---
title: "Goldman maps 45% of the 586 GW US data center pipeline into states that may pause it; 199 GW is being built"
description: "Goldman Sachs now maps nearly half of America's 586 GW of planned data-center capacity into states leaning toward tighter rules, and only 199 GW of it is actually being built. The exposure runs through Texas, a quarter of the pipeline, which just elected a governor who promised to halt new approvals, and it lands on the equity and debt behind everything still on paper."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Data Center"
published: 2026-11-12T15:16:09.673Z
modified: 2026-11-12T15:16:09.673Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-maps-45-of-the-586-gw-us-data-center-pipeline-into-states-that-may-pause-it-199-gw-is-being-built
language: en
keywords: "Data Centers, Texas, AI Infrastructure, Cipher Mining"
---

# Goldman maps 45% of the 586 GW US data center pipeline into states that may pause it; 199 GW is being built

> Goldman Sachs now maps nearly half of America's 586 GW of planned data-center capacity into states leaning toward tighter rules, and only 199 GW of it is actually being built. The exposure runs through Texas, a quarter of the pipeline, which just elected a governor who promised to halt new approvals, and it lands on the equity and debt behind everything still on paper.

[Cipher Digital](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cipher-mining), a Texas data-center developer that has all but exited bitcoin mining, fell 13.3% to $5.63 by November 6, 2026, after governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged to halt new data-center approvals in the state [1]. [Applied Digital](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-digital) and [TeraWulf](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/terawulf), rivals with more diversified operations, dropped 15.4% and 12.5% on the same pledge [1]. On November 11, Cipher rose 9.9% to $7.18 [2]. No Texas permitting action appears in the coverage this piece draws on between those two dates; the rally tracked results from [CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave), an AI cloud provider, and a broad market gain [2].

## 45% of the pipeline sits in states leaning toward a pause

[Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) [estimates that states likely to tighten their data-center rules hold about 45% of planned US capacity](https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-state-moratoria-data-center-capacity/), with Texas alone at roughly 25% [3]. The count has company. Cleanview puts 158.6 GW, 41% of the national pipeline, in states where incoming governors pledged pauses, and [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) found 80% of the roughly 300 GW pipeline it rates high-probability will sit under Democratic governors next year [3]. Of the 586 GW announced nationwide, just 199 GW is being built, and Goldman calls that permitted, under-construction slice the defensible one, better positioned than [the paper announcements](https://theinference.org/article/crusoe-files-a-4-8bn-jayton-campus-and-project-hyper-hits-12bn-with-no-tenant-named) if approvals stall [3].

## The exposure runs through the debt behind the paper

Lenders financed much of that paper, and by late October banks were already writing [$9 billion a week of default insurance on AI debt](https://theinference.org/article/morgan-stanley-and-goldman-sachs-count-9-billion-a-week-of-default-insurance-on-ai-debt) [4]. Hinojosa, a Democrat who defeated the incumbent Republican governor, Greg Abbott, on November 3, takes office on January 19 having [pledged "a moratorium" on "all data center approvals" until the Legislature passes protections](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/gina-hinojosa-won-the-governor-s-race-what-happens-to-texas-data-centers-now/ar-AA2gL2R4) [4]. Abbott had already halted new grid connections on August 3; ERCOT, the state grid operator, was tracking more than 400 GW of proposed projects [5].

## Cipher signed $16.6 billion of leases and collected $27 million

Cipher is the sharpest test of the map. Its three Texas campuses total 700 gross megawatts, fully leased, worth $16.6 billion of contracted revenue over 17.3-year average terms, against $146 million of trailing revenue and debt equal to 190.4% of its market value [6].

Last quarter it [booked about $27 million of revenue, including its first $5.9 million of rent from the Black Pearl campus](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/cipher-digital-reports-27-million-in-q3-revenue-as-hpc-leasing-begins-and-contracted-revenue-reaches-9-1-billion-at-barber-lake/ar-AA2gANvc); net income of $31.6 million arrived with an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $10 million [7]. The building was paid for with borrowed money: total debt went from $23 million to $5.6 billion in ten quarters [8]. The $16.6 billion is worth what Texas lets it become [8].

*Chart: **Cipher's debt grew 240-fold in ten quarters; revenue barely moved** Column chart of Cipher Digital's quarterly total debt and quarterly revenue in billions of dollars from Q2 2024 to Q3 2026, debt rising from 0.023 to 5.619 while revenue stays near 0.03*

*Quarterly totals in US dollars from Cipher's SEC filings, Q2 2024 through Q3 2026. Debt is total debt at quarter end; revenue is total quarterly revenue. [7][8]*

## Goldman stays constructive while the analyst board splits $27.50 to $9.50

Goldman's own call is that restrictions prove temporary and long-run demand holds through 2027 [3]. CoreWeave's quarter backs the demand half: [$3.66 billion of third-quarter revenue, up 168% year over year](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/11/63154025/why-is-cipher-digital-stock-surging-on-wednesday-2), a $132.5 billion backlog, and guidance raised to between $13 billion and $13.3 billion [2].

On Cipher itself the desks disagree by nearly three to one. [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) cut its target to $27.50 but kept an overweight rating; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut the stock to market perform at $9.50 on November 4, the day after the election [9]. The gap likely turns on how much of Cipher's Texas pipeline each desk thinks a pause can stop.

*Chart: **Cipher targets run from $9.50 to $27.50 against a $7.11 close** Bars chart of analyst price targets for Cipher Digital from $9.50 at KBW to $27.50 at Morgan Stanley, with a reference line at the $7.11 close*

*Price targets in dollars per share from analyst notes dated September 21 to November 9, 2026; consensus average across 20 analysts (15 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell). Reference line is the November 11 close. [6][9]*

## Rent has started; the ramp waits on January 19

Black Pearl has begun paying rent. Barber Lake's first 51 megawatts are declared ready for service, with halls energizing from this quarter into early 2027, and Cipher reports again in February with lease revenue on its own line [6]. The Texas Tribune's read is that approvals could stay paused until legislators pass new laws [4]; Hinojosa takes office on January 19, between the first rent and most of the ramp.

## Takeaway

Goldman puts 45% of the 586 GW US data center pipeline in states leaning toward a pause, and Cipher's $16.6 billion of Texas leases sit on $5.6 billion of debt.

## Sources

1. [Pluang, Texas data center approval freeze sends Applied Digital and peers down 13-17%, 6 November 2026](https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/applied-digital-cipher-digital-terawulf-turun-karena-kekhawatiran-data-center)
2. [Benzinga, Why Is Cipher Digital Stock Surging on Wednesday?, 11 November 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/11/63154025/why-is-cipher-digital-stock-surging-on-wednesday-2)
3. [Crypto Briefing, Goldman Sachs warns state moratoria could hit 45% of US data center capacity, 11 November 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-state-moratoria-data-center-capacity/)
4. [The Texas Tribune, Gina Hinojosa won the governor's race. What happens to Texas data centers now?, 4 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/gina-hinojosa-won-the-governor-s-race-what-happens-to-texas-data-centers-now/ar-AA2gL2R4)
5. [Reuters, Texas data centers face uncertain future after Hinojosa wins governor's race, 4 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/texas-data-centers-face-uncertain-future-after-hinojosa-wins-governor-s-race/ar-AA2gKRSS)
6. [Trefis, Can Cipher Digital Stock Double From Here?, 12 November 2026](https://www.trefis.com/stock/cifr/articles/624575/can-cipher-digital-stock-double-from-here/2026-11-12)
7. [InvestorsHub, Cipher Digital reports $27 million in Q3 revenue as HPC leasing begins and contracted revenue reaches $9.1 billion at Barber Lake, 2 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/cipher-digital-reports-27-million-in-q3-revenue-as-hpc-leasing-begins-and-contracted-revenue-reaches-9-1-billion-at-barber-lake/ar-AA2gANvc)
8. [Cipher Mining, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001819989)
9. [MarketBeat, Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR) Stock Price Target Cut by Morgan Stanley, 9 November 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-cipher-mining-nasdaq-cifr-stock-price-target-cut-by-morgan-stanley-2026-11-09/)


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Goldman maps 45% of the 586 GW US data center pipeline into states that may pause it; 199 GW is being built — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-maps-45-of-the-586-gw-us-data-center-pipeline-into-states-that-may-pause-it-199-gw-is-being-built