---
title: "Goldman told clients to hedge AI risk as its bankers stand to collect $79 million leading Anthropic's IPO"
description: "The bank's 2027 outlook, published four days before pricing, sees AI investment slowing early next year and two Fed hikes. The same firm's underwriters stand to collect about $79 million on a listing valued near $1.4 trillion."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Deals"
published: 2026-11-15T17:21:33.920Z
modified: 2026-11-15T17:21:33.920Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-told-clients-to-hedge-ai-risk-as-its-bankers-stand-to-collect-79-million-leading-anthropic-s-ipo
language: en
keywords: "Anthropic, Goldman Sachs, IPOs, Investment Banking, AI Trade"
---

# Goldman told clients to hedge AI risk as its bankers stand to collect $79 million leading Anthropic's IPO

> The bank's 2027 outlook, published four days before pricing, sees AI investment slowing early next year and two Fed hikes. The same firm's underwriters stand to collect about $79 million on a listing valued near $1.4 trillion.

## The week the AI trade gets priced

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh opens it on Monday, November 16, hosting [the Fed's first public conference on AI's economic effects](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/fed-warsh-ai-task-force-nvidia-earnings) in San Francisco, the first public event of the task forces he created after taking office in May [1][2]. [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) reports on November 17 under interim chief [Colette Kress](https://theinference.org/markets/people/colette-kress), after [Jensen Huang](https://theinference.org/markets/people/jensen-huang) resigned as chief executive [3]. Then [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic) prices on November 18 and starts trading on Nasdaq as ANT on the 19th [3][4].

[The filing](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-of-70-to-78-in-upcoming-ipo.html) sells 825 million shares at $70 to $78, raising up to about $64 billion and valuing the maker of Claude at up to roughly $1.4 trillion fully diluted [4]. Weeks earlier the company had contemplated $2 trillion; its May funding round valued it at $965 billion [4].

*Chart: **Anthropic's IPO prices well below the $2 trillion it floated weeks earlier** Column chart of Anthropic's valuation in three steps: $965 billion at its May 2026 funding round, $2 trillion contemplated in October 2026, and up to $1.4 trillion at the top of its IPO price range.*

*Implied fully diluted valuation, in US dollars. The May round and the $70 to $78 IPO range come from CNBC's November 10, 2026 report; the $2 trillion level is one the company contemplated weeks before pricing, not a valuation it achieved. [4]*

## One bank, two desks

[Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) Research published [its 2027 outlook, "Growing Pains,"](https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-2027-outlook-ai-risk/) on November 14 [5]. It sees global AI investment rising from $1.1 trillion this year to $1.8 trillion in 2027, adding 0.4 point to world growth, and it tells clients to hedge AI-related risk, flagging an early peak in AI spending among its three main downside risks [5]. Its economists expect the Fed to [hike in December and again in March](https://theinference.org/article/october-cpi-locks-in-a-december-hike-that-lands-three-weeks-after-anthropic-s-90-billion-ipo-prices), with producer prices already up 6.5 percent year over year in October [5][6][3].

On the banking side, the same firm sells the trade. Goldman and [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) lead a 22-bank syndicate [7], and [Evercore](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/evercore) ISI [puts the fee pool near $395 million](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-11-2026/card/big-banks-could-bring-in-roughly-395-million-in-fees-from-anthropic-ipo-hxVta5RJ2ZKGTO0bCbwm), roughly $79 million each for the two leads [8][9]. Goldman president John Waldron will interview Anthropic president Daniela Amodei and finance chief Krishna Rao in front of wealth clients, and trading, lending and wealth revenue follow the listing whichever way the shares trade [9]. Goldman had already [pulled Anthropic's Claude Code off its bankers' machines](https://theinference.org/article/goldman-sachs-pulls-claude-code-and-github-from-its-bankers-two-weeks-before-anthropic-s-1-5-trillion-ipo) before the roadshow [9].

*Chart: **Lead banks take about $79 million each from Anthropic's $395 million fee pool** Bar chart of estimated underwriting fees by bank for Anthropic's IPO, in millions of US dollars.*

*Evercore ISI estimates of underwriting fees, reported November 11, 2026, by The Wall Street Journal; figures rise if the offering sizes up. Excludes trading, securities lending and wealth revenue. [8]*

## The fee is certain, the direction is not

IPO buyers take the other side of that ledger. Anthropic booked $33.2 billion of revenue in nine months, up roughly twelvefold, against $895.4 billion of committed spend, mostly compute; run-rate revenue hit about $81 billion in October [3][4]. Strategic investors, Nvidia and Google at $10 billion each, take $26 billion of stock at the IPO price [7], and about a fifth of the deal is earmarked for retail investors, double the norm [4]. The book is already covered at the range, CNBC reported, with demand stronger than [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex)'s at the same stage [4].

The hedge case runs through the Fed. Officials increasingly worry the buildout itself is driving prices up, and Warsh's task forces [owe their findings by year end](https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/feds-warsh-to-take-stock-of-ai-revolution-as-us-public-grows-wary/ar-AA2hmn25) [1][2]. [Dario Amodei](https://theinference.org/markets/people/dario-amodei), Anthropic's chief executive, promised to "underpromise and overdeliver" [9]. The bankers get paid on the deal; everyone else gets paid on the direction.

## Takeaway

Goldman's research desk told clients to hedge AI risk four days before the same firm's bankers priced Anthropic's IPO, a listing valued near $1.4 trillion that pays the two lead underwriters about $79 million each.

## Sources

1. [TheStreet, "Nvidia earnings collide with Fed's biggest AI challenge under Warsh," 15 November 2026](https://www.thestreet.com/fed/fed-warsh-ai-task-force-nvidia-earnings)
2. [Reuters (via MSN), "Fed's Warsh to take stock of AI revolution as US public grows wary," 13 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/feds-warsh-to-take-stock-of-ai-revolution-as-us-public-grows-wary/ar-AA2hmn25)
3. [Yahoo Finance, "Nvidia's first post-Jensen earnings and Anthropic's IPO: What to watch this week," 15 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/nvidias-first-post-jensen-earnings-and-anthropics-ipo-what-to-watch-this-week-110000732.html)
4. [CNBC, "Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78, looks to start trading Nov. 19, sources say," 10 November 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-of-70-to-78-in-upcoming-ipo.html)
5. [Crypto Briefing, "Goldman Sachs forecasts stable growth, warns on AI trade in 2027 outlook," 14 November 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-2027-outlook-ai-risk/)
6. [Zee Business, "Cheaper crude, AI boom to drive growth: Goldman Sachs sees global GDP at 2.8%, India at 7.2%," 15 November 2026](https://www.zeebiz.com/economy-infra/news-cheaper-crude-ai-boom-to-drive-growth-goldman-sachs-sees-global-gdp-at-28-india-at-72-405572)
7. [FinanceFeeds, "Anthropic IPO Date: $70-$78 Price Range Set, Trading From 19 November," 11 November 2026](https://financefeeds.com/anthropic-ipo-date-price-range-70-78-trading-19-november/)
8. [The Wall Street Journal, "Big Banks Could Bring In Roughly $395 Million in Fees From Anthropic IPO," 11 November 2026](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-11-2026/card/big-banks-could-bring-in-roughly-395-million-in-fees-from-anthropic-ipo-hxVta5RJ2ZKGTO0bCbwm)
9. [Yahoo Finance, "Anthropic IPO to test Wall Street's faith in AI as skepticism mounts," 14 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/anthropic-ipo-to-test-wall-streets-faith-in-ai-as-skepticism-mounts-180007104.html)


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Goldman told clients to hedge AI risk as its bankers stand to collect $79 million leading Anthropic's IPO — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/goldman-told-clients-to-hedge-ai-risk-as-its-bankers-stand-to-collect-79-million-leading-anthropic-s-ipo