout past the end of the decade. The bank [lifted its 2027 and 2028 capital spending forecasts for TSMC to $85 billion and $98 billion](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301026266), up from $78 billion and $82 billion, and held 2026 at $64 billion [1]. Any new Texas fab, the note adds, would not reach mass production until after 2032 [1]. The money moves now; the silicon lands in six years. ## Taiwan's index is already a bet on that capex The forecast is priced. The TAIEX [closed at a record 49,822 on October 6 after touching 49,968.92](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328642/20261006/taiwan-stocks-brush-record-50000-tsmcs-ai-packaging-moat-powers-rally.htm), with TSMC shares at an all-time high and the company worth more than 40% of the index [2]. Goldman raised its Taiwan-listed target to NT$3,300, for 28% upside [1]. ## Margins dip while sales run past the guide The bill comes due before the capacity does. TSMC [guided third-quarter gross margin down to 65.0% to 67.0% from 67.7% in the second quarter](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3), a dip Goldman pins on the N2 node ramp [3][1]. Sales are not the problem: the company's [monthly filings sum to NT$1.49 trillion for the quarter](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026), about $46.7 billion at the 32.0 exchange rate TSMC used for its guidance, above the $45.8 billion top of the range [4][3]. This is a foundry rationing silicon, not chasing it: one trade report counts [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) cutting consumer RTX 5070 Ti and 5060 Ti output 30% to 40% in the first half as wafers shifted to AI chips [5]. *Chart: **Gross margin has climbed 14.6 points in ten quarters; the N2 ramp is the first test** Line chart of TSMC's quarterly gross margin from Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, rising from 53.1 percent to 67.7 percent, with the third-quarter 2026 guidance range of 65.0 to 67.0 percent drawn as an estimate at the end.* *Gross margin as a percent of revenue by calendar quarter, from TSMC's SEC filings. The third-quarter 2026 point is the midpoint of TSMC's guidance of 65.0% to 67.0%, issued with its third-quarter guidance. [10][3]* ## The receipts: capex, packaging, nine-month queues The spending curve bent last year. TSMC spent $29.4 billion in 2024 and $40.7 billion in 2025 [6]; Goldman now draws the line to $98 billion [1]. [The destination is packaging](https://theinference.org/article/ase-spent-nt-10-billion-in-three-weeks-building-the-packaging-slots-amd-cannot-get): CoWoS capacity, 675,000 wafers in 2025, is forecast to reach 3.48 million by 2028 [1]. The toolmakers get paid first. [Tokyo Electron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tokyo-electron) carries a [consensus operating profit of ¥1.025 trillion for the fiscal year](https://eastasiabrief.com/semiconductors/tokyo-electron-nears-1-trillion-yen-profit-memory-capex-577), its Korean equipment revenue rose 73% in the June quarter, and lead times on advanced etch and clean tools run past nine months [7]. *Chart: **TSMC's 2028 capex forecast is 2.4 times its 2025 spend** Column chart of TSMC capital spending from 2021 to 2028, flat near $30 billion through 2024, then rising steeply to a forecast $98 billion in 2028.* *2021 to 2025 are reported capital spending from TSMC's SEC filings; 2026 to 2028 are Goldman Sachs forecasts reported October 8, 2026. US dollars. [6][1]* ## The other side: forecasts, not commitments None of the far numbers is a commitment. [TSMC's $165 billion US pledge of March 2025](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3210) is Arizona money: three new fabs, two packaging plants, an R&D center [8]. Texas exists so far as [Elon Musk](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk) [calling TSMC talks on his Terafab project "just discussions"](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/tsmc-stock-hits-all-time-high-after-elon-musk-confirms-early-terafab-talks-162904771.html) [9]. Tokyo Electron itself stopped publishing full-year forecasts this year, citing AI procurement volatility [7]. ## October 15 is the test TSMC reports at 14:00 Taiwan time on October 15 [3]. A 2026 capex guide near Goldman's $64 billion, and a named Texas site, would confirm the extension. Anything less, and the market has paid 2028 prices for 2026 silicon. ## Takeaway Goldman now models TSMC capex at $85 billion in 2027 and $98 billion in 2028, with any new Texas fab producing only after 2032; the record TAIEX has priced the extension, and the October 15 call and its 2026 guide are the test. ## Sources 1. [Longbridge News, Goldman Sachs Raises TSMC's 2028 Capex Forecast to $98 Billion, Extending AI Expansion Cycle Beyond 2032, 8 October 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301026266) 2. [TechTimes, Taiwan Stocks Brush Record 50,000 as TSMC's AI Packaging Moat Powers Rally, 6 October 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328642/20261006/taiwan-stocks-brush-record-50000-tsmcs-ai-packaging-moat-powers-rally.htm) 3. [TSMC Investor Relations, 2026 Q3 quarterly results and guidance, accessed 8 October 2026](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3) 4. [TSMC Investor Relations, 2026 monthly revenue, accessed 8 October 2026](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026) 5. [eimoh, TSMC's A14 Pilot Run Signals the End of the Yield Gap, 8 October 2026](https://eimoh.com/tsmcs-a14-pilot-run-signals-the-end-of-the-yield-gap-2/) 6. [TSMC, annual figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 8 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179) 7. [East Asia Brief, Tokyo Electron nears 1 trillion yen profit on memory capex, 7 October 2026](https://eastasiabrief.com/semiconductors/tokyo-electron-nears-1-trillion-yen-profit-memory-capex-577) 8. [TSMC press release, TSMC Intends to Expand Its Investment in the United States to US$165 Billion to Power the Future of AI, 4 March 2025](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3210) 9. [Yahoo Finance, TSMC stock hits all-time high after Elon Musk confirms early Terafab talks, 5 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/tsmc-stock-hits-all-time-high-after-elon-musk-confirms-early-terafab-talks-162904771.html) 10. [TSMC, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 8 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179) --- Goldman lifts TSMC's 2028 capex to $98 billion while pushing the Texas payoff past 2032 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-lifts-tsmc-s-2028-capex-to-98-billion-while-pushing-the-texas-payoff-past-2032