--- title: "对冲基金以史上最快速度撤离科技股，高盛随即开卖对冲产品" description: "市场定价显示美联储还将加息三次，高盛经济学家却预计12月仅加息一次；这一分歧，决定着AI债务机器能否继续为建造它的银行\"付钱\"。平仓潮的两端，高盛都已布好对冲。摩根士丹利费用收入连创纪录的势头，则要靠这场举债延续下去。" publisher: "The Inference" section: "Markets" published: 2026-10-20T16:28:58.547Z modified: 2026-10-20T16:28:58.547Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-recorded-the-fastest-hedge-fund-tech-exit-in-its-history-then-started-selling-the-hedge/zh-CN language: zh-CN keywords: "Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Hedge Funds, Federal Reserve, AI Debt" --- # 对冲基金以史上最快速度撤离科技股，高盛随即开卖对冲产品 > 市场定价显示美联储还将加息三次，高盛经济学家却预计12月仅加息一次；这一分歧，决定着AI债务机器能否继续为建造它的银行"付钱"。平仓潮的两端，高盛都已布好对冲。摩根士丹利费用收入连创纪录的势头，则要靠这场举债延续下去。 在截至10月15日的五个交易日里，对冲基金[减持科技股](https://cryptobriefing.com/hedge-funds-retreat-tech-stocks-goldman/)，百分比降幅创[高盛](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs)大宗经纪业务自2016年有记录以来最大[1]。纳斯达克100指数创2025年4月以来最差单周表现[1]。[CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave)是一家靠举债建设数据中心的"新型云"（Neocloud，即专注AI的云服务商），受债务担忧拖累，其债券收益率升破15%[1]。模型能做什么，没有任何变化；变了的，是建造这些模型的债务成本。这是一场由利率驱动的拥挤交易重新定价，而记录下这场撤离的那家银行，同一周里已经卖起了对应的对冲产品。 ## 这轮平仓潮关乎资金，而非模型 市场定价显示美联储还将加息三次，而高盛首席经济学家预计，12月仅会加息一次[2]。十年期美债收益率目前高于5.25%[3]。今年迄今，纳斯达克估值倍数已压缩约两成[3]。建造数据中心的资金价格一旦上涨，持有芯片股的高杠杆头寸便最先平仓：基本面多空基金一周亏损2.9%，天天都在亏钱[1]。[摩根士丹利](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley)首席策略师[称本轮调整已进入"最后一局"](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/20/were-in-the-final-innings-of-the-market-correction-says-morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson.html)，并指出盈利、自由现金流和工业股将领跑下一阶段[4] [5]。 ## 同一栋楼，两边都卖 10月16日，高盛[推出"反AI替代"股票篮子](https://gmteight.com/flash/detail/1209334)：一边做多落地应用AI的公司，从[Cloudflare](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cloudflare)、[CrowdStrike](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/crowdstrike)到[Palantir](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/palantir)、[甲骨文](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle)和[微软](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft)；一边做空可能被AI自动化的工作流软件，从Monday.com、[Salesforce](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/salesforce)到[DocuSign](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/docusign)、[埃森哲](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/accenture)和[ServiceNow](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/servicenow)[6]。10月19日，该行股票部门将CoreWeave评级上调至"买入"，目标价却从139美元下调至106美元，理由是这家公司逾510亿美元的债务大多为资产支持贷款，成本仅上升100至200个基点[7]。记录这轮撤退的是一个部门，把另一边做成生意的，是另一个部门。 ## 对银行而言，12月才是大考 摩根士丹利上半年录得资本市场费用23亿美元，位居全球第二，此前该公司已[承销逾400亿美元的AI建设债务](https://manilatimes.com/vvnbke-morgan-stanley-builds-a-wall-street-lead-in-ai-infrastructure-finance)[8]。随着这轮借款不断累积，季度营收屡创新高，上季度达到213亿美元[9]。[高盛在这场平仓潮中两头赚钱](https://theinference.org/article/goldman-collects-the-ai-boom-s-fees-and-leaves-the-debt-on-other-balance-sheets)：大宗经纪部门赚的是换手的钱，股票篮子卖的正是对冲。摩根士丹利则需要这场热潮继续借下去。 接下来盯住两件事：12月美联储议息决议，以及资产支持贷款的融资成本会不会升破高盛分析师预计的温和涨幅[7]。一旦升破，债务发起就会放缓，撑起那些创纪录营收的费用引擎也将随之放慢。 *Chart: **AI债务周期越滚越大，摩根士丹利营收连创新高** 折线图：摩根士丹利2023年第三季度至2026年第二季度的季度净营收，从约133亿美元升至图示最后一个季度创纪录的213亿美元。* *摩根士丹利季度净营收，单位：十亿美元；数据来自该公司提交给SEC的文件，检索于2026年10月20日。 [9]* ## Takeaway 市场定价显示美联储将加息三次，高盛经济学家却预计12月仅加息一次；这个决定将决定AI债务机器能否继续为建造它的银行"付钱"，而无论答案落在哪一端，高盛都已布好对冲。 ## Sources 1. [Crypto Briefing, Hedge funds cut tech stocks at fastest pace in a decade, Goldman Sachs says, 19 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/hedge-funds-retreat-tech-stocks-goldman/) 2. [Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Joins CNBC to Discuss His Outlook for the US Economy, recorded 2 October 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/videos/cnbc-jan-hatzius-outlook-for-us-economy) 3. [Goldman Sachs, AI Is Becoming a Stock Picker's Market (The Markets podcast with Peter Callahan), recorded 30 September 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets/ai-is-becoming-a-stock-pickers-market) 4. [CNBC, We're in the final innings of the market correction, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, 20 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/20/were-in-the-final-innings-of-the-market-correction-says-morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson.html) 5. [Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg), Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sees Earnings-Led Upturn in Industrials, 5 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-wilson-sees-earnings-101609453.html) 6. [GMTEight, Goldman Sachs launches Anti-AI Replacement thematic stock basket, 20 October 2026](https://gmteight.com/flash/detail/1209334) 7. [CNBC, Not all neoclouds are created equal: Goldman Sachs says buy the dip on CoreWeave, 19 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/buy-neocloud-stock-coreweave-goldman-sachs-says.html) 8. [Manila Times, Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance, 4 October 2026](https://manilatimes.com/vvnbke-morgan-stanley-builds-a-wall-street-lead-in-ai-infrastructure-finance) 9. [Morgan Stanley, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 20 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000895421) --- 对冲基金以史上最快速度撤离科技股，高盛随即开卖对冲产品 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-recorded-the-fastest-hedge-fund-tech-exit-in-its-history-then-started-selling-the-hedge/zh-CN