--- title: "Hanmi Semiconductor's near-monopoly in HBM stacking missed its quarter by 23%, and its replacement slipped too" description: "Hanmi Semiconductor, which builds most of the machines that stack HBM memory for AI chips, missed third-quarter consensus by about 23 percent on slipped bonder deliveries; CLSA estimates Micron drove the quarter while SK hynix contributed no revenue. The hybrid-bonding tools meant to displace Hanmi's machines are being delayed too, which extends the incumbent's runway and leaves its delivery schedule as the open risk." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-02T20:05:45.987Z modified: 2026-11-02T20:05:45.987Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/hanmi-semiconductor-s-near-monopoly-in-hbm-stacking-missed-its-quarter-by-23-and-its-replacement-slipped-too language: en keywords: "HBM, Semiconductors, Chip Equipment, Earnings, Memory" --- # Hanmi Semiconductor's near-monopoly in HBM stacking missed its quarter by 23%, and its replacement slipped too > Hanmi Semiconductor, which builds most of the machines that stack HBM memory for AI chips, missed third-quarter consensus by about 23 percent on slipped bonder deliveries; CLSA estimates Micron drove the quarter while SK hynix contributed no revenue. The hybrid-bonding tools meant to displace Hanmi's machines are being delayed too, which extends the incumbent's runway and leaves its delivery schedule as the open risk. [Hanmi Semiconductor's](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/hanmi-semiconductor) third quarter, reported on October 30, missed market consensus by about 23 percent for a mundane reason: bonders due to ship in the quarter slipped into the fourth, the brokerage CLSA said [1]. CLSA estimates that [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron), the US memory maker, drove the quarter's results, with no revenue contribution from [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) [1]. That is the sequel to our [October 22 report](https://theinference.org/article/micron-named-hanmi-semiconductor-top-supplier-a-second-year-against-morgan-stanley-s-sell-case-on-hbm-bonders) that Micron had named Hanmi a top supplier for a second year: what is new since is a quarter paid for by a single customer, and a slip by the technology meant to replace Hanmi's tools. ## A near-monopoly can still miss its quarter High-bandwidth memory is DRAM dies stacked on a logic base, and the thermocompression (TC) bonder is the machine that fuses each layer on with heat and force. Hanmi holds [71.2 percent of that tool market worldwide, on TechInsights' tracking](https://eastasiabrief.com/semiconductors/hanmi-semiconductor-cements-71-share-hbm-tc-bonder-tools-1004) [3], and the [50.2 percent operating margin it printed this quarter](https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=146082) is what the industry pays for the assembly bottleneck [2]. What a bottleneck cannot do is set its own calendar. Revenue collapsed in the first quarter when memory makers paused capex for the HBM4 changeover, set a record in the second, and the third landed between the two [3]. *Chart: **Hanmi's 2026 quarters swing from collapse to record on delivery timing** Bar chart of Hanmi Semiconductor's 2026 quarterly revenue: a first-quarter collapse, a second-quarter record, a third-quarter shortfall on deferred deliveries* *Consolidated quarterly revenue, billion won. A record fourth quarter is guided, not yet reported. Sources: East Asia Brief; Yonhap Infomax. [3][2]* ## The customer list is the fragility SK hynix, the world's largest HBM maker and Hanmi's anchor buyer, has opened secondary-sourcing assessments with the Korean rival Hanwha Semitech [3]. The split began in 2024, when SK hynix added ASMPT, a Singapore-based chip-tool maker, to its bonder suppliers [4]. Hanwha followed with a first order in March 2025, and Hanmi answered with a patent suit against it; SK hynix [still bought Hanmi's HBM4-generation bonder this June](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318013/20260609/sk-hynix-orders-hanmi-tc-bonder-45-griffin-hbm4-first-griffin-contract-worth-287m.htm) [4]. The tools keep selling, but the buying is shared now. ## The challenger slipped too [Besi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/be-semiconductor), the Dutch maker of hybrid bonding tools, which fuse copper pads directly and were expected to displace TC bonding as stacks get taller, acknowledged in its third-quarter results that memory customers are delaying adoption [1]. CLSA now expects thermocompression to hold while stacking stays at 16 layers or fewer, with cost and yield blocking mass-production qualification of the alternative [1]; a hybrid bonder costs more than three times a TC bonder [4]. [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials), the US chip-equipment maker, [agreed last week to lift its Besi stake to about 20 percent](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/besi-stock-rises-applied-materials-130044741.html), adding to its 2025 investment [5]. Big capital is still behind the challenger, on a longer timeline than the market assumed. ## What decides the fourth quarter CLSA kept its 300,000 won target on November 2 and sees Samsung possibly adopting Hanmi's bonders for HBM4E, the generation after HBM4, from 2027 [1]. [Hanmi guides to a record fourth quarter](https://theinference.org/article/the-only-confirmed-buyer-in-hanmi-s-hbm-rally-is-its-own-chairman), a third straight record year and its highest-ever dividend [2]. Those are expectations, and they rest on shipments that have already moved once. [An October report relayed by 24/7 Wall St](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sk-hynix-delays-hbm4-equipment-124539129.html) said some of SK hynix's HBM4 back-end equipment orders, planned for this half, may slip into next year; it named no suppliers, and SK hynix did not comment [6]. CLSA names further shipment delays as the key downside risk [1], and shareholders here are betting that tools deferred once actually ship this quarter. ## Takeaway Hanmi Semiconductor's 23 percent Q3 miss came from slipped bonder deliveries, not lost demand; the hybrid-bonding challenger is delayed too, so the record Q4 guidance and its 2027 Samsung HBM4E hope now rest on shipments that have already moved once. ## Sources 1. [The Asia Business Daily, Hanmi Semiconductor: Fourth-Quarter Recovery and Customer Diversification Expected, Target Price Maintained at 300,000 Won, 2 November 2026](https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026110214484021685) 2. [Yonhap Infomax, Hanmi Semiconductor Q3 Operating Profit Hits 90.8 Billion Won, Up 34% YoY, 30 October 2026](https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=146082) 3. [East Asia Brief, Hanmi Semiconductor cements 71% share in HBM TC bonder tools, collected 2 November 2026](https://eastasiabrief.com/semiconductors/hanmi-semiconductor-cements-71-share-hbm-tc-bonder-tools-1004) 4. [TechTimes, SK hynix Orders Hanmi TC Bonder 4.5 Griffin for HBM4: First Griffin Contract Worth $28.7M, 9 June 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318013/20260609/sk-hynix-orders-hanmi-tc-bonder-45-griffin-hbm4-first-griffin-contract-worth-287m.htm) 5. [Yahoo Finance (GuruFocus), Besi Stock Rises as Applied Materials Lifts Stake to 20%, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/besi-stock-rises-applied-materials-130044741.html) 6. [Yahoo Finance (24/7 Wall St), SK Hynix Delays HBM4 Equipment Orders as Its Stock Falls 5 Days Straight, 14 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sk-hynix-delays-hbm4-equipment-124539129.html) --- Hanmi Semiconductor's near-monopoly in HBM stacking missed its quarter by 23%, and its replacement slipped too — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/hanmi-semiconductor-s-near-monopoly-in-hbm-stacking-missed-its-quarter-by-23-and-its-replacement-slipped-too