--- title: "Goldman Sachs recorded the fastest exit of hedge funds from the tech sector in its history — and started selling the hedge" description: "The market is pricing in three more Fed rate hikes, while Goldman Sachs economists expect one — in December. This gap determines whether the debt machine of AI will continue to pay the banks that built it. Goldman Sachs is hedged on both sides of the unwinding. For Morgan Stanley to continue setting fee records, the borrowing must not stop." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Markets" published: 2026-10-20T16:28:58.547Z modified: 2026-10-20T16:28:58.547Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-recorded-the-fastest-hedge-fund-tech-exit-in-its-history-then-started-selling-the-hedge/ru language: ru keywords: "Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Hedge Funds, Federal Reserve, AI Debt" --- # Goldman Sachs recorded the fastest exit of hedge funds from the tech sector in its history — and started selling the hedge > The market is pricing in three more Fed rate hikes, while Goldman Sachs economists expect one — in December. This gap determines whether the debt machine of AI will continue to pay the banks that built it. Goldman Sachs is hedged on both sides of the unwinding. For Morgan Stanley to continue setting fee records, the borrowing must not stop. Hedge funds over the five trading sessions up to October 15 [cut their holdings in the tech sector more strongly than ever](https://cryptobriefing.com/hedge-funds-retreat-tech-stocks-goldman/) in the entire history of the prime brokerage statistics of [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) — it has been kept since 2016 [1]. The Nasdaq 100 index showed the worst weekly result since April 2025 [1]. At [CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave) — a «neo-cloud» (neocloud), i.e. a cloud provider specializing in AI that builds data centers on borrowed money, — the yield of its bonds rose above 15% amid concerns about the company's debt [1]. The capabilities of the models have not changed; the cost of the debt that builds them has changed. This is a rate-driven repricing of a trade overcrowded with participants — and the bank that recorded this exit spent that same week selling the hedge against it. ## The unwinding of positions is about money, not models The market is pricing in three more Fed rate hikes, while the chief economist of Goldman Sachs expects only one — in December [2]. The yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds exceeds 5,25% [3]. Since the beginning of the year valuation multiples on Nasdaq have compressed by about one fifth [3]. When the price of the money that builds data centers rises, leveraged positions in the shares of chip-owning companies are the first to unwind: fundamental long/short funds lost 2,9% over the week, losing money every day [1]. The chief strategist of [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) [believes that the market correction has entered its final stage](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/20/were-in-the-final-innings-of-the-market-correction-says-morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson.html) and names earnings, free cash flow and the industrial sector as the next market leaders [4] [5]. ## Both sides were sold from the same building 16 октября Goldman [запустил корзину «Anti-AI Replacement»](https://gmteight.com/flash/detail/1209334): длинные позиции — в компаниях, внедряющих ИИ, от [Cloudflare](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cloudflare) и [CrowdStrike](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/crowdstrike) до [Palantir](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/palantir), [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle) и [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft); короткие — в разработчиках workflow-софта, который ИИ может автоматизировать: от Monday.com и [Salesforce](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/salesforce) до [DocuSign](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/docusign), [Accenture](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/accenture) и [ServiceNow](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/servicenow) [6]. 19 октября фондовое подразделение Goldman повысило рекомендацию по акциям CoreWeave до «покупать», снизив целевую цену с $139 до $106. Аргумент: свыше $51 млрд долга компании — это в основном кредиты, обеспеченные активами (asset-backed loans), стоимость которых растёт лишь на 100–200 базисных пунктов [7]. Одно подразделение зафиксировало исход, другое — монетизировало противоположную сторону. ## Для банков проверкой станет декабрь Morgan Stanley заработала $2,3 млрд комиссионных от операций на рынках капитала в первом полугодии — второй результат в мире — после того как [разместила более $40 млрд долгов под строительство ИИ-инфраструктуры](https://manilatimes.com/vvnbke-morgan-stanley-builds-a-wall-street-lead-in-ai-infrastructure-finance) [8]. Квартальная выручка банка обновляла рекорды по мере наращивания этих заимствований и в минувшем квартале достигла $21,3 млрд [9]. [Goldman зарабатывает на раскрутке позиций с обеих сторон](https://theinference.org/article/goldman-collects-the-ai-boom-s-fees-and-leaves-the-debt-on-other-balance-sheets): деск прайм-брокериджа зарабатывает на обороте клиентов, а корзина продаёт сам хедж. Morgan Stanley нужно, чтобы бум продолжал занимать деньги. Следить стоит за решением ФРС в декабре и за тем, не вырастет ли стоимость заимствований под обеспечение активами сильнее скромного удорожания, которое прогнозируют аналитики Goldman [7]. Если это произойдёт, замедлится выдача новых кредитов — а вместе с ней и двигатель комиссионных доходов, стоящий за этой рекордной выручкой. *Chart: **Выручка Morgan Stanley продолжает бить рекорды по мере разрастания долгового цикла ИИ** Линейный график квартальной чистой выручки Morgan Stanley с III квартала 2023 года по II квартал 2026 года: рост примерно с $13,3 млрд до рекордных $21,3 млрд в последнем отображённом квартале.* *Квартальная чистая выручка, млрд долл.; отчётность Morgan Stanley в SEC, данные получены 20 октября 2026 года. [9]* ## Takeaway The market is pricing in three Fed rate hikes, while Goldman Sachs economists expect one — in December. This decision determines whether the debt machine of AI will continue to pay the banks that built it, and Goldman Sachs is hedged on both sides of the answer. ## Sources 1. [Crypto Briefing, Hedge funds cut tech stocks at fastest pace in a decade, Goldman Sachs says, 19 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/hedge-funds-retreat-tech-stocks-goldman/) 2. [Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Joins CNBC to Discuss His Outlook for the US Economy, recorded 2 October 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/videos/cnbc-jan-hatzius-outlook-for-us-economy) 3. [Goldman Sachs, AI Is Becoming a Stock Picker's Market (The Markets podcast with Peter Callahan), recorded 30 September 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/ai-is-becoming-a-stock-pickers-market) 4. [CNBC, We're in the final innings of the market correction, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, 20 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/20/were-in-the-final-innings-of-the-market-correction-says-morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson.html) 5. [Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg), Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sees Earnings-Led Upturn in Industrials, 5 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-wilson-sees-earnings-101609453.html) 6. [GMTEight, Goldman Sachs launches Anti-AI Replacement thematic stock basket, 20 October 2026](https://gmteight.com/flash/detail/1209334) 7. [CNBC, Not all neoclouds are created equal: Goldman Sachs says buy the dip on CoreWeave, 19 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/buy-neocloud-stock-coreweave-goldman-sachs-says.html) 8. [Manila Times, Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance, 4 October 2026](https://manilatimes.com/vvnbke-morgan-stanley-builds-a-wall-street-lead-in-ai-infrastructure-finance) 9. [Morgan Stanley, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 20 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000895421) --- Goldman Sachs recorded the fastest exit of hedge funds from the tech sector in its history — and started selling the hedge — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-recorded-the-fastest-hedge-fund-tech-exit-in-its-history-then-started-selling-the-hedge/ru